• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are slightly below fair value. .
• Commodities are slightly above fair value. .
• So far, it looks like we're going to have a quiet open on Monday morning. .
• No major economic numbers coming out .
• today, so expect it to be a fairly quiet day. .
• Now, last time we talked, we were coming off a bearish reversal Thursday. .
• And of course, when we look at a bearish .
• reversal day, it can often mark the top for a market. .
• And if we go back looking at the SPY, you .
• can see we had a bearish reversal day there that marked the top, then another .
• one there that marked the top, and another one there that marked the top. .
• But this time around it may not have worked. .
• Remember, these are one day events. .
• They come up, they need to be acknowledged and watched. .
• But we need to see fall through on a bearish reversal day. .
• We need to see fall through to the downside. .
• On a bullish reversal day, we need to see the follow through to the upside. .
• We're looking to see if we're going to get that follow through. .
• You can see the big bar that we had on .
• Thursday and it engulfed the previous day's bar. .
• We were looking for a breakout of .
• Thursday's range to tell us which way the market wanted to go next. .
• Oddly enough on Friday, we continue to push higher, putting in a higher high. .
• On Thursday, I was also concerned about .
• the fact that the chips were not participating in last week's rally. .
• Well, on Friday, what happened? .
• Well, chips actually led the market higher, so that was helpful. .
• And so pushing the Nasdaq up again, we're .
• making higher highs here, which are a positive sign for the market. .
• At the same time, we are coming up to resistance. .
• And you can see the high from late August there, up there at 380. .
• 83, that's a potential target within the grasp on Monday. .
• And then above that, you can see that 38 .
• 2.81 would be our next target above that level if we can take out the August high. .
• Now, the Nasdaq-100 is market cap weighted. .
• So Apple and Microsoft make up over 20 % of the value of the Nasdaq-100. .
• And then if you go down the list, most of .
• the ones are the ones we look at regularly. .
• But you see, Broadcom is in there, and .
• that's a stock we don't take a look at very often. .
• But there's what Broadcom is looking like at the moment. .
• Now, at the other end of the .
• scale, Lucid is the least important stock in the Nasdaq-100. .
• Its value is or its weighting in the Nasdaq-100 is less than 1%. .
• So not giving the Lucid group a lot of .
• ability to move the Nasdaq-100 if it doubled, tripled or whatever, nobody would .
• really notice except Lucid shareholders, of course. .
• If we look at the Nasdaq-100 and assume that the majority of the gains are made by .
• the Magnificent Seven, if we take that away, you can see that if we look at an .
• equal weighted version of the Nasdaq-100 that hasn't really moved that much over .
• the last week and certainly has not taken out the October high. .
• That's if you give every stock in the Nasdaq-100 equal weighting. .
• Now, the next 100 stocks or the Nasdaq, .
• let's say 200, is known as the Nasdaq Next Gen ETF. .
• You can see that it really isn't participating in this week's rally at all. .
• So once again, it is those big cap tech stocks that everybody's loved in 2023. .
• That pattern has not changed. .
• You can also see that in the S&P 500. .
• If we look at the SPY compared to the equal weighted version of the SPY, the .
• rest of the S&P 500 isn't really participating at the moment. .
• And then, of course, we've also pointed .
• out the fact that the Russell 2000, the microcap stocks are not participating. .
• And we've also pointed out that in Canada, the small cap and microcap stocks, .
• again, are not participating in this recent rally. .
• Now, as I've mentioned before, we're in a .
• risk-off situation at the moment, and that makes it very, very hard .
• to make money outside of those big cap tech stocks that everybody loves. .
• So you can do the best job at stock .
• picking at the moment and pick out the best stocks in different sectors. .
• If the market's not interested, they're .
• not interested and that's just the way it is at the moment. .
• Now, the VIX is still supportive for higher stock prices. .
• The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal. .
• That won't change unless the VIX closes .
• above $19.47 this coming Friday on a shorter term basis. .
• If you're trading the market on Monday, we're going to remain short term bullish .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $17.05 on Monday. .
• And of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• Now we've talked about the seasonality of the VIX. .
• We're in the middle of November right now, .
• expecting the VIX to continue to move lower into Christmas. .
• And that would be supportive of a year end rally in the stock market. .
• If we move on to the Canadian market for .
• the week, the TSX actually lost money on the week. .
• What worked? .
• Well, Infotech worked just like in the US, but the rest of the market, not so much. .
• Financial services ended the week up a quarter of a %. .
• Then what didn't work? Gold stocks rolled over. .
• They're back on a weekly sell signal. .
• Then we've got materials already on a weekly sell signal. .
• No change in trend for marijuana stocks and no change in trend for base metals. .
• Those were all the biggest losers on the TSX for the week. .
• Energy stocks did come down but did not .
• generate a sell signal, so we've got a little bit more to go. .
• If we see energy stocks continue to move .
• lower this week, we could end the week on a weekly sell signal. .
• Let's finish off with the five charts the world's watching. .
• And we've got the US dollar index in the channel. .
• Once again, it actually ended the week higher. .
• The euro did something similar, ended the week slightly lower. .
• So no change in trend for the major currencies this week. .
• No change in trend for interest rates either. .
• Bond yields were actually up on the week. .
• So both currencies and bond yields are .
• trading in the channel on the weekly charts. .
• Then looking at the price of crude oil, .
• we're on our second week of a weekly sell signal right now. .
• We held $75 at the close. .
• If that breaks, then $68. .
• 75, and then $62. .
• 50 would be our next targets to the downside for the price of crude oil. .
• And then last up, we're looking at the .
• price of gold, which traded down into the channel looking for a close below $1918. .
• 50 this coming Friday to give us a weekly sell signal for gold. .
• And as we expected, the $2,000 level was .
• going to act as both mathematical and psychological resistance. .
• And so far, that $2,000 level has held us in check. .
• Yes, we traded above it, but we did not break away from it on a weekly basis. .
• That's a bear sign for the price of gold. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Higher highs last week are bullish. .
• Chip stocks moving up but sharply on Friday, that's bullish. .
• It is a risk off market, though, so it's very hard to make money in this market as .
• most of the money is focused on a very small percentage of the stocks. .
• Falling commodity prices are good for the .
• US market, but not so helpful for the Canadian market, which is unfortunate. .
• Okay, folks, it looks like we're going to get a fairly quiet open on Monday morning, .
• and we may see Monday turn out to be an inside day or a day of indecision. .
• Enjoy the rest of your Monday, and the .
• next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .