• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from T .
• heUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, and it is fairly early, stock .
• index futures and commodities are trading slightly below fair value. .
• We're even seeing a pullback in both .
• Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of them making new highs last week. .
• Bitcoin's next weekly target is 50,000. .
• For Ethereum, its next weekly target is 25,000. .
• In this presentation, we're mostly going .
• to be looking at weekly charts with the odd daily chart thrown in. .
• It wasn't that long ago, in fact, it was .
• six weeks ago that we were ending our six weeks of fear. .
• And the VIX has been on a sell signal for the last six weeks. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices on a long term basis. .
• That would change this coming Friday if .
• the VIX were to close above $17.32. Then, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you .
• can see we've been trading sideways for the last couple of weeks. .
• We're down at four year lows. .
• We're going to remain short term bullish .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 13.48 on Monday. .
• Now, over the past couple of weeks, the US Dollar index has been falling. .
• That's been supportive for higher stock prices and a higher gold price, but that .
• turned around this week and the US dollar index moved up. .
• And we saw the big reversal in the price of gold. .
• Gold ran up to our 2125 target and quickly reversed. .
• So if you had an order in up there, congratulations, you got filled. .
• Now we're looking to see if gold is going to hold 2000 on a short term basis. .
• Looking at the daily charts, you can see that we broke the current uptrend line and .
• we're back on a daily sell signal as of Friday's close. .
• Now, as I mentioned, 2,000 is going to be a big psychological area of support. .
• We are trading lower this morning, but I .
• don't think we've traded down to 2,000 just yet. .
• Looking at a daily chart of the GDX and .
• the XGD, both are back on sell signals as of Friday's close. .
• Now, we had several opportunities to take .
• money off the table on both of those ETFs and Most of the major gold stocks. .
• So if you're getting kicked out this morning at the open, you have locked in .
• some profits along the way and you should have had a profitable trade. .
• Looking at the bonds, bonds continued to .
• move higher last week and bond yields continue to move lower. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• What's not supportive? .
• Well, in the US, lower energy costs are going to help inflation, they're going to .
• help the Fed and help the overall consumer and possibly the US stock market, but it's .
• not going to help the Canadian stock market at all. .
• So we saw crude oil continue to move lower, down nearly 4%. .
• Gasoline in the US was down over 3%. .
• That's good for the consumer and the overall economy. .
• And then we've got natural gas down nearly 8% on the week. .
• So still no joy for natural gas. .
• And then looking at energy stocks in Canada, which has a more volatile energy .
• sector than the US, energy stocks were down nearly 6%. .
• In the US, they were down over 3%. .
• Looking at the major US indices, the Dow had a fairly quiet week. .
• So did the S&P 500, so did the Nasdaq. .
• So no major changes last week. .
• Some sector rotation going on, but no .
• major pullbacks for the Nasdaq Next Generation. .
• So the next hundred stocks, we had a small .
• pullback, still closing above $25, so nothing to worry about there. .
• Then we had Semiconductors up nicely on the week, making a new high for this move .
• that had a lot to do with AMD, which was up over 6% on the week. .
• Then looking at the Russell 2000 and the .
• Russell Micro Caps, both were up on the week. .
• So that's a little bit of sector rotation and watching the rally broaden out a bit. .
• That could be healthy for the market going forward. .
• Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian market. .
• And unfortunately with commodity prices .
• pulling back, so did the TSX and the TSX 60. .
• We're not that far away from retesting the 2023 highs. .
• But if commodity prices aren't going to .
• help right now, that might not be in the cards for the month of December. .
• That's also true for the TSX 60. .
• And then small cap and micro cap stocks .
• both pulled back on the week on the back of those falling commodity prices. .
• Now financials continued to move higher, as did the Canadian banks. .
• And of course that's very supportive for the overall Canadian stock market. .
• Industrials had a small pullback while Infotech continued to move higher on the .
• back of Bitfarms, which was up over 56% for the week. .
• That's a pretty incredible move for that stock BlackBerry was up nearly 8%. .
• Quarter Hill was up nearly 8%. .
• And then the big elephant in the room was Shopify, which on the week was down 1.13%. .
• And we traded in the channel for the whole week. .
• We dipped through the lower channel line on Thursday, then recovered on Friday. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close below .
• $96..34 If you're following Shopify on the TSX now. .
• Telecom stocks moved up this week. .
• Cogeco Cable was the big winner, up nearly 8%. .
• Still on a weekly sell signal. .
• No change there. .
• The big winner in the sector over the past .
• month has been Rogers, which is up another 2.46% for the week. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• It's still looking pretty good that we're going to finish the year positively. .
• We're going to be watching that daily VIX very closely. .
• Looking at the CNN fear and greed index, .
• we are certainly seeing some greed right now, but nothing extreme. .
• That doesn't mean we can't have some tax .
• loss selling going into year end and we may get some sort of pullback here. .
• But we're still looking pretty positive as we come up to the Christmas holidays. .
• If you've got some extra time and you're looking for something to do, why not .
• consider donating blood around the Christmas holidays? .
• There's more demand than ever for blood and if you've got the time, .
• everybody would really appreciate it if you could consider donating blood. .
• Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .