Hello, everyone. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from .
theuptrend.com, and welcome to Friday morning. .
In the pre-market this morning, stock .
index futures are flat, commodities are mixed with a crude all slightly higher .
while gold is down another $10 in the pre-market on Friday morning. .
Well, there's an old saying in the stock market, never sell on Fridays, and we do .
have some sell signals that you should probably take, but hopefully you'll be .
able to take them at a higher price this morning. .
Generally, Fridays are not bad days for the stock market. .
There are certainly usually good days coming into a long weekend. .
This is not a long weekend. .
It's a remembrance day tomorrow. .
What happened yesterday? .
Well, we saw Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new .
highs with Ethereum moving up nearly 7.50 % on the day. .
It was interesting this time around. .
The pros took control of Bitcoin before they took control of Ethereum. .
Ethereum is certainly trying to make up .
for lost ground and heading right back up to the highs from back earlier this year. .
Looking at the VIX, the VIX moved up yesterday after making a new low. .
There's a reversal in the VIX. .
It could be the start of something. .
We'll just have to wait and see. .
We did see bond sell off yesterday that put upward pressure on bond yields and .
that caused the stock market to hit resistance and pull back. .
Now, we've been talking about the SPY all .
week, and unfortunately, yesterday was a bearish day for the SPY. .
It put in a bearish reversal day .
at resistance and filled an open gap, which is no longer open. .
Remember, we were looking to see if the SPY could start closing above .
437.50, if it could fill the gap and continue to move higher. .
The top of the gap was at 438.43. We opened at 438. .
43 yesterday, .
traded a couple of pennies higher and then reversed and headed lower. .
We did put in a higher high, which is bullish. .
At the same time, we closed below the .
previous day's low, which is short term bearish. .
We'll have to see which way we go next. .
Yesterday was a big bar day, and so we're .
going to be looking to see which way we close. .
If we close above yesterday's high, that would certainly be bullish. .
If we close below yesterday's low, that would certainly be bearish. .
There's a pretty good chance we may see an inside day on Friday for the SPY. .
Now, the Nasdaq did something similar. .
It had a bearish reversal day as well. .
It did close below the previous days low. .
We were trying to hit 375, got as high as .
374.80. Now, as I've mentioned many times, you don't want to have your order in right .
at 375, you want to put in it a little less. .
When you look at these profit target lines, what you need to be thinking about .
is that there's a wall of sell orders up there. .
And people are smart enough to know that there's a wall of sell orders up there and .
they want to get their order ahead of other people's orders. .
So they're going to put them in a little less than 3:75. .
So that's how you build up a wall of .
resistance and that's what happened yesterday. .
Now there's no reason that we can't .
continue to move higher if the market wants to. .
The market has been higher than that level .
before, but we're not seeing that on Friday morning, that's for sure. .
So what me worry? .
Bear for Russell Day in the stock market. .
Yeah, well you know what? .
The chips have not participated in this .
rally, and they're getting pretty close to a sell signal. .
We saw mid-cap and small-cap, micro-cap stocks all sell off yesterday. .
So we've got the Russell 2000, we've got .
the Russell micro-caps both back on sell signals as of Thursday's close. .
And we call that the risk-off trade. .
That is not a good sign going forward. .
We were hoping that with the up move in .
the stock market that people would reach down and deepen their pockets and start .
buying those mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. .
That would give us a sign that the risk on trade was back on and they were really .
wanting the market to continue to move higher. .
But that's not the case at the moment and .
that probably has a lot to do with the shift in bond yields. .
Now looking at the Canadian market, we've .
got an early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
We had a bearish reversal day a couple of .
days ago and have not been able to retest that high. .
We are trying to get to $30.47 just above that. .
There's an open gap and right now we're not looking, it doesn't look like we're .
going to be dealing with any of that on Friday. .
We'll be looking at Wednesday's low and to .
see if the Canadian market can hold Wednesday's low. .
If not, we need to close on Friday below .
$29.45, certainly not expecting that to happen. .
Of course, if it doesn't happen on Friday, .
that lower channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
Now, what worked? .
Well, the top of the performance list yesterday was all Canadian sectors. .
Energy was the biggest winner. .
Of course, you can see there's no change in trend there. .
No change in trend for materials, no change in trend for financials. .
Still on a buy signal, making a new high yesterday. .
Then we had utilities move up. .
We also had Canadian banks move up. .
Didn't make a new high. .
We've got financials, utilities and banks still on buy signals. .
No change in trend there. .
Let's finish off with a quick look at the energy sector. .
We'll start off with crude oil, which had an inside day on Thursday. .
Natural gas continued to move lower. Where did it land? .
We'll write on a support at 3.32, closed at 3.33 yesterday. .
If we break this, 3.13 and 2.93 come into play. .
Then looking at the Canadian energy .
sector, we looked at this chart a couple of seconds ago. .
We're still on a sell signal here, but you .
can see the market is trying to hold $16 on this particular ETF. .
It'll be quite a tell if we start breaking through that $16 level. .
Of course, if the energy sector is falling, you can make money by buying the .
Bear, Horizon Beta Pro ETF, which is on a buy signal right now. .
Looking at individual stocks, Baytech on a sell signal, no change there. .
Crescent Point, for some reason the market .
really does not like Crescent Point at the moment. .
They like Athabasca Oil Sands a lot better. .
It is still on a sell signal, but you can see compared to the other energy stocks, .
including Whitecap, the Athabasca is certainly standing out at the moment. .
It is still moving down. .
There's no change in trend here. .
It was an inside day on Thursday, and then .
Whitecap, which made a new closing low on Thursday, not looking very healthy at the .
moment, a series of lower highs and lower lows. .
Now, as we know, every sector gets its chance and there's a time to own energy .
stocks and a time not to own energy stocks. .
Right now is not the time to own energy stocks. .
One last chart this morning out of those .
Big Cap seven technology stocks we've been following. .
We've noted Tesla did not really participate in the rally so far and .
yesterday it proved it by generating a sell signal. .
So once again, we've gone from being long Tesla to being short Tesla. .
Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation. .
That's all from me for this week. .
Have a great day, have a great weekend, and hopefully you'll get some time to .
remember those who came before us and served. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday. .