• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend.com. In the pre market this .
• morning, stock index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. .
• Gold's down $22. .
• Crude oil is down $2. .
• The Dow is down, leading the stock index futures lower. .
• And that has a lot to do with one stock, and that is Boeing. .
• And Boeing's down over 8% in the pre market on Monday morning. .
• So that's where you're getting a lot of the weakness from. .
• Now, last week was all about technology .
• stocks with semiconductors leading the tech sector lower. .
• You can see that on Tuesday we gapped lower. .
• On Wednesday we gapped lower. .
• And on Thursday we gapped lower. .
• So a lot of aggressive selling in the semiconductors last week. .
• If we look at where we can get support, we're currently holding support at the 50 .
• day moving average at the top of the Fly Paper Channel. .
• And you can see that there is a lot of potential support down of the $200 level. .
• So we may be heading in that direction this week. .
• Now, Apple was a big loser last week as well. .
• And of course, being the biggest company in the world, it is going to have an .
• effect on all the major stock market indices. .
• And that is certainly what happened last week. .
• We're trying to hold 180. .
• If 180 breaks, then 175 is our next target to the downside. .
• Now, looking at the weekly chart of the VIX, the VIX was up last week over 7%. .
• We're still going to remain long term bullish on the market as long as the VIX .
• does not close above 15.39 this coming Friday. .
• Now, if you're watching the market on .
• Monday, we're coming into Monday's trading action with the VIX on a buy signal. .
• So short term, we're bearish on the market. .
• That would change on Monday if the VIX were to close below 12.87. Now, even with .
• Apple being in the Dow, the Dow actually held up fairly well last week. .
• So we're still on a buy signal. .
• That will probably change on Monday if the Dow diamonds close below 373.56. .
• And we've got the ishares for the TSX 60 .
• still trading and closing above the upper channel line. .
• So holding up very well last week when you .
• compare that to the S&P 500 already on a sell signal. .
• And of course, technology stocks in the Nasdaq led the market lower last week. .
• And we saw weakness in the Equal Weighted and the Next Generation Nasdaq 100 stocks. .
• We also saw weakness in the Russell 2000 and the micro cap sector. .
• So a lot of weakness across the board, outside of the Dow 30 and the TSX 60. .
• Then, looking at a weekly chart of the .
• S&P 500, we did close below the previous week's low. .
• We do have an early warning signal on the weekly panic zone chart. .
• And the pros are starting to turn down. .
• They're nowhere near giving up control this week. .
• But that's not a very bullish looking chart at the present time. .
• Now, looking at the Canadian stock market, yes, we have held up over the past week. .
• We've been stuck at resistance here, looking at the TSX composite index. .
• If we can take out the recent high, then .
• our next mathematical target is 21,250, both on the daily and the weekly charts. .
• And so that is certainly doable, but not .
• on Monday, because we're seeing a little selling in the commodity sector, and .
• that's not going to help the Canadian stock market on Monday. .
• Now, there's a big difference between the canadian stock market and the US stock .
• market, even though we're holding up fairly well right now. .
• When we look at the Nasdaq 100 and we're .
• looking at a weekly Fly Paper Channel chart, you can see that .
• we started to turn up in early 2023, and that trend is still heading higher. .
• We're making new highs up here, and we're using the Fly Paper Channel as support. .
• So if we were to pull back, we would look for a pullback to the Fly Paper Channel .
• and then look for buying opportunities from that point. .
• Now, you can see that the Nasdaq 100 has been trending higher. .
• It's kind of hard to see that upward trend .
• on the TSX, the TSX 60, or the mid caps or even small caps. .
• Small caps definitely trending lower, and micro caps certainly trending lower. .
• So the canadian market has a couple of .
• pockets that have been doing well, but otherwise, it's not looking very good. .
• Now, energy stocks, of course, have been .
• in the news all through 2023, and we made a high in 2022. .
• We haven't been back there yet. .
• Now, this is a very confusing chart because it's got something for everybody. .
• For the bears, we've made a series of lower highs. .
• So that's very bearish. .
• There's a high lower high, lower high now for the bulls. .
• Hey, what have we got? .
• We got higher lows, and it looks like we recently put in another higher low. .
• So something for everybody here. .
• We're still using the Fly Paper Channel as support. .
• That hasn't broken yet. .
• So looking for buying opportunities in the energy sector that might not see any .
• follow through on Monday given what commodity prices are doing now. .
• Financials over the past couple of weeks popped out of the top of the .
• Fly Paper Channel and took a run at the highs from early 2023. .
• And so it'll be interesting to see if we can get any fall through to the upside. .
• We might be able to if bank stocks can keep going. .
• They're stuck on the Fly Paper Channel, .
• but we still got some room to go to get back up to those 2023 highs. .
• And so that is certainly doable at this time. .
• Move up to the 420 area, then looking at gold stocks. .
• We're stuck in the Fly Paper Channel right now. .
• And again, remember, we're looking at weekly charts here. .
• We've also got the base metals stuck in the Fly Paper Channel. .
• The industrials are still using the Fly Paper Channel as support. .
• And there is certainly a trend higher here that is very obvious. .
• And we've also got a trend higher in the infotech sector. .
• This chart looks very similar to the Nasdaq 100. .
• So you can see that, yes, we did get some .
• action in the tech sector last year, but tech sector is a lot smaller in the .
• canadian market than it is in the US market. .
• And then materials in the Fly Paper Channel, no joy there. .
• No joy for real estate, no joy for the telcos. .
• So canadian market looking much different than the US market at the present time. .
• The TSX 60 is holding up very well, but certainly we're not getting .
• the kind of excitement they're getting in the US from the tech sector. .
• Let's finish off with the big five charts. .
• And we were wanting to see the US dollar index continue to move lower. .
• That didn't happen last week. .
• So the US dollar index moved up. .
• That put downward pressure on stocks. .
• We also wanted to see bonds continue to move higher. .
• They had a pullback last week that put upward pressure on bond yields. .
• We didn't want to see that happen. .
• That's not good for stocks. .
• So hopefully those trends can reverse. .
• Then looking at the price of gold down $22 .
• on the week, it's down another $20 in the pre market this morning. .
• So still trading above $2,000. .
• That of course will be a psychological breaking point if we start trading back .
• down below $2,000 and then looking at crude oil. .
• Crude oil was up on the week. .
• It's down about that amount in the pre market this morning. .
• So no joy for the energy sector. .
• The energy sector falling can certainly help the consumer. .
• But for stock investors, we were hoping that crude oil could head up from here and .
• help push energy stocks back up once again. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far. .
• It looks like we're going to see some selling at the open on Monday morning. .
• And with the VIX on a buy signal right .
• now, that's kind of what we're expecting to happen at the present time. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .