• Hello, everyone, and welcome to Monday Morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. In the pre market this .
• morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. .
• So so far it looks like the market wants .
• to do a little selling at the open on Monday morning. .
• And that's not surprising. .
• We had an amazing week last week. .
• The month end has come and gone. .
• And so to see a little selling this week wouldn't be that's surprising. .
• In the pre market this morning, Uber is trading higher. .
• The reason for that is it's being added to the S&P 500. .
• Here's what the weekly chart of Uber looks like. .
• Here's the weekly chart of the stock it's replacing. .
• Looks like, and as we always say, always be upgrading. .
• That's why the stock market indices continue to move higher over time. .
• Now, we're going to be looking at a lot of weekly charts. .
• We'll flip back to a couple of daily .
• charts, but for the most part, we're looking at weekly charts. .
• In this presentation, the VIX actually .
• closed slightly higher on the week, really had an inside week. .
• We're going to remain long term bullish on .
• the market as long as the VIX does not close above $17.96 this coming Friday. .
• Looking at a short term view of the VIX, we're going to remain short term bullish .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $13.79 on Monday. .
• Now, if it doesn't close above that level, .
• then that upper channel is going to continue to move lower. .
• We're going to have trouble seeing the VIX break down from here. .
• We are down to long term support at the 12.50 level. .
• This is where we bottomed in September and .
• the market started to pull back from that point. .
• We're not looking for a huge pullback here. .
• If we look at the daily Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see in the summer, we .
• spiked up to the Fly Paper channel and came right back down. .
• I'm expecting something like that to happen over the next two weeks in early .
• December here before we go into the rest of the year end rally. .
• But we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Looking at a weekly chart of the US. .
• Dollar index, it closed slightly lower on the week after making a new low. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Bond prices continued to move up and bond yields continued to move lower last week. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Crude oil was down on the week. .
• That helps the inflation picture. .
• That helps bond yields continue to move lower. .
• At the present time, it's not so helpful for the Canadian stock market. .
• Natural gas was down over 6% on the week, so no change in trend there. .
• Now here's something interesting. .
• Gold was up sharply on the week and it .
• went into the weekend moving up towards that 2125 level. .
• Now overnight, there was a huge spike in .
• the price of gold and then it completely evaporated. .
• And we're actually trading slightly lower .
• in the pre market at the time of this recording. .
• So we actually traded up over 2125 overnight and then came right back down. .
• So technically gold might have peaked overnight. .
• We'll just have to wait and see how the .
• market digests that move over the next couple of days. .
• For silver, we're looking for a move up to 26. .
• 56 for our next weekly price target. .
• Now the TSX moved up nicely. .
• It's heading up to long term resistance up at the 20,625 level. .
• We'll have to see how the market reacts to that if we can push through it or not. .
• The Dow certainly has pushed through .
• resistance and is starting to trade above our next mathematical price target. .
• We haven't broken away from it, we've just been able to trade above it. .
• Looking at the S&P 500, we still got a .
• ways to go before we get to our next weekly target. .
• But we have come up to our daily target .
• and that's where we peaked out back in the summer. .
• So looking to see if we can break through .
• the 4609.38 level and then looking at the Nasdaq 100, we're pretty well unchanged on .
• the week, and we've come up just below resistance at 16,250. .
• Similar situation for the Nasdaq composite at 14,375. .
• Now, looking at a daily chart of the .
• Russell 2000, we had a huge update on Friday which took us up over the .
• resistance we've been following for the last couple of weeks. .
• That's bullish for the market. .
• It's telling us that the .
• rally is starting to broaden out, so we'll look to see if that can continue. .
• Our next target on both the daily and weekly chart is 1875. .
• For the Russell 2000, we also saw the Nasdaq Next Generation stocks also break .
• out on Friday and break out above the $25 level. .
• We were up nearly 2% on the day. .
• So that's bullish for the overall stock market. .
• Looking at the TSX and we're looking at weekly charts here, you can see mid cap .
• stocks were up back on a weekly buy signal, small cap stocks are back on a .
• weekly buy signal, and the micro cap stocks in the Venture exchange were also .
• up on the week, ending the week on a weekly buy signal. .
• So that's bullish for the market that the rally is starting to broaden out. .
• What might happen between now and year end .
• is we might see some sector rotation in which money comes out of those big cap .
• tech stocks and goes into the undervalued sectors of the market. .
• We'll just have to wait and see if that happens. .
• Certainly month end has come and gone, so that bullish bias is no longer with us. .
• Wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pullback, especially in those big cap tech .
• stocks over the next week or so before the year end rally gets going. .
• Once again, enjoy the rest of your day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .