• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet, stock index futures are .
• slightly below fair value, while commodities are mixed with crude oil .
• higher and gold trading lower in the pre-market. .
• I won't keep you very long this morning. .
• Let's start off with a little housekeeping. .
• Christmas is on Monday. .
• We will be closed next week, but we will come back on Saturday, December 30th, and .
• do a complete daily, weekly, and monthly update of the website. .
• Looking at the VIX, the VIX is just treading water here. .
• Notice that we've got two blue dots here. .
• We've had that before. .
• We are looking for a close on Wednesday above 12.89. If that were to happen, we .
• would turn from being short term bullish to being short term bearish on the market. .
• Now, we talked about watching the bond market and the TLT and the XBB both .
• traded higher on Tuesday, so that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• We saw the US Dollar Index pull back a little. .
• It's still on a sell signal. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Crude Oil continued to move higher on .
• Tuesday and closed above the upper channel line, giving us a new daily buy signal. .
• The TSX Energy sector also .
• generated a new daily buy signal, closing just two cents above the upper channel .
• line, joining US energy stocks already on a buy signal. .
• Well, what worked on Tuesday? .
• Well, silver miners were the big winners. .
• They were up over 3 %, followed by US Gold miners, followed by Copper stocks. .
• And then the TSX Global Gold Index was up just under 2 % on the day, still trying to .
• break out above the highs from a couple of weeks ago. .
• Now, the market is still in love with tech stocks. .
• We saw the Nasdaq-100, the equal-weighted .
• Nasdaq-100, and the Next 100 all make new highs on Tuesday. .
• We also saw a new high for Canadian tech .
• stocks, but they ended the day slightly lower, so no change there. .
• Shopify was able to hit our next price .
• target yesterday, and then semiconductors are up at the recent highs. .
• No change in trend for semiconductors. .
• Now, the majority of stocks in the Nasdaq .
• 100 are included in the S&P 500, which also made a new high on Tuesday. .
• If we look at the percentage of stocks on .
• the S&P 500 currently trading above their 50-day moving average, you can see that .
• we're right up at the top of the levels where we have peaked previously. .
• This is the time and place where you look to sell stocks, not buy stocks. .
• Obviously, a lot of people are buying stocks right now. .
• They are certainly getting in at the end, not the start of anything new. .
• Of course, the best places to look to buy .
• stocks is when an indicator like this is down at the bottom of the level. .
• We talked about this back in the fall when we were looking for the year-end rally set .
• up to start, and it certainly has worked out so far. .
• But yeah, this is the time and place you look to be a seller, not a buyer. .
• When we overlay the S&P 500 on this indicator, you can see that last time we .
• peaked was back in the summer, and that led to a multi-month sell-off. .
• Looking at the seasonality of the S&P 500, and we've been looking at this all year .
• and expecting rally into year end, and that's what we're getting. .
• What happens in January, if you'll look at the bottom left-hand corner here, usually, .
• we get buying into the start and selling into the end of January. .
• And given where the market is right now, I .
• would not be surprised if January ended up being a negative month. .
• Let's finish off this morning's .
• presentation looking at a stock in the news this morning, and that is FedEx. .
• Fedex, like many stocks, bottomed in October and then started to move up off .
• the bottom of the Panic Zones, a pressure zone formed. .
• That was the low risk setup and we've been moving up. .
• We've been up at the top of the Panic Zones for a while, so this is the .
• time and place you look for selling opportunities. .
• Now, when we look at the Fly Paper channel .
• chart, you can see it's not the most volatile stock in the world. .
• The average true range is currently at 1.97%, so just under 2% per day. .
• Yesterday was a fairly quiet day, was down .
• 0.68%. When we look at the Right-Side chart, we are coming into today's trading .
• action, looking for a close below 271.03 to give us a sell signal. .
• Here's where the buy signal showed up, the first close above the upper channel line. .
• You could have bought the next day at 245 .
• and had had lots of opportunity to take money off the table along the way. .
• One of the reasons that we like you to .
• sell into strength is because stocks usually fall faster than they rise. .
• Here's where FedEx is trading. .
• Last time I checked this morning, so down over 10 %, down near the 250 level. .
• If I still owned any FedEx, I wouldn't be selling at the open. .
• Usually, people in the premarket overreact .
• and calmer heads get involved after the market open. .
• So if I still had some FedEx left in my .
• account, I wouldn't be selling at the open. .
• I'd wait to see where it closed this afternoon before I put in a sell order to .
• get rid of the remainder of my FedEx position. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far, it looks like we may get a little selling at the open on Wednesday morning. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time to hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .