• Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, stock .
• index futures are trading below fair value. .
• That could change at 8:30 with economic numbers coming out. .
• We have commodities all trading higher this morning with gold up over $20, and .
• that could certainly help the Canadian stock market on Friday. .
• One of the reasons futures are trading lower is because of Nike. .
• Nike, like many other stocks, is coming .
• into Friday's trading action and still looking very bullish. .
• Unfortunately, the market's reaction to .
• its earnings have pulled the stock down sharply. .
• Of course, we've seen this several times over the past few days. .
• Of course, we've talked about locking in profits, taking money off the table, over .
• the last week, and hopefully, if you were trading Nike, you have done so. .
• Now, Wednesday was a bearish reversal day, and so we are looking to see if that's the .
• top for the market for this particular move. .
• When we look at bearish reversal days, of course, they're one day events. .
• They still need to be confirmed. .
• Now, the high from the SPY on Wednesday .
• was 475.90. So this signal is still live until we close above that level. .
• And yesterday, we did not do that. .
• We got as high as 472.80. So Wednesday signal is still in play. .
• It hasn't been eliminated and it hasn't been confirmed yet either. .
• So we're still waiting to see what happens. .
• Now, Thursday turned out to be an inside day. .
• Thursday's trading action actually fit within Wednesday's trading action, whether .
• you're looking at the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, or the TSX 60. .
• We all had inside days across the board. .
• Thursday was a day of indecision, a pause day, waiting for more data. .
• The VIX is still moving up. .
• It closed down slightly at the end of the day yesterday, but fear is still rising. .
• You can see the nice set of blue dots across the bottom here. .
• We're on a buy signal. .
• We made a new high for this move on Thursday. .
• And so options traders are nervous at the moment. .
• Not so much for bond traders. .
• Yesterday was a bearish reversal day for the TLT and the XBB, but really no sign of .
• major change in direction for the bond market. .
• So that's still supportive for higher stock prices. .
• The US Dollar index closed, made a new .
• closing low yesterday, and that is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Looking at the price of gold, gold has .
• been treading water for the past few days, while silver has been pushing higher. .
• Gold is up over $20 in the premarket this .
• morning, so gold is going to start to sync up with the price of silver. .
• Then looking at crude oil, we're on a buy signal right now. .
• We had a small pullback yesterday. .
• We're trading higher this morning, and .
• natural gas closed higher yesterday, still looking for a close on Friday above .
• $2.36. Now, the biggest stock in the US, of course, is Apple. .
• Apple is not looking very bullish right now. .
• We've had several early warning signals across the top of the screen. .
• You can see we're projecting down towards 175, 180. .
• That certainly has not started yet. .
• We'll have to see what happens next. .
• But the pros are not that bullish on the stock at the moment. .
• They haven't started to sell, but I think they've given up buying right now. .
• On Friday, we're looking for a close below 194.09 to give us a sell signal for Apple, .
• and that would certainly be bearish for the market. .
• On the TSX, the biggest player is the Royal Bank. .
• It's currently ranked at 10, way up there .
• at the top, over the top of the panic zones. .
• We had a bearish reversal day on Wednesday. .
• Thursday turned out to be an inside day, .
• and we are looking for a close on Friday below 128.44. .
• I certainly don't expect that to happen, .
• and the lower channel line, of course, is going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Let's finish off this morning's presentation with a little chart school. .
• You've always heard me say follow the money, ignore the news. .
• What I mean by that is that we are very poor at figuring out the connection .
• between a news event and what the market is going to do with that news event. .
• Instead of using our intuition to try to .
• figure out what's going to happen, it's best to let the market digest that news .
• and follow the money as opposed to the news story. .
• For example, if I show you these two current headlines regarding the Argentine .
• economy, you would assume, more than likely, that the Argentine stock market .
• would be in the tank or at least trending lower at the moment. .
• And that's certainly not what's happening. .
• If I showed you any headline out of the .
• Middle East, anything to do with Israel at the moment, your gut feeling, your .
• intuition would be that the Israeli stock market is probably in turmoil at the .
• moment, and that is certainly not the case. .
• So it's important to listen to the news, .
• to read the news, to watch the news, but don't react to the news. .
• Let the market react to the news .
• and follow the market's reaction, not your intuition. .
• Because you, me, our intuitions are not .
• usually very good at figuring out how the market is going to react to a news story. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• And that's all for me for 2023. .
• This is my last public presentation for the year. .
• Now, I'm off to donate blood this morning. .
• And if you've got some free time over the .
• holidays, you might consider donating blood as well. .
• If you're a male and you have concerns about your cardiovascular health, donating .
• blood is one of the best things you can do. .
• This will be my 58th blood donation. .
• And remember, if you're donating blood, we offer a blood donors reward program. .
• We will give discounts to anybody who's donating blood. .
• So check that out on our website. .
• We are closed next week. .
• Next week is a holiday shortened week, and we are coming up to month end, year end. .
• That usually has a little bullish bias to it, so not expecting a lot of negative .
• downward pressure next week for the stock market. .
• And so that's all for me. .
• This will be my 23rd year of wishing everybody a merry Christmas. .
• We're going into our 24th year next year. .
• So thank you very much for your time, your attention, your support. .
• Very much appreciate it. .
• I wish you and your family a merry .
• Christmas and happy holidays and a happy New Year. .