• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. In the premarket this morning, stock index .
• futures are flat, commodities are slightly lower. .
• Now, we do have energy numbers coming out at 10:30 this morning, and they could .
• certainly change the direction of the energy sector on Wednesday. .
• Now, on Tuesday, the VIX continue to move lower for the seventh day. .
• That, of course, is bullish for the overall stock market. .
• Things would change on Wednesday if the .
• VIX were to close above $18.55. From what we're seeing in the pre-market .
• this morning, we are certainly not expecting that to happen. .
• In today's presentation, we'll break it up into three parts. .
• We'll start off with a look at the US market followed by the Canadian market, .
• and then we'll close off looking at commodity prices. .
• Probably the most important chart that we're watching this week is the S&P 500. .
• It has moved up to our next price target .
• and hit that price target yesterday at 437.50, got as high as 437.59. .
• Now, just above that is the top of an open gap that could not be filled in October. .
• So as hard as they tried, we moved up two lines in October, could not fill that gap. .
• And so far in November, we have not been able to fill that gap. .
• So that gap is a major area of resistance. .
• The market could hit it and reverse, and .
• that could mark the top for this particular move. .
• If we are able to not only fill that gap but close above it, then the probability .
• of moving up to our next price target at 456.31 increases dramatically. .
• But that has not happened yet. .
• Now, Tuesday was a very mixed day for the .
• US market, where most of the major S&P sectors were actually lower on the day. .
• We did see continued strength in consumer .
• discretionary, technology and consumer staples. .
• What didn't work? .
• Well, materials and energy. .
• We'll find out that that's true on both sides of the border. .
• There's Consumer Discretionary moving up. .
• Yesterday, it almost hit our next price .
• target of 162.50, we got as high as 162.41 before backing away slightly. .
• There's the Technology Sector moving up. .
• Step One has been completed. .
• We have made a higher high. .
• Step two, yet to be determined and we're certainly not concerned about that on .
• Wednesday, which is did we make a higher low? .
• And of course, again, we're not going to deal with that on Wednesday. .
• We did hit our next price target. .
• So if you had an order to sell in at 75, it got filled yesterday. .
• Of course, I recommend putting orders in just below those price targets. .
• We did get as high as $175.29, so you got covered yesterday. .
• I did mention that we're going to keep a close eye on Apple to see if Apple would .
• break the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. .
• We did put a slightly higher high .
• yesterday, and so that's part one of the equation has been reached. .
• But of course, we still need to see what .
• low we make next time the market moves down. .
• Now here's an area of concern. .
• It's nice to see technology stocks lead the market higher, but it would be nicer .
• if the chip sector was going along for the ride. .
• As you can see, the pros have no interest .
• in taking control of the chip sector on Tuesday. .
• NVIDIA is still holding up well. .
• It has not made a higher high just yet and .
• we are expecting resistance at the 468.75 level to kick in once again. .
• Then what didn't work well, the energy .
• sector and we've been concerned about this sector for a while now. .
• If we go back to September, we put in a lower high. .
• Then in early October, we put in a lower low. .
• Then we came back in October, put in a slightly lower high. .
• Now, we're putting in a new lower low for the energy sector. .
• For the XLE ETF, we were trying to hold .
• support at 84.38, that broke yesterday, and so our next price target for this .
• sector is 81.25. Slumberger was the big loser yesterday in the energy sector. .
• Then we saw Chevron make a new low for this move. .
• Of course, Chevron is a Dow 30 stock. .
• Then looking at what didn't work, well, .
• the Russell 2000 and the Russell Microcap ETF both pulled back. .
• They both been down for the last couple of days. .
• We're not getting that broad support for a rally that we would want to see. .
• That puts us on a little bit of a defensive here, thinking that this may not .
• last very much longer, but there's no proof to that just yet. .
• Just a couple of signs: the stocks index, the chip sector is not participating and .
• mid-cap and micro-cap stocks are not participating. .
• So that's probably not a good sign going forward. .
• Now moving on to the Canadian market, here's a little bit of a problem. .
• What's working right now? .
• Well, the big cap stocks and the TSX60 .
• have been the best performing and small-cap micro-cap is not doing well. .
• We want those to participate. .
• We want a broad rally to take us into year end. .
• So far, we're not seeing that. .
• There's the TSX-60 pulling back yesterday. .
• There is the TSX itself pulling back. .
• Then when you look at mid-cap, small cap, and micro-cap stocks, they did not perform .
• very well yesterday, and that is a concern going forward. .
• What worked? .
• Well, similar to what worked in the US, it was infotech and Consumer Discretionary. .
• Consumer Staples was down. .
• Everything else was down on the day after those two sectors, and then materials and .
• energy stocks were the biggest losers of the day. .
• So there's Infotech making a new high. .
• This chart looks very similar to Shopify. .
• You'll see that in a second. .
• The big winner on the TSX Infotech sector on Tuesday was BlackBerry. .
• It's been on a buy signal for a couple of days now. .
• Hut8 was a big winner yesterday, up 3.51 %. .
• And then there's Shopify. .
• And Shopify looking very much like the Infotech index itself. .
• Consumer Discretionary was up yesterday, but it's consumer staples that have been .
• the big winner over the past week, and that sector was down just a quarter of .
• a % on the day, but it looks like it might be putting in a top up at these levels. .
• Then what didn't work? .
• Well, Materials was down yesterday. .
• I've been on a sell signal for a couple of weeks now. .
• Gold stocks rolled over. .
• They are back on a sell signal. .
• Once again, we put in a lower high. .
• We'll have to see if we put in a lower low. .
• Then looking at energy stocks, they .
• finally rolled over after being on a buy signal for a couple of days. .
• Certainly, we're not bullish about the energy sector over the past couple of .
• weeks with both crude oil and then natural gas, both back on cell signals. .
• I have a question now. .
• Will the FlyPaper channel once again hold this support? .
• Will investors be willing to buy the dip .
• or do we break down and finally give up the ghost for the energy sector in 2023? .
• Let's finish off looking at commodity .
• prices and there's crude oil breaking down yesterday. .
• We were trying to hold support at '81.25. .
• That didn't work. .
• Then the 78.13 should have been support. .
• Look at all that support from back in August. .
• That didn't work. .
• This is looking pretty bearish. .
• 75 and '71.88 are certainly our next two targets to the downside. .
• Then we've got natural gas on its second day of a cell signal. .
• Once again, putting in a lower high for natural gas. .
• 3.32 would be our next target to the downside. .
• We did find support there in September. .
• Looking at the metals, we still have .
• copper on a buy signal, certainly not helping the mining sector at the moment. .
• Gold and silver both rolled over yesterday. .
• They're both back on sell signals. .
• We've been concerned about both of those for a while now. .
• I think it's important to point out that the gold and silver market of our fathers .
• is not the gold and silver market of today. .
• Investors have many more options, including all of the cryptocurrencies, .
• which have been doing very well over the past few weeks. .
• If there has been global stress because of .
• what's happening in the Middle East, there are other options for investors to get in .
• and out fairly quickly besides the gold and silver market. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Have a great day. .
• Still a little concerned about the market .
• with the chip sector, mid-capital-cap, small-caps not participating. .
• But certainly, there's nothing to do about .
• that based on that information on Wednesday morning. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .