• Hello, everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from .
• theuptrend.com, and I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. .
• In this presentation, I thought we'd spend .
• some time talking about a Trading Strategy for 2024. .
• Now, at the start of the year, everybody .
• wants to know everybody's predictions, and I really don't want to make any because I .
• really don't know which way the market is going to go. .
• I can give you a very strong bullish case. .
• I can also give you a very strong bearish case. .
• At the end of the day, we're here to follow the money. .
• If we can follow the money in both .
• directions, then it's a lot easier to make money at the end of the year. .
• We can do that by using Leveraged ETFs. .
• We really don't care if the Bulls or the Bears win Over the short term. .
• Of course, over the long term, the Bulls .
• always win because the market is designed to go up over the long term. .
• But in the short term, the market can go down. .
• It can go down sharply. .
• And if it wants to go down, we can make money as it falls .
• and not have to worry about which way the market is actually going. .
• Having a strategy based on the market always going up, works over the long term, .
• but it certainly can be dangerous over the short term. .
• Now, the leveraged ETFs come in pairs. .
• You have a bullish one and a corresponding bearish one. .
• We can be basically market neutral, not .
• caring whether the market goes up or goes down. .
• If the market is going up, we can be long the bull ETF. .
• If the market is going down, we can be long the bear ETF. .
• We can also be diversified. .
• We can pick multiple indexes to follow. .
• We can also look at different sectors of .
• the market that we can either be long or short in. .
• It's up to you which ones you want to be involved in. .
• We are first going to start off looking at .
• the US market and some US examples, and then we're going to move on to the .
• Canadian market and some Canadian examples. .
• Starting off in the US, looking at the S&P 500 Index. .
• On Friday, it was up 1.23%. .
• Now, the corresponding ETF, which is the SPY, which is a 1X ETF. .
• It's not a multiple of the S&P 500, it is an S&P 500 equivalent. .
• It was up a couple of ticks more than the .
• index itself, so 1.25%. Now, leveraged ETFs come in multiples of .
• that, so either a 2X, 3X, or a brand new, the 4X ETFs. .
• In Canada, we have 2X ETFs available to us. .
• In the US, the most popular are the 3X, .
• and 4X ETFs just came out recently, and not many people are using them so far. .
• Now, I always recommend that you have a basket of these ETFs. .
• Typically, you're looking at five areas of the market and with a bull and a bear ETF. .
• So there's two ETFs for each of your choices. .
• And we'll take a look at some of those in a minute. .
• But these are trading tools. .
• They're not investing tools. .
• And so they are not equivalents. .
• If you want to be a long term investor in .
• the S&P 500, the SPY would be the best solution. .
• Using the leveraged ETFs, they can lose .
• money over time depending on how many times the market changes direction. .
• We're specifically talking about a short term trading strategy here. .
• We're not talking about an investing strategy. .
• Looking at the 3X Bull ETF for the S&P .
• 500, if the S&P 500 was up 1.23%, a 3X Bull should be up 3.69% on Friday. .
• Well, in fact, the 3X Bull ETF was up 3.62%, so just a few ticks below what our .
• target price would have been, but that's pretty close. .
• The flip side of that is that the 3X Bear ETF was down 3.72% on the day. .
• So again, we've got the opportunity to be .
• either long a Bull or long a bear ETF for each one of these markets. .
• Now, the rules are the same and they're pretty simple. .
• A Buy signal is the first close above the upper channel line, and a Sell signal is .
• the first close below the lower channel line. .
• Of course, we're going to have profit targets for every symbol, and we're going .
• to try to take money off the table as a market moves in our direction. .
• But coming in on Monday, if we were to .
• close below $101.34, that would give us a Sell signal, and we come in on Tuesday .
• morning and liquidate the remainder of our position. .
• Now, we do have 15 charts in the database for every symbol. .
• We've got seven daily, seven weekly, and one monthly chart. .
• In this trading strategy, we're only using two charts, and that's the Daily Right .
• Side Chart and the Daily Price Targets Chart. .
• And in this particular example for the 3X ETF, we're looking to Sell When we get up .
• to 112.50. I would put an order in just below that level. .
• Now, as you can see, as the market is .
• hitting all time highs, it's also up at the top of our projected trading range. .
• There's no guarantee we're going to stop .
• at 112.50. So if you just do the math, it's easy enough to look at the difference .
• between the lines as you see them on the screen right now .
• and just add another segment above, and that takes us up to 118.75. .
• Now, my strategy strategy has always been to Sell half a position at the first price .
• target and then Sell half of the remainder position at the next price target. .
• Coming into Monday's trading action, you .
• can see for the triples for the Nasdaq 100, we're nowhere near the lower channel .
• line, so not concerned about seeing a Sell signal on Monday. .
• For the triple Q's, once again, we're up .
• at the top of the projected trading range up there at 56.25. .
• If we start trading above that level, and the next mathematical target right now is .
• 59.38, once we start trading above the top of the projected trading range for a .
• couple of days, we will recalculate a new playing field with higher projections. .
• But right now, we are just coming up to the top of the projected trading range. .
• Now, all of these ETFs that I'm showing are very liquid. .
• For this particular example, the triple .
• Q's for the Nasdaq 100 traded over 92 million shares on Friday. .
• Now, when we look into the different .
• sectors, it's up to you what you're interested in. .
• I'm mostly interested in resource stocks. .
• Some people are interested in biotechs or financials, etc. .
• And so right now, the bear ETF for the energy sector is currently on a Buy .
• signal, making a new high for this move on Thursday, coming back a little on Friday. .
• We hit our next price target of 31.25 on Thursday. .
• So congratulations. You got to lock in some profits. .
• Our next profit target is 32.81. Then .
• looking at the bear ETF for the gold sector. .
• For DUST, Dust. .
• We are hitting a new high on Friday. .
• Our next price target is 13.28. As you can .
• see, we've been short the gold miners since the start of the year. .
• Now, another area of the market you might find interesting is the small caps, and .
• we've been bearish on the small caps all through the start of 2024. .
• Now, we dipped into the channel on Friday, .
• so there's a mathematical possibility of a Sell signal for the bear ETF on with a .
• close below 21.93. We were trying to get to $25. .
• That was our next profit target. .
• So far, we have not been able to do that. .
• So this trade could end without taking any profits. .
• Looking at the bull ETF for the small caps, and again, this is fairly liquid. .
• Over 29 million shares traded on Friday. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close above 35.70 to give us a new daily Buy signal. .
• Now, this is all emotional free trading. .
• I'm going into Monday not caring at all which way the market goes this week. .
• If it's going to go up, that's great. .
• If it's going to go down, it doesn't really matter. .
• I'm going to be able to have the .
• opportunity to make money no matter which way the market goes. .
• Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian 2X ETFs. .
• If you're not a Canadian investor, if you're not involved in Canadian market, I .
• would suggest you just watch to the end of the video because you may learn a couple .
• of more things here that I have not mentioned already. .
• The Canadian market is a little different than US market right now. .
• We are currently short the Canadian market or long the bear ETF. .
• And so coming into Monday's trading .
• action, the bear ETF actually dipped into the channel on Friday. .
• And so on Monday, we're looking for a .
• close below $6.40 to kick us out of the bear ETF. .
• Now, you'd think that we'd automatically go into the bull ETF if that were to .
• happen, but transitions don't always happen on the same day. .
• So it is possible that we get a .
• Sell signal in the bear, but not get a Buy signal in the bull on the same day. .
• And sometimes those transitions don't happen at all. .
• We could get a Sell signal in the bear on Monday, have the market pull back on .
• Tuesday, and still not get a Buy signal in the bull. .
• And in fact, if the market would continue .
• to move lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, we might actually have to go back into the .
• bear ETF and not spend any time at all in the bull ETF. .
• So speaking of the bull ETF, we're looking for a close on Monday above $20.15. .
• Now, the bull ETF was up 1.42% on Friday, so that should be twice as much as the .
• unhedged ETF, and that was up 0.76%. So the XIU, which is the most .
• actively traded and actively followed ETF in Canada, was up 0.76 %. .
• So a little less than what the 2X ETF was, but pretty close. .
• And so you're almost getting twice the bang for your buck using the 2X ETF. .
• Now, in Canada, the selection is not as big as it is in the US. .
• Now, for Canadian investors looking for .
• Canadian-only options, I would suggest these five pairs. .
• Now, there are other pairs available. .
• In fact, natural gas is one of the most popular, but it is extremely volatile. .
• And if you want to play with this one, .
• well, you need to be a very seasoned a trader to do so. .
• Looking at the bear ETF for natural gas on Friday, it was actually down nearly 14% on .
• the day, and that's not unusual for this particular ETF. .
• So that's extreme volatility. .
• At the other end, you've got very thinly traded ETFs such as the financials. .
• Now, financials by themselves are not the .
• most volatile sector of the market to begin with. .
• This area of the market doesn't attract a lot of traders. .
• In fact, for this particular ETF, the bull .
• ETF for the financial sector, it was less than 10,000 shares traded on Friday. .
• Just be aware of that. .
• I'm looking at the major pairs. .
• For the TSX, for the S&P 500, if we look at this chart, you can see we .
• dipped down and spent all day trading below the lower channel line. .
• But if we go back to Wednesday's chart, .
• you can see we were looking for a close below $17.89. We actually closed at .
• $17.90, so right one penny above the channel line. .
• So that did not generate a Sell signal. .
• Our first profit target for the S&P 500 2X .
• ETF is 18.75, then 19.53. Looking at the Nasdaq 100, again, making new highs here. .
• And in this case, we're trading above our projected trading range. .
• And of course, over the next couple of .
• days, if we stay up here, we're going to calculate a new playing field. .
• But right now, if you just do the math, the next price target is 1797. .
• And as a backup, you can always go to the weekly chart. .
• I said we only use two charts, but .
• sometimes you might want to go to the weekly chart and see that the next major .
• price target is 18.75. Now, looking at the energy sector, we are .
• long the bear ETF at the moment, looking for a move up to 6.25. .
• For gold stocks, again, we are long the bear ETF. .
• Our next profit target is 6.64. We've already hit a couple of profit .
• targets during the month of January and looking to continue to move higher. .
• Is this a realistic target? .
• Well, yeah, we were up at that level back .
• in November, so it is certainly a realistic target to the upside. .
• Okay, let me wrap up this presentation by .
• giving you one more very interesting tidbit, and that is the fact that you can .
• do this trading strategy in a retirement account. .
• It's not normal for you to be able to .
• short a stock or short the market in a retirement a retirement account, but you .
• can go long a bear ETF in a retirement account. .
• That means you can make money when the market is falling and everybody else is .
• crying about the fact their retirement investments are going down. .
• Again, this is a trading strategy, not an investing strategy. .
• You should be diversified. .
• It's fun to start out with just one ETF, .
• but you probably want to start off with several pairs. .
• I recommend five, some indexes, sectors. .
• As I mentioned, I have an interest in the resource sector. .
• Some people have a strong interest in biotechs and semiconductors and other .
• areas of the market that we didn't talk about here, and that is certainly doable. .
• There's lots of opportunities, especially in the US market, to be diversified. .
• Okay, thank you very much for your time and attention. .
• Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .
• And of course, if you have any questions .
• at all, please drop me an email, and I'll .
• be glad to reply as quickly as possible. .