• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, and it is .
• fairly early, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. .
• So far, it looks like we're going to see a .
• little selling at the open on Tuesday morning. .
• Now, we don't have any major economic numbers coming out this week, but we do .
• have a lot of Fed speakers out there roaming the country, and that could, of .
• course, affect the market on an intraday basis. .
• We'll just have to wait and see what they say and how the market reacts. .
• Now, the VIX is still on a sell signal, so fear is still falling. .
• We're looking for a close on Tuesday above .
• $19.19 to change that, not expecting that to happen on Tuesday. .
• If you've been with us for a while, not .
• only were we looking for a sell signal in the VIX, we're also looking for a .
• breakdown of the Uptrend line and a move down below the Fly Paper channel. .
• And so far, we have got those things. .
• So we know options traders are not overly spooked at the moment. .
• Now, the stock traders are a bit tired. .
• They took the market up sharply last week. .
• Yesterday was an inside day for the S&P 500. .
• We're trading up towards the October highs, still trying to break that pattern. .
• We made a low here. .
• We made a lower high here. .
• We made a lower low here. .
• Now we're looking to see if we can break .
• that pattern and possibly put in a higher high. .
• There's lots of resistance up here at the .
• 437.50 level from October, and just above that is the top of an open gap at 438.43. .
• Those numbers are going to play an important role over the next few days. .
• Now, the first thing I look for is did we close below the previous days low? .
• We certainly didn't do that for the S&P 500. .
• We do have several open gaps below. .
• I always tell you to look at gaps ahead of us, not behind us. .
• But we are expecting a little pullback, a little consolidation this week. .
• Maybe we come down and fill that first open gap. .
• We'll just have to wait and see how things work out. .
• Now, on a short term basis, the market is very maxed out as you could expect. .
• Here is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks .
• currently trading above their five day moving average. .
• And if you look, you'll see we hit a new .
• high last week for this particular time frame. .
• And so what that tells us is that the day traders are currently maxed out. .
• They are looking to take profits right now. .
• They're looking to see what other stocks they should be in or not be in. .
• And so we'll have to give them a little time. .
• Now, a pullback here does not guarantee .
• that we go all the way from the top, all the way back down to the bottom. .
• But we do need to work off this overbot condition. .
• We can do that by, yes, pulling back. .
• But we can also do that by trading sideways for a little bit. .
• Now, for longer term investors who really haven't been participating in .
• much of the market this year, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 .
• currently trading above their 200 day moving average, we're coming off a low, .
• but certainly not as low as we've previously been. .
• This chart goes all the way back to 2020. .
• If we're going to have a year end or .
• Christmas rally, why can't we just go back up to the highs from 2023? .
• That could certainly be doable. .
• That's not too far away, and that would .
• certainly take a large percentage of the stock market up. .
• Of course, if we can eventually break out above those highs, then getting back to .
• the 2020 highs would certainly be a new bull market for the overall stock market. .
• We're certainly getting ahead of ourselves. .
• If we can just get from here back here, .
• that would be an incredible year and rally for the market. .
• Looking at the Canadian market, the .
• iShares for the TSX 60, we're certainly projecting higher prices here. .
• We've got an open gap to get over. .
• We've got mathematical targets to get over. .
• We did have a pullback yesterday, or expecting a pullback today given the fact .
• that crude oil and gold are trading lower in the premarket this morning. .
• Those commodities are so much more .
• important to the Canadian market than the US market. .
• You can see we're trying to get to 30. .
• 47, and just above that is an open gap at 30.66. The US market has a wall. .
• There's the Canadian markets wall up at those levels. .
• Now, what can hold the Canadian market back? .
• Well, there's the financials, and they ran into a wall at 343.75. .
• Energy stocks have just put in a lower high, and they're starting to pull back. .
• There's certainly the possibility of a new .
• daily, short term sell signal for the energy sector on Tuesday. .
• Then looking at gold stocks, looks like .
• they also put in a lower high on Friday, pulled back on Monday, expecting another .
• pullback today with the price of gold trading lower this morning. .
• You can see on the index, we were trying .
• to get above 281.25. We traded above it for a couple of .
• days, but couldn't hold any gains up there. .
• Now we're going to be looking to see if we .
• can hold 265.63. You can see that acted as support .
• last week, so we'll have to see if we can hold that. .
• Then looking at Canadian Infotech, we ran into 187.50 and stopped. .
• We've been dealing with that for the past couple of days. .
• You can see back in August, .
• we had a nice high up there, which was higher than the previous high. .
• That was a little bit of a fake out, but .
• looking to see if we can break out above 187.50 for Infotech. .
• Then looking at telecom services, again, .
• we ran into resistance at 168.75, looking to see if we can take that out. .
• You can see that 175 is a legitimate target. .
• Now we're trying to break this pattern of lower highs and lower lows. .
• I think the best stock to watch to see if that happens is Apple. .
• You can see we made a low in September, then another low in October. .
• We made a lower high in October. .
• Now, we're looking to see if we can change that pattern. .
• That would be very important for the overall market. .
• This is the most widely held stock in the world. .
• Our mathematical price target for resistance right now is 181.25. .
• If we can take that out, then 187.50 comes into play. .
• Let's finish off this morning's presentation looking at commodities. .
• Copper made a new high for this move yesterday. .
• Gold, on the other hand, has been treading water for the past few days. .
• On Tuesday, we're looking for a close below 1978 to give us a sell signal. .
• For silver, we're looking for a close .
• below 22.67 on Tuesday to give us a sell signal. .
• Crude oil already on a sell signal. .
• Looks like it may make a lower low for this move today, and that would take us .
• down towards the $75 level as our next target. .
• Then natural gas back on a sell signal. .
• Natural gas, of course, is nicknamed the widowmaker because it is .
• so volatile and has a lot of trouble holding a trend for any length of time. .
• Looking at the Fly Paper channel, we .
• traded slightly above it back in early October. .
• We did not break away from it. .
• We really need natural gas to break away .
• and then that would tell us that a new bull market in natural gas is starting. .
• That is certainly not the case on Tuesday morning. .
• Okay folks, that is all for Tuesday morning. .
• We are looking for some selling at the .
• open, but we're not looking for a lot of damage to be caused on Tuesday morning. .
• Have a great day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .