Hello, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
It's Stephen Whiteside here from .
TheUpTrend.com In the pre-market this morning, stock .
index futures are below fair value, being led lower by the Nasdaq. .
Now, we don't have any major economic .
numbers coming out this morning, so things should be fairly quiet at 9:30, .
even though we are going to see a little selling. .
Looking at the VIX, The VIX traded up to the upper channel line once again on .
Monday, looking for a close above 13.70. Now, the VIX for the Nasdaq .
traded above the upper channel line and closed right on the upper channel line, so .
close above 17.26 would give us a buy signal on Tuesday. .
You're seeing a little more weakness in .
the Nasdaq when just looking at the VIX itself. .
Now, the US dollar index has been up over the past couple of days, and that could be .
negative for stocks if this trend continues. .
So far, we've seen a little weakness in a .
couple of areas and a lot of sector rotation. .
Remember, we were talking about the fact .
that money is starting to come back into those mid-cap, small-cap stocks, and we .
certainly saw that on Friday and on Monday. .
Looking at the DOW, it had an inside day on Monday being led higher by 3M. .
3m led the market higher, I think, two days last week. .
A lot of interest in 3M over the past month. .
Then looking at the S&P 500, down a little .
over half a %, still trading and closing above the upper channel line. .
We dipped into the channel yesterday .
looking for a close below 452.19 on Tuesday. .
That could happen. .
The big winner on the S&P 500 on Monday was Bath and Bodyworks, up over 8%. .
One of the stocks that got kicked out of the S&P 500, Alaska Airlines announced a .
takeover and it was down over 14 % on the day. .
Then looking at the Nasdaq, we dipped below the lower channel line yesterday, .
held the channel line going into the close. .
Certainly, there's a strong likelihood we're going to get a sell signal in the .
Nasdaq on Tuesday with the close below 385.84. .
The big loser on the Nasdaq-100 was Sirius XM. .
It was down over 6% on the day. .
Then Microsoft joined some of the other magnificent eight stocks. .
It is back on a sell signal as of the day's close. .
Then looking at nVidIA, nVidIA bounced off the 450 level. .
Let's see if it can hold that on Tuesday. .
Then looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, we're down slightly on the day. .
Speaking of the Magnificent Eight stocks, Shopify still on a buy signal. .
That would change on Tuesday with a close .
below 95.85. The big winner on the TSX 60 was Cameco, .
while the big winner on the TSX Composite was Tillray, up over 7% on the day. .
Now, what didn't work on Monday, and it .
happened a lot in the pre-market, was gold. .
Gold had a huge reversal day yesterday, .
making a new high for this move, then closing below the previous day's low. .
That is very bearish, but it hasn't been felt throughout the market. .
We did run up and hit our next price target of 2125. .
Congratulations if you had an order and up there, it got filled yesterday. .
If you look at the GLD, you won't see as .
much volatility because the GLD, of course, doesn't start trading until 9:30. .
We did trade lower yesterday, looking for .
a close on Tuesday below 186.18. Then if you look at the gold stocks and .
the silver stocks, they didn't get hit too hard yesterday. .
We're still above the upper channel line for the GDX and the XGD. .
You can see the huge swing in the price of silver, just like gold. .
We certainly closed below the previous days low. .
A close below 24.54 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday. .
Looking at the silver ETF, again, not as .
much volatility to the upside, but we certainly closed sharply lower. .
Looking for a close on Tuesday below .
22.25, silver stocks actually ended the day with an inside day. .
So gold and silver stock investors are .
holding up much better than the precious metals themselves. .
Now, we've talked about sector rotation and the fact that the rally was broadening .
out into mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. .
And that continued on Monday with the iShares for the Russell 2000 moving up and .
the iShares for the Micro-cap sector moving up. .
Now, we do not have a lot of stocks from the Russell 2000. .
We have probably no stocks from the Russell's micro-cap index in our database. .
There are a handful of stocks from the .
Russell 2000 such as Carvana and Beyond Meat. .
Both saw money go in last week and certainly yesterday as well. .
So money is moving into the really the weakest part of the market for 2023, and I .
believe it's coming out of those big cap tech stocks. .
So keep an eye on those. .
I would prefer to just play the ETFs because there's a lot less risk on the .
downside with mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks. .
Certainly, most of them don't make any .
money and can get toppled with just a simple press release. .
I'd rather play the ETFs in those sectors .
than the stocks themselves, but that's just me. .
Now, the money that came out of gold and silver on Monday, where did it go? .
Well, it might have gone into Bitcoin and Ethereum, both gapping higher on Monday. .
Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
We're watching the VIX. .
It could be a buy signal on Tuesday. .
We're watching the US dollar index. .
If both of those move higher, we could see the stock market continue to move lower. .
Is that surprising? .
Well, not for the first week of December. .
We've had a great run in November looking .
to work off some of that overbought condition. .
Some money managers are looking to move .
money around to make themselves look better. .
If they put money in Carvana and Beyond Meat, well, they certainly look better .
this morning than they did a couple of weeks ago. .
We'll just have to wait and see how that works out. .
Enjoy the rest of your day. .
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .