• Hello, everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. .
• I hope everyone's having a wonderful weekend. .
• This is the last day of 2023, so I thought I'd do a little recap video. .
• We don't have anything planned for New Year's. .
• We're going to stay home with a couple of .
• nice bottles of wine and just enjoy the evening. .
• We're not big on going out on New Year's .
• Eve, so not going to get into too much trouble tonight. .
• For 2023, the best performing stock on the TSX Composite was Celestica. .
• The worst stock was First, Quantum. .
• Then looking at the S&P 500, the big winner, of course, was NVIDIA . .
• NVIDIA ran up to $500 during the summer and hasn't been able to get anywhere since .
• then, but it is still up near $500, closed at $495.22. The worst performing stock on .
• the S&P 500 this year was Enphase, down a little over 50% on the year. .
• Now, out of the three major indices that we follow on a daily basis, the TSX was .
• the worst performer, up a little over 8% on the year. .
• And like all the major indices, all the gains came in the last nine weeks of the .
• year, and we'll look at why that was in a couple of minutes. .
• 126 stocks on the TSX Composite ended the year positive. .
• One was unchanged and 97 stocks ended the year lower. .
• For the S&P 500, which includes those big .
• cap tech stocks that everybody was following was up over 24%. .
• 323 stocks were positive, 178 stocks ended the year negative. .
• And then, of course, those big cap tech .
• stocks are concentrated in the Nasdaq 100, which was up over 53%. .
• 80 stocks ended the year higher, while only 20 ended the year lower. .
• Now, seasonally, we were anticipating a year end rally. .
• We got that. Month end turned out pretty good. .
• Automatic money comes in at the end of the month. .
• Traders don't usually like to trade against that. .
• We did see some tax loss selling over the .
• past few days, but not enough to give us any major sell signals. .
• Now, we were fear-free for 9 weeks, and it was during those nine weeks that most of .
• the gains for the year were made, and that is going to continue. .
• We are going to remain long-term bullish .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.71 this coming Friday. .
• Now, if you're a short-term trader, we did get a buy signal in the VIX, .
• so we did see some tax loss selling, but not enough to push the markets over. .
• The major indices are all still on buy signal, so that has not changed. .
• If you're a short-term trader, we're going to remain short-term bullish on the market .
• as long as the VIX does not close above 13.31 on Tuesday. .
• Now, over the last couple of weeks, we've been talking about the fact that there's .
• many people doing what's called Panic Buying. .
• Of course, Panic Buying is when a trend is coming to an end. .
• Currently, the SPY ETF is on the weekly chart is ranked a 10. .
• No Early Warning Signals so far. .
• An Early Warning Signal usually comes when we close below the previous week's low. .
• We haven't done that yet, so there's really no sign of weakness so far. .
• Just if you jump in at this point, you're taking on an enormous amount of risk. .
• Now, on the daily chart, we're ranked at nine. .
• We have had an early warning signal so far .
• that has not been enough to give us a Sell signal. .
• You can see we dropped down to the upper .
• channel line for a couple of days and then started to move back up. .
• On Friday, we closed right above the upper .
• channel line, but we did touch the upper channel line during the day. .
• So for short term traders who are following the money, we're looking for a .
• close on Tuesday below $470.61. If that doesn't happen, that lower channel .
• line is going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Now, for more conservative investors who .
• are watching the market daily and need more evidence, so short term price action .
• isn't enough, they probably want to see some negative headlines. .
• They probably want to mull things over over a weekend, so they need a couple more .
• days of downward pressure before they're motivated enough to sell. .
• We're looking for a close on Tuesday below 4:65. .
• Now, for longer term investors who are not .
• trading the market, they're going to be using weekly charts. .
• Right now, the weekly Right Side chart is telling us that we need a close below .
• $446.94. Of course, that's not going to happen this .
• Friday, so that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher weekly, .
• and more conservative long-term investors are going to need a close below $440. .
• Again, that's not going to happen this .
• week, so that tether line is going to continue to move higher weekly. .
• Now, if we do get a pullback at some .
• point, the market is going to be looking at a couple of things. .
• First of all, will the S&P hold the summer high? .
• Or if that breaks, they're going to be looking to see if the fall-low will hold .
• the market, and that'll take us back down to the bottom of the Fly Paper channel. .
• That's a major pullback, but it's not the end of the world. .
• If we can get a pullback to that level, .
• that would be a good spot to look for new buying opportunities. .
• But of course, we're not there yet. .
• We haven't started to move down. .
• The first sign that something new is .
• happening is going to be a close below the previous week's low. .
• Of course, that hasn't happened yet. .
• Now, this is the point in the presentation .
• where I open my book of 2024 and tell you my predictions for the year. .
• That's really not going to happen. .
• I can give you 101 reasons why the market .
• is going to go up in 2024, and I can give you 101 reasons why it's going to go down. .
• At the end of the day, I'm here to Follow .
• The Money not to try to anticipate what's going to happen. .
• I'm here to look at the evidence of what's happening and deal with that evidence. .
• I can make predictions. .
• You can make predictions. I can make predictions. .
• But at the end of the day, that's probably not going to help me make any money. .
• Now, the Magnificent Eight is still going .
• to be magnificent, but most of the wind is already out of these stocks, and everybody .
• knows about them, and most of the gains have been made. .
• They're still going to play a major role in the market, but they're not going to .
• make as many headlines in 2024 as they did in 2023. .
• That's not a prediction. That's just what generally happens. .
• But they are huge, massive companies, and .
• we'll still hear about them every single day. .
• Now, what we're going to have to keep an eye on, if the US dollar turns around and .
• starts moving higher, that could hurt the stock market. .
• Of course, if bonds start falling, that's going to put upward pressure on bond .
• yields, and we don't want to see that happen. .
• There are some external things that can happen that can hurt the market, .
• especially from currencies and from the bond market. .
• Remember, the bond market is much bigger than the stock market. .
• When the bond market moves, the stock market really doesn't have any .
• choice but to move in the opposite direction. .
• Now, seasonality-wise, you can see in the .
• S&P 500 down here, we usually get a pullback in January, .
• another little run up in February, and then a major pullback in March. .
• Not looking for a lot of love in the first .
• quarter of 2024 from the seasonality charts. .
• For the TSX, it doesn't look very good for January at all. .
• In February, we get that retirement money. .
• All that money going into the RSP accounts usually help move the market up. .
• That money often goes into the most .
• conservative stocks, so into the financial sector for sure. .
• Then we get a pullback in March. .
• A little more love for the TSX in .
• February, but again, we get a pullback in March. .
• That's what the seasonality charts tell us. .
• The seasonality charts, of course, are .
• just averages over the long term, and they don't dictate exactly what's going to .
• happen, but they give us a good guidepost to what could happen in the future. .
• Now, when we look at the percentage of stocks on the S&P 500 currently .
• trading above their 200-day moving average, we still have some room to go. .
• That is giving the bulls a target up there. .
• But when we look at a shorter term chart, .
• so this is the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 currently above their 50-day .
• moving average, you can see we are up at the top of the range. .
• You look for lower risk buying opportunities down at the bottom here. .
• We look for low risk selling opportunities up at the top here. .
• If we overlay the S&P 500 on this chart, you can see that when we get up to that .
• level, that's usually where we start to pull back. .
• Of course, you can pull back from lower .
• levels than we are now, but right back here, the indicator was way up here, and .
• you can see the market topped and pulled back. .
• That's what we're looking for going into January. .
• This is a very high risk time and place to put long term money into the market. .
• Then looking at the percentage of stocks on the TSX currently trading above their .
• 50-day moving average, again, we're up at the top of the range. .
• Now, it's no guarantee that on Tuesday, .
• the market is going to pull back and pull back for weeks at a time. .
• But the law of averages tell us that this .
• is not the time and place to be putting money into the stock market. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation .
• looking at a couple of monthly price targets. .
• For the SPY, we're up at the previous highs from 2021. .
• If we're going to continue higher from .
• here, we're just less than $25 away from hitting $500. .
• If the market still wants to stretch .
• higher, that could certainly be our next target. .
• Now looking at the Nasdaq-100, which has .
• led the market higher, again, we're up at the previous highs. .
• We've hit the 406.25 level. .
• We closed three dollars and change above that on Friday. .
• If we continue higher from here, 437.50 would be our next monthly target. .
• Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, if we want to go back up to the .
• 2021 highs, then 34.38 would be our next target. .
• You can see we petered out just below that level back a couple of years ago. .
• Three legitimate price targets to the .
• upside if the market wants to continue to move higher from here. .
• Okay, thank you very much, everyone, for your time and attention. .
• I really appreciate your support and wish you and your family all the best in 2024. .