• good morning everyone and welcome to Monday Morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheU .
• pTrend.Com in the pre market this morning things are fairly quiet. .
• We don't have any economic numbers coming out in the pre market this morning. .
• We do have home sales coming out later this morning but so far stock index .
• futures are slightly below fair value while commodities are mixed. .
• Crude oil is trading slightly lower while .
• gold is up another $10 in the pre market market on Monday morning. .
• Well so far for the month of November things have been very bullish. .
• We've got the S&P 500, SPY ETF up 8.87%, the triple Q's for the Nasdaq 100 are up a .
• tick over 11% and the Ishares for the TSX 60 are up 6.19% for the month of November. .
• So far the biggest winners in November have been US Homebuilders in the US up .
• over 15% and US Regional Banks up just under 12% for the month. .
• Of course there's no change in trend there for the regional banks. .
• Looking at the VIX, the weekly VIX chart was down another nearly 10% on the week. .
• And so we're going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the .
• VIX does not close above $18.58 this coming Friday. .
• Now if you're watching the market on Monday, we're going to remain short term .
• bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.56 on Monday. .
• And of course if that doesn't happen on .
• Monday that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• Looking at the seasonality chart of the VIX for the last week of November, the VIX .
• actually historically has moved up, which means there's been a little downward .
• pressure on the stock market for the next couple of days. .
• Of course we're coming into month end and month end typically has a bullish bias as .
• the market prepares for automatic money to hit the market over the month end period. .
• Now for some people they're looking at the .
• activity we're seeing in November as the Year End Rally. .
• Well we are looking for it to continue. .
• And for it to continue we've got a little checklist. .
• We were looking for the market to make .
• higher highs, we were looking for the chips to move higher. .
• We are also looking for the risk off market to come back. .
• That means those small and micro cap .
• stocks and we were looking for falling commodity prices which are bullish for the .
• US market, but not necessarily bullish for the Canadian market as so much of our .
• market is tied up in commodity related stocks. .
• So starting off looking at those higher .
• highs, we have not seen a higher high for Alphabet so far. .
• We have for Amazon and Apple for Meta. .
• For Microsoft. .
• Microsoft's been on quite a tear since the start of October. .
• Nvidia actually ended Friday on a sell signal. .
• We closed just below the lower channel line. .
• So we'll have to see if that continues. .
• But Nvidia did put in a higher high and then shopify another stock that's put in a .
• higher high, whether you're looking at it in New York or Toronto. .
• And then last up, Tesla. .
• Tesla has not put in a higher high. .
• It got up, filled the open gap, and so far that level has been holding us in check. .
• Looking for a close on Monday below 226.40 to give us a new sell signal for Tesla. .
• Now of course, the market has continued to be led higher by the tech sector. .
• And looking at the XLK, we made a higher .
• high on Wednesday before pulling back and closing down. .
• There the low of the day on Wednesday and then a small lower close on Friday. .
• So nothing to get overly worried about so far. .
• Now the chip sector has moved up and it .
• has started to trade above the October highs, but it's still stuck at resistance .
• at $200 here and it would be nice to see the chip sector start to break out. .
• Of course, with Nvidia pulling back over .
• the last couple of days, that hasn't helped. .
• If we do break out above the recent high, .
• then there is an open gap up here under the 212. .
• 50 level that could act as a target and an area of resistance. .
• But if we can continue higher from here, .
• that certainly would be supportive for a year end rally. .
• Now when we talk about the risk off trade, .
• that's the time and place where investors just don't want to invest in those small .
• micro cap stocks that generally don't make any money. .
• But we are seeing the Next G en Nasdaq 100 move up. .
• It is still stuck at $25, closed at $24.98 on Friday. .
• So if we can start breaking out above 25, .
• that would be supportive for a year end rally. .
• If we look at the Ishares for the Russell 2000, we hit 181. .
• 25 and have not gone back to retest. .
• That level would certainly be very positive to break out above the 181. .
• 25 level. .
• And then looking at the Ishares for the micro cap sector, we're trading above the .
• $100 level, which is bullish, and looking to move up to 103.13 as our next target. .
• And then looking at the TSX Small Cap index, we're still on a buy signal here .
• and we're still on a buy signal for the Venture Exchange. .
• Both of those are very supportive for a year end rally. .
• Let's finish off looking at commodity prices and no joy for crude oil. .
• It had an inside day on Friday, it's down in the pre market this morning. .
• No joy for natural gas making a new low on Friday. .
• And then looking at Canadian energy stocks .
• closing at the lower channel line on Friday, whereas US energy stocks closed up .
• just below the upper channel line on Friday. .
• So little divergence there between Canadian and US energy stocks. .
• And then looking at the mining sector. .
• We've got Gold had an inside day on Friday. .
• Looks like it's going to trade up another $10. .
• It closed up $10 on Friday. .
• We may move up another $10 today. .
• Silver made a new high for this move on .
• Friday and it is trading higher in the pre market. .
• So we've got the GDX and the XGD both on buy signals. .
• And then we've got Silver miners making a new closing high on Friday for this move, .
• running up to the highs that we saw in September. .
• And hopefully we can take a run at those August highs in the not so distant future. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far it looks like we're going to have a .
• weak opening on Monday, but nothing that's going to disturb anything. .
• Remember, it isn't a down day. .
• We're not that concerned if the market closes lower. .
• We are concerned if the market closes below the previous day's low. .
• That's when things start to change. .
• Please enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .