• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, stock .
• index futures are slightly below fair value. .
• We do have some economic numbers coming .
• out this morning, but the world is going to sit and wait for the Fed meeting. .
• And that event starts this afternoon after 2:00 PM. .
• Now, the month of October was a pretty crappy month. .
• This is a pretty good image to sum it up. .
• My pumpkin just looked at the chart of the Russell 2000. .
• And yeah, a lot of people are feeling that way right now. .
• When we look at the month of November, .
• statistically, it is a bullish month about 80 % of the time. .
• What these particular numbers and dates don't show you is that we can always start .
• the November rally from a lower or lower than where we are right now. .
• So just because you have statistics that say that we're going to be up 80 % of the .
• time doesn't mean you jump in with both feet right now. .
• We may actually be able to jump in with both feet later at a lower price point. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• For the month of October, the S&P 500 was .
• down 2.17 %, still up over nine % year to date. .
• The Nasdaq was down 2.07 %, still up over 31 % year to date. .
• A little more weakness in the Russell .
• 2000, down nearly 7% for the month, down nearly 6% year to date. .
• And then when we look at the microcap .
• stocks, we're down over seven % for the month, down over 13 % year to date. .
• And if you look back, you can see that .
• we're trading back at levels from 2019, 2020. .
• Then looking at the Canadian market, the .
• TSX was down 3.42 %, down 2.64 % year to date. .
• And then looking at the Venture exchange, .
• we're down 7.66 % for the month of October, down nearly 10 % year to date. .
• And again, we're going back to levels we haven't seen since 2019, 2020. .
• Now looking at daily charts, the VIX came down yesterday. .
• It is back on a sell signal that's supported for higher stock prices. .
• This tells us that options traders are a .
• little less cautious coming into November first. .
• We did see the DAO trade up into the channel yesterday. .
• The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both traded .
• up to the lower channel line, so still no buy signals just yet. .
• The Russell 2000 also traded up to the .
• lower channel line, and the microcap sector closed in the channel. .
• Looking at the Canadian market, the .
• iShares for the TSX 60 had an inside day yesterday. .
• Now, one of the stocks that helped hold .
• the TSX in check on Tuesday was the biggest loser on Monday, and it continued .
• to move lower on Tuesday, and that's First Quantum. .
• We came into Monday's trading action already on a daily sell signal, a weekly .
• sell signal, and position traders were also on a sell signal. .
• So really, nobody was very bullish on this stock coming into Monday's trading action. .
• And the biggest loser on the S&P 500 on .
• Monday also continued to move lower on Tuesday, and that was On Semiconductor. .
• Again, already on a weekly sell signal and .
• position traders were already on a sell signal. .
• So no real surprise that the stock continued to move lower. .
• Of course, what was an open gap on the way .
• down would probably act as resistance on the way back up. .
• Now, in the pre-market this morning, Paycom is down sharply in the premarket. .
• We also Advanced Micro Devices unwinding some of the gains from yesterday. .
• In both cases, no change in trend. .
• If you're short either of those stocks, you can continue to remain short. .
• Now, while the world is waiting for the Fed, a lot of the financial community is .
• watching the Japanese Central Bank and Japanese stocks and higher after Bank .
• of Japan allows greater flexibility in yields. .
• They may start to pump up their interest rates over the next little while. .
• That hasn't started yet, but it may start anytime. .
• Japanese stocks were up yesterday. .
• We expect a lot more volatility out of the Japanese market. .
• If we look at what happened in the .
• currency market, you can see on Monday, we had a buy signal. .
• Tuesday, a big reversal to the downside for the Japanese Yen. .
• And then compare that to the US dollar. .
• Us dollar is still fairly stable. .
• We entered this trading range back in the .
• middle of September and have been trading sideways ever since. .
• So they're probably waiting for the Fed .
• meeting or some major catalyst to help move the currency market. .
• If we look at the midterm chart for the US .
• dollar index, you can see that we're down near 105, and that's where a real change .
• in trend would happen if the US dollar index were to come down below that level. .
• Let's do a quick update on our seven stocks. .
• Actually, there's eight stocks in this list this morning. .
• We have two of the eight back on buy signals, one never left. .
• If we start off with Alphabet, you can see .
• a fairly quiet trading close lower on Tuesday. .
• Amazon is on its second day of a buy signal. .
• Remember, we did this back in October, so .
• we're looking for a breakout above the October high and the open gap. .
• Then looking at the Apple, still on a sell .
• signal here, no change in trend, no change in trend for Meta, and no change in trend .
• for Microsoft, inside day on Tuesday for Microsoft. .
• Inside Day on Tuesday from Microsoft, .
• there's NVIDIA making a new low for this move on Tuesday. .
• And then we also had a new low for Tesla .
• before Tesla recovered and actually closed higher on the day. .
• Certainly, nowhere near a buy signal coming into Tuesday's trading action. .
• And last up, I added Shopify to this list, new low for Shopify on Tuesday, and then .
• came back and closed slightly higher on the day. .
• Again, no change in trend. .
• Let's finish off looking at the metals and miners. .
• Copper is on its third day of a buy signal right now. .
• At the same time, copper stocks made a new .
• closing low for this move on Tuesday, so no change in trend there. .
• It's always important to remember that if .
• you're involved in the commodity, you follow the commodity. .
• If you're involved in stocks, you follow the stocks. .
• The fact that copper may get a buy signal does not mean you do anything specifically .
• with stocks unless stocks generate a buy signal. .
• There's absolutely no reason that you use one for the other. .
• Sometimes rising metal prices can be supportive for stocks. .
• Sometimes it can't. .
• At the end of the day, you're trading stocks. .
• You're not actually trading the commodity. .
• That's also true for gold. .
• Gold pulled back yesterday. .
• It's still having trouble breaking out .
• above 2,000, and gold stocks on the GDX came back down. .
• They're still on a sell signal. .
• No change there. .
• New change in trend for the .
• AXGD, which is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
• Then looking at the price of silver still .
• in the channel, still on a buy signal, that would change on Wednesday with a .
• close below $22.71. Then we have silver stocks back on a sell signal. .
• Looking at the Silver Miners Index, the .
• SIL, that is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• The market will be sitting on its hands until 2:00 PM this afternoon. .
• I think most people think that the Fed is going to pause, but .
• it always matters what adverbs and adjectives the Fed uses when it describes .
• how it's thinking and what it may do in the future. .
• That's where all the volatility comes from. .
• So have a great day, folks. .
• And next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .