• Hello everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. .
• Stock index futures are trading around fair value. .
• Gold is higher while crude oil is slightly lower on Monday morning. .
• Let's start off this morning with a little .
• housekeeping, and we've got a schedule change starting today. .
• I'm going to start covering the US markets on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and do a .
• deeper dive into the Canadian markets on Tuesday and Thursday. .
• So today, we're just going to look at the US market. .
• Now, typically, coming into month-end, I .
• would tell you to relax, and the market usually has a bullish bias to it, and .
• there's no history of the market having a major crash at the end of the month. .
• But This month is different. .
• We've got a jam-packed week coming up, .
• lots and lots of earnings, and we've got a bunch of economic numbers coming out. .
• We also have a Fed meeting, and so that's the 30th and 31st. .
• That, of course, could add a tremendous amount of .
• volatility to the market, depending on what they say. .
• This is going to be a very interesting week for the market. .
• Now, coming into the market, things are still looking very bullish. .
• We're hitting all-time new highs. .
• The VIX has been in a tight range for a while now, and looking at a monthly chart .
• of the VIX, we know that we're not going to expect a major decline in the stock .
• market unless the VIX starts poking over the $20 level. .
• On a shorter term time frame, we're going .
• to remain long term bullish, so that's using the weekly charts .
• on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 14.88 this coming Friday. .
• And if you're a short term trader on Monday, we're going to remain bullish on .
• the market as long as the VIX does not close above 13.89. Now, the VIX recently .
• had a pop, and the market really didn't take too much notice of it. .
• Really, we're probably going to have to .
• see the VIX poke out above 15 before the market really gets overly concerned. .
• The VIX represents how options traders feel about risk in the market. .
• Right now, we're pretty neutral, and so not too worried. .
• But if you look at the VIX chart, it's rather interesting. .
• It's setting up quite a bullish pattern .
• where we're making a series of higher highs and higher lows. .
• That's usually the sign that a bullish trend is about to start, that it certainly .
• hasn't started coming into Monday's trading action. .
• Now, the rest of the charts in this .
• presentation are going to be weekly charts, and of course, technology, .
• just by the weight of this sector, is leading the market higher. .
• Might not be in percentage terms, but .
• you can see the technology, SPDR ETF, making a new high. .
• We had a new high in communication .
• services, and a lot of that action last week had to do with Netflix. .
• Now, semiconductors were down nearly 2% on .
• the week, and that could be a big red flag for the market. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• We're certainly still on a weekly buy .
• signal here, back on a daily sell signal, though. .
• If we look, we had a bearish reversal signal a month ago, we put in a lower high .
• a month ago, and then last week, we put in another lower high. .
• So it'll be interesting if this particular ETF, the XSD, can hold the 203.13 level. .
• Going forward, right now, we're still .
• stuck up at the 218.75 level, but certainly be a tell if the semiconductors .
• started to break down and started to lead the market lower. .
• Looking at the Dow, new high for the Dow, .
• new high for the S&P 500, new high for the Nasdaq 100. .
• The Russell 2000 was up nearly 2% on the week. .
• Microcaps were up 2.68% on the week. .
• That's all looking bullish. .
• Financials made a new high. .
• Now, it wasn't on the back of banks that .
• were up or regional banks that were up or the broker dealers, of course. .
• And what we've been noticing over the past year or so is that it's really the .
• insurance companies leading the financial sector higher. .
• Energy stocks were the big winner on the week. .
• Not enough to give us a weekly buy signal, .
• but lots of short term action on the daily charts. .
• Let's finish off taking a look at commodities. .
• And we had crude oil up. .
• It's back on a weekly buy signal. .
• The pros haven't taken control yet, but .
• let's just say this is week one of an uptrend, and we're looking to see if .
• we can repeat something like this from last summer into the fall. .
• That would take us up two lines, back up to the $87.50 level. .
• That's how I would measure it. .
• Of course, we know that we traded above .
• that, so there's going to be a lot of people looking for a move up to $90. .
• But let's just start with two lines up, .
• 87.50. That's a reasonable target for crude oil. .
• Unfortunately, natural gas was down nearly three and a half %. .
• The pros do not look like they're interested in taking control right now. .
• That is unfortunate. .
• Now, looking at the miners, copper was up nicely on the week. .
• Not enough to give us a buy signal. .
• Copper miners were up as well. .
• Not enough to give us a buy signal. .
• The price of gold was down $12.50. No change in trend there, sitting right on .
• the edge of a weekly sell signal for the price of gold. .
• Since last fall, the price of gold has traded between 1875 and 2125. .
• So about 95 % of the trading action has been between those two lines. .
• Right in the middle is the big psychological area of support of $2,000. .
• So it'll be quite a tell if gold starts breaking down below $2,000. .
• Now, gold Gold miners were up on the week. .
• Certainly not enough to even get back into the channel. .
• We're looking to see if gold can start to turn around. .
• It is up in the pre-market this morning, so we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Then looking at silver, silver was .
• actually up on the week, but it traded all the way down to $22 in bounce. .
• $22 is acting as support at the moment. .
• Mathematically, it's $21.87 is our mathematical price target. .
• If we start breaking down, of course, we .
• have the previous lows here from $20.23 that could potentially act as support. .
• But if you're looking for a new playing .
• field, if we do break down below $21.87, then down to $18.75, that would be our .
• playing field, and that would take us back to the lows from 2022. .
• We're not there yet. We're just projecting what could happen if .
• we start breaking down and we start making lower lows. .
• You can see that we recently put in a high. .
• It It was actually higher than the .
• previous two, but certainly not a retest of the previous high. .
• For both gold and silver, we're just .
• sitting waiting to see which way the market wants to take them next. .
• There's no reason to get excited about .
• either of those two areas of the market right now. .
• All the focus is on the energy sector. .
• Then looking at silver miners, we're up on the week. .
• Again, nowhere near a new weekly buy signal. .
• Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
• It's It's going to be a rather exciting week. .
• We're coming in very overbought, and the market may want to take a break. .
• In a lot of cases, it might be buy the rumors, sell the news. .
• You may see some good earnings reports .
• coming out that will cause the market to sell off. .
• But again, we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll .
• take a deeper dive into the Canadian stock market. .
• Stock market. .