• Good morning, everyone. .
• And welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly flat. .
• Commodities are mixed with crude or .
• higher, while gold is down $10 in the premarket on Monday morning. .
• While Microsoft's in the news this .
• morning, and it's just back to where it was on Friday. .
• So it is up nicely. .
• It's putting a little bit into Nasdaq .
• stocks, but we're really just recovering on Friday. .
• Microsoft was down $6.32. This morning, .
• it's up $6.25. So again, just back to where we were on Friday. .
• Nvidia is the stock to watch, of course, this week. .
• It comes out with earnings on Tuesday .
• afternoon, and that may set the tone for the market for the rest of the week. .
• Now, it is a holiday shortened week with US markets closed on Thursday for .
• Thanksgiving and closed a half day on Friday. .
• Now, traditionally, things are fairly .
• bullish coming into a long weekend, and it's going to be fairly quiet. .
• A lot of people are going to be taking Wednesday off. .
• A lot of people are actually going to be taking the whole week off. .
• I wouldn't be surprised if Monday and .
• Tuesday were flat to lower, while Wednesday would be a positive day. .
• Thursday, US markets are closed. .
• Friday, should be a flat to positive day .
• for the market and we should end the week positively, I hope. .
• With the US markets closed on Thursday and .
• half day on Friday, we're actually going to be closed both days. .
• Yes, the Canadian markets will be open, but they'll be very thinly traded. .
• A lot of the professionals also take the days off because without guidance from U. .
• S. Futures, including U. .
• S. Commodity futures, there isn't a lot of .
• reasons to take chances on Thursday or Friday. .
• So with us closed on Thursday and Friday, .
• the weekend update will be done by 3:00 PM Saturday afternoon. .
• Now, we are looking at some weekly charts today. .
• It is the first day of the week. .
• The VIX was down last week. .
• And so we're going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the .
• VIX does not close above $19.12 this coming Friday. .
• And if you're watching the markets on the daily charts, we're short term bullish. .
• And we will stay short term bullish on the .
• market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.47 on Monday. .
• And of course, if that doesn't happen, .
• that upper chan line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• Now we are coming into the end of November, and you can see that the VIX .
• historically has moved up into the end of November first of December. .
• So we wouldn't be surprised to see a little downward pressure next week. .
• And of course, we have a whole bunch of gaps that could act as potential targets .
• on the way back down and also potential areas of support. .
• Remember, on the way up, their resistance .
• on the way down, they are potential areas of support. .
• Then we expect the VIX to move down. .
• Now, we don't actually expect the VIX to .
• keep moving down at the same rate it's been moving. .
• We wouldn't be surprised if it came back .
• down to the previous lows and just traded sideways for a while. .
• As long as we stay below the FlyPaper channel, I'm certainly willing to remain .
• not only short term bullish, but long term bullish on the market. .
• Now last week, we talked about the fact that, yes, we are making higher highs. .
• Yes, the chips were going up, but .
• we were having trouble getting the rest of the market to go along. .
• We're also talking about the fact that while fall in commodity prices are helpful .
• to the US market, they can actually hurt the Canadian market. .
• When we talk about the chip sector, of course, we're talking about NVIDIA. .
• Looking at the weekly chart here, you can .
• see $500 is currently acting as resistance. .
• If we can break through that, then 562.50 is our next target on the weekly charts. .
• We're talking about weekly moves here, not daily moves. .
• Now, 500 has been acting as resistance. .
• We talk about if you see a price target, a .
• profit target of $500, you might want to put your order in a little below that, and .
• you can see that that's what the market did. .
• They got as high as 499. .
• 60, and somebody with a sell order in at that level turned the market around, and .
• that's as high as we could get for this particular week. .
• Now, when we look at a daily chart, the actual next target on the daily chart is .
• 531.25 before we get to 562.50. If we're looking down on Monday, a close below 4 .
• 67.76, would give us a new sell signal for NVIDIA. .
• We're certainly not expecting that to happen on Monday. .
• It could certainly happen on Wednesday, .
• depending on what happens on Tuesday afternoon. .
• Now looking at the broader market, even though we were talking about the risk .
• off trade not working up to last week, well, guess what? .
• After I posted that, the Russell 2000 moved up over 5% on the week. .
• The microcap sector was up over 6%. .
• In Canada, it was a bit less. .
• We've got small caps up just under 2%, still on a weekly sell signal. .
• And the microcap stocks in the venture exchange were up nearly 4%. .
• It's hard to notice. .
• We're still trading below the lower channel line. .
• But you can see that investors did come back into the market and did choose a .
• broader range of stocks last week than they had previously done. .
• That's a bullish sign for the market going forward. .
• Now, speaking of the Canadian market, the TSX was up nicely. .
• We're back on a weekly buy signal. .
• Remember, we put in a lower-low recently, so that is still in check. .
• What we need to do now is put in a higher .
• high to tell us that the pattern is starting to change. .
• So far, we don't have any evidence of that. .
• If you look up, you can see that the .
• 20,625 level has been resistance for a year now, and it would be a major event if .
• we were able to move up and break out above that resistance. .
• Not only would it change the pattern? .
• But it would certainly tell us to look up to lines all the way up to 21,875. .
• That could be our next trading range if we can break through resistance. .
• Now what worked? Well, base metals were the big winners. .
• They were up 4.47 % on the week, having an .
• inside week, so no change in trend for base metals, unlike utilities and .
• financials that both ended the week on a buy signal. .
• Now we're watching the financials closely. .
• We're still dealing with the same pattern of lower highs and lower lows. .
• That would change, of course, if we could .
• take out the summer high for the financial sector. .
• And so far, the financials are being let higher by the insurance companies. .
• What didn't work? .
• Well, energy stocks actually closed slightly higher on the week. .
• We closed up just four cents on the week for the iShare's Energy ETF. .
• So we're still on a weekly buy signal here. .
• We've traded below the lower channel line .
• for the last two weeks, but we have not closed below it. .
• Now looking at Wall Street, and of course, .
• we're looking for the Nasdaq to lead us higher. .
• The Nasdaq ended the week up over 2%, .
• and we're heading towards 406.25 with a possible stop at 400, .
• which, of course, we consider psychological resistance. .
• Now looking at the equal weighted Nasdaq, it actually outperformed the Nasdaq 100. .
• So that's a good sign. .
• We were up just under 3%. .
• And then looking at those... .
• Then looking at the next 100 stocks, the .
• next Gen stocks, they were up over 3.5% on the week. .
• So it's a nice thing to see. .
• We're not there for a weekly buy signal .
• just yet, but we're certainly heading in the right direction. .
• Then looking at semiconductors, they were up nearly 7% on the week. .
• So we're back on a weekly buy signal for semiconductors. .
• That's a good sign for the market. .
• And then what worked this week? .
• Well, regional banks were up just under 10% on the week. .
• Then we had BioTech stocks up nicely, .
• still on a weekly sell signal, no change there. .
• Unlike the banking sector, which .
• was up over 8% on the week, that's a huge move for US banks. .
• And we're back on a weekly buy signal heading towards those summer highs. .
• What also worked were the silver stocks. .
• They were up nearly eight % on the week. .
• Not enough to give us a buy signal, but certainly a big move. .
• We may see a little pullback in the precious metal sectors on Monday with gold .
• and silver, both trading lower in the premarket. .
• What didn't work in the US? .
• Well, it was oil and gas equipment was .
• actually the only major sector that closed lower on the week. .
• Let's finish off with those five charts. .
• The US dollar index was down on the week. .
• That is supportive for higher stock prices in the North American markets. .
• Then we had bonds trading higher on the week and bond yields coming down. .
• Again, that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• The price of gold was up $47 on the week. .
• We're still on a weekly buy signal here, so no change in trend. .
• We're down $10 $11 in the premarket on Monday morning. .
• I think this week might turn out to be an inside week for the price of gold. .
• Then looking at crude oil, crude oil was .
• down a $1.11 on the week making a new low for this move. .
• It's actually up more than that in the premarket on Monday morning. .
• With crude oil prices falling, that, of .
• course, is helpful for inflation, take some pressure off the Fed. .
• Some people also look at it as a sign that the recession might be starting. .
• Well, crude oil has trended lower, and .
• we've been lower than where we are right now. .
• I don't think there's any conclusive .
• things you can take away from the falling crude oil prices for the last few weeks. .
• But at the same time, if we look at what's .
• happening in the travel industry, this is supposed to be a huge week for US travel, .
• biggest week in probably four or five years. .
• There's going to be a lot of interest in anything travel related. .
• It could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation. .
• We're getting all this positive news about how many people are going to be traveling, .
• how many people are going to be taking planes, staying in hotels. .
• All of that is good news. .
• But just remember, it's usually buy the rumor, sell the news. .
• And so what's going up this week may go down next week. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Thank you very much for your time and attention. .
• And the next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .