• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• Well, yesterday was a fairly quiet day. .
• It was an inside day for a lot of technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100. .
• This morning is fairly quiet as well. .
• We are waiting for CPI numbers that are coming out at 8:30 this morning and that .
• could add some volatility in the premarket. .
• We also have a whole bunch of Fed speakers this week. .
• I think there's 20 of them out there. .
• They could also add some intraday volatility to the market depending on what .
• they say and how people take to what they say. .
• The VIX had an inside day on Monday. .
• We're looking for a close on Tuesday above .
• $16.69 to give us a buy signal for the VIX. .
• That, of course, would be negative for stocks, Apple, Amazon, Meta. .
• They all had inside days on Monday. .
• Those are days of indecision, pause days. .
• We're looking for a breakout of the .
• previous day's range to tell us which way the market wants to go next. .
• There's the Nasdaq-100 with an inside day .
• on Monday, also an inside day for chip stocks in the semiconductor sector. .
• Not so much for the DOW. .
• It edged slightly higher. .
• The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on the .
• day, and then the TSX closed up on the day. .
• We're still dealing with the bearish .
• reversal signal from a couple of weeks ago and looking for a move up to 30. .
• 47, and that would take us up to the .
• bottom of that open gap if we can take out the high from a couple of weeks ago. .
• Looking at the S&P sectors, five of the 11 were up on the day, but to notice that .
• energy stocks were up less than 1 % while utilities were down over 1 %. .
• So a little more weakness than strength on Monday. .
• If we go through the Fly Paper channel .
• charts for the different sectors, you'll notice that only a couple are actually .
• holding the market up at the moment, and that is certainly technology. .
• Typically, when a market is trading above the Fly Paper channel, we consider it in a .
• bull market, and investors typically like to buy the dips. .
• When we're in the channel, it's neutral. .
• We call the FlyPaper channel because symbols get stuck to it. .
• You'll notice that when we saw a weakness in September and October, the technology .
• sector was still stuck to the bottom of the FlyPaper channel. .
• Even though we were seeing weakness, we couldn't break away from it. .
• And then eventually, we turned around and started to move back up. .
• Communication services, pretty similar. .
• These are where all the technology stocks .
• and social media stocks that everybody loves to follow. .
• This is where those stocks are located. .
• Then when we start walking through the rest of the sectors, you'll notice that .
• most of them are either stuck in the FlyPaper channel or are below it. .
• And that's not a good sign. .
• We need that to change if we're going to .
• take the rest of the market up with us into year end. .
• But so far, financials are stuck. .
• We've got consumer discretionary stuck, .
• consumer staples stuck, not even able to get into the channel at the moment. .
• Then we've got industrials, healthcare, looking at the material sector, not .
• looking very pretty, not looking pretty for real estate. .
• Then looking at just utilities, for example, this is how it works. .
• Back in October, this is how the utilities looked. .
• At that time, I would have asked you to .
• look up to the Fly Paper channel looking for a move up to the $62 to $65 area. .
• Notice that's pointing down at the time. .
• You can just take your mouse and just move it across, follow the channel down. .
• A month later, here's what happened. .
• We moved up into the Fly Paper channel, .
• stopped, and are starting to pull back down. .
• Fly Paper channel is still holding us in check for the utility sector. .
• Then looking at the energy sector, which has held the market up in 2023, has .
• started to break down below the Fly Paper channel. .
• That's not a good sign for the energy sector. .
• It could be a good sign for the inflation picture and for consumers in .
• general if crude oil continues to move lower from here. .
• Looking at the Canadian market, and we did .
• have energy and technology up at the top yesterday. .
• What didn't work? Well, some of the interest sensitive areas .
• such as real estate and utilities didn't pan out very well on Monday. .
• Looking at consumer staples, they've been the big winner over the past few weeks. .
• And then the infotech, of course, looks very similar to how it looks in the US. .
• Energy stocks are holding the recent lows, unlike the US market. .
• And let's hope they continue to hold those lows at the 250 level. .
• What's not working? .
• Well, materials are not working. .
• And then anything to do with mining? .
• There's the Global Mining Index, there's the Global Gold Index. .
• Then looking at financials, they're just .
• getting into the Fly Paper channel right now, so are the industrials. .
• We've got consumer discretionary up at the top of the Fly Paper channel still unable .
• to break out above the highs from a couple of months ago. .
• Then we've got healthcare, which traded into the channel and pulled back. .
• We've got marijuana stocks that traded up to the channel and pulled back. .
• Then looking at real estate, again, .
• hitting the flypaper channel and starting to pull back. .
• Telecom services have traded up into the .
• FlyPaper channel and are holding the highs from back in September. .
• Those are holding them in check at the moment. .
• It's not a pretty picture. .
• Even though we had a big rally, it has not been able to cause most of the sectors to .
• be able to break out above the FlyPaper channel to tell us that .
• things are clearing up and the market is becoming more bullish. .
• It is still a handful of stocks that are leading this market higher. .
• That doesn't mean you can't trade up into .
• the FlyPaper channel and trade it back down. .
• But if people are hoping for a year-end .
• rally that's broadly based, so far, that has not started at all. .
• Okay, folks, everybody's waiting for those CPI numbers coming at 8:30. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .