• Good morning, everyone. .
• Welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from T heUpTrend.com In the premarket this .
• morning, stock index futures and commodities are above fair value. .
• So far, we're looking for some buying at the open on Friday morning. .
• We do have a US housing numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. .
• I don't think they'll have much effect on .
• the market, but we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Looking at the VIX, the VIX made a new low .
• yesterday before closing slightly higher on the day. .
• That would be a bullish reversal day. .
• We're looking for a close on Friday above 15.74, not expecting that to happen. .
• There's the VIX for the Nasdaq closing slightly lower yesterday, .
• and the VIX for the Russell, certainly not trending to the downside still on a sell .
• signal that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• We know that the Russell has been trailing .
• small mid-cap, micro-cap stocks have all been trailing. .
• Not a lot of excitement in the Russell so far. .
• Compare that to the Nasdaq. .
• And of course, if we take those big cap, .
• magnificent seven stocks out of the Nasdaq, it looks more like this. .
• And then, of course, if we leave the big cap stocks and look at the smaller cap .
• Nasdaq stocks, you can see it looks like this. .
• And we talked about the Nasdaq Next .
• Generation stocks hitting, running up to 25 and reversing yesterday. .
• And it pulled back again on Thursday. .
• So a potential for a short term top, we'll just have to wait and see. .
• We're not seeing that type of action in the premarket this morning. .
• I'm looking at the I-share for the TSX 60, .
• just up two cents yesterday, and it was a real mixed picture. .
• But the Canadian market is acting very .
• similar to the US market right now, where we're being led higher by big cap stocks, .
• mid-cap, small caps and micro caps are trailing at the moment and it would be .
• nice to see those micro cap stocks start to pick up. .
• Now, gold moved up yesterday. .
• It's back on a daily buy signal, joining silver already on a daily buy signal. .
• Best performing stocks on the TSX on Thursday, Wheaton followed by Kinros. .
• What didn't work? Well, energy continued to move lower. .
• We've got crude oil up in the premarket this morning. .
• It was down $3.70 yesterday. .
• It's up a dollar in the premarket. .
• We also are trying to hold 71.88. If that breaks, then 68. .
• 75 would be our next target. .
• Not expecting to head down to those levels on Friday. .
• Natural gas made a new low for this move. .
• We're looking for support at 3.13 and hopefully that will hold. .
• Suncor is back on a sell signal and this is a really bearish chart. .
• We had a high, lower high, lower high, and now we've put in another lower high. .
• That's extremely bearish. .
• It may turn out that Suncor will start to .
• look more like Cenovus or a Tourmaline over the next couple of weeks. .
• Then looking at what's working this morning, well, the GAP is in the news this .
• morning and it's popping higher in the premarket. .
• So if you had an order in 15.63, you don't have to worry about it. .
• It'll get filled at the opening price. .
• And then we may take a run up to 17.19. .
• Let's finish off this morning's presentation with a little trade school. .
• And let's talk about Walmart because if you bought here, this looks like a losing .
• trade, but that's not the way it's supposed to work. .
• If we go back in time to October 13th, .
• that's when Walmart generated the latest buy signal. .
• And of course, at that time, we're coming off the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• We had some panic selling. .
• We had a Pressure Zone form. .
• This is the time and place you look for a low risk buying opportunity. .
• Low risk does not mean guaranteed. .
• Nothing's guaranteed. .
• Every time that we're down the bottom of the panic zones and we get a Pressure .
• Zone, you can look for a low risk buying opportunity and we're going to run it up .
• until we see an early warning signal at the top of the screen. .
• Now back on October 13th, our price target chart looked like this. .
• So once you got an order filled, you've .
• got confirmation that those shares are in your account. .
• Let's say for the sake of argument, you bought 100 shares of Walmart. .
• I would want to go back into the account .
• right away and place an order to sell 50 % of those shares at 162.50, .
• then put another order in to sell 50 % of the remainder, so 25 shares at 165.63. Now .
• you don't have to put the orders in at these exact numbers. .
• You can put it in a little lower. .
• And so 165. .
• 49 or 169.55, something like that would probably be a good order to put in. .
• Remember, these price targets are also potential areas of resistance. .
• Then next, I would put an order in to sell half of the remainder. .
• If you've got 25 shares left at that .
• point, remember, none of these orders have been filled. .
• You're just planning ahead. .
• We're going to sell 12 shares at 168. .
• 75 or 168. .
• 69 would be good. .
• Then up here at the top, we've got 13 shares left. .
• We want to sell half at 171.88. We've got 13 shares left. .
• We're going to sell six at 171.88. .
• We never want to completely liquidate a position. .
• You don't know how far a stock can run. .
• If it can continue to run higher, you want to take advantage of that. .
• But what happened? Well, the stock fell out of the sky, and .
• we are used to stocks falling faster than they rise. .
• That has just always been the case. .
• We need to sell on the first close below the lower channel line, and that is .
• certainly the first close below the lower channel line since October. .
• You can see that we hit our first target .
• at 162.50, we hit the second target at 165.63. We hit the third target at .
• 168.75, but we did not get up to the fourth target. .
• What have you got left? .
• You've got 13 % of your original position. .
• You've got 13 shares left in your account .
• and you need to take the loss on those 13 shares. .
• For those 13 shares, it will be a losing trade. .
• Now, if you've ever heard me use the term, .
• we were waiting to get kicked out of the trade. .
• Well, getting kicked out of the trade is .
• the first close below the lower channel line. .
• And that certainly happened yesterday. .
• So if you're a long Walmart, you need to .
• liquidate that position this morning at the open. .
• And luckily, Walmart is actually trading higher. .
• I'm back in the premarket this morning. .
• Let's finish off with a customer question. .
• If you could only trade five ETS versus five stocks, what would they be? .
• Well, if you go into the stocks menu, you'll first of all see my five stocks, .
• which I trade as a basket either long or short. .
• And then if you go down, you'll see the Canadian 2X pairs and the US 3X pairs. .
• I always recommend that people start trading pairs. .
• So you're either long the bull or long the bear. .
• Or the opposite of that is you can be .
• short the bull or short the bear, depending on which way the market's going. .
• But I would certainly .
• out of all the ETFs, I would want to be trading those for the most part. .
• You don't have to worry about which way the market's going, and you don't have to .
• worry about anything like what happened to Walmart yesterday because they are ETFs. .
• The risk is spread over a whole bunch of stocks. .
• If you look at the US ETF volume leaders .
• right now, and if you include the leveraged ETFs, you'll see that the the .
• most actively traded ETFs are actually the triples for the Nasdaq, and then you've .
• got triples for semiconductors and triples for the biotech sector. .
• Volume wise, they're very actively traded. .
• Of course, I always talk about the fact .
• that the SPY and the triple Qs are the big monsters because the SPY is currently .
• trading at $450 versus there's a $3, there's an $8 ETF of 40, 16, 26. .
• This is the big monster in the room. .
• But they're all very actively traded. .
• If I had limited resources and I was .
• looking to what exactly should I be doing, I would be trading pairs of the major .
• leveraged ETFs, the 3X in the US and the 2X in Canada. .
• The fact that they are 2X and 3X doesn't make them unstable. .
• They pretty well have the same volatility .
• as the major technology stocks that we'd love to follow. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Have a great day. Have a great weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning. .