• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend. .
• com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are down across the board. .
• Not by a lot, but they're all pointing .
• lower, and we also have commodities trading lower right now, so that could put .
• extra pressure on the Canadian stock market. .
• Now, there's no economic numbers coming .
• out this morning, so we're not expecting any other pre-market volatility. .
• Now, last week was a jam-packed week. .
• We had Fed meeting, we had all kinds of .
• earnings and all kinds of economic reports, and that certainly added to a lot .
• of price volatility, especially in the commodity sector. .
• We'll take a look at that towards the end of the presentation. .
• Now, the VIX is still on a weekly sell signal. .
• That's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• We're still long term bullish on the overall stock market. .
• That would change this week if the VIX were to start to break out above 14. .
• 85. .
• Now, on the daily chart, we are short term .
• bearish on the market with the VIX currently on a buy signal. .
• The reason the VIX is elevated with the .
• stock market hitting all time new highs is for one particular reason. .
• We'll take a look at that in a minute. .
• We would go from being short term bearish .
• to short-term bullish on Monday if the VIX were to close below 13. .
• 27. .
• Now, we've watched the VIX move up towards 15. .
• 63 several times over the last month, .
• and you can see that that's at the top of the Fly Paper channel. .
• We're really looking for a breakout above .
• that level before the overall market is going to pay attention. .
• Now, options traders are .
• padding their accounts at the moment because of one particular reason, and it .
• certainly isn't meta, which made a historic move higher on Friday. .
• You probably will never see this again, .
• but a stock as big as Meta moving up over 20% in one day is a historic event. .
• If we move from a daily chart to the weekly Panic Zone chart, that's nothing .
• but panic buying and That may actually mark the top for the technology sector. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• Certainly no reason to abandon the technology stocks on Monday. .
• The reason options traders are concerned .
• is the big move down in the Regional Banking sector last week, down over 7%, .
• not enough to give us a weekly sell signal. .
• Certainly daily sell signals, but not a weekly sell signal. .
• The Regional Banks pulled down US banks, down 4. .
• 66%, and Canadian banks were also lower on the week. .
• Again, no sell signals here on the weekly charts for these sectors, .
• but we certainly saw a lot of daily sell signals in the banking sector last week. .
• Now, the TSX actually ended the week slightly lower. .
• Our next daily and weekly price target was .
• 21,250, and we actually hit that and traded slightly above it at 21,250. .
• 90 before pulling back. .
• Looking at the Dow, new closing high for the Dow. .
• Our next price target is 39,062. .
• For the S&P 500, this is the big one. .
• Our next price target is 5,000. .
• That's a big round number. .
• You'll probably remember where you were when the Nasdaq hit 5,000 and everybody on .
• Wall Street was wearing Nasdaq 5,000 baseball caps. .
• You'll probably see that this week as well. .
• And then looking at the Nasdaq 100 itself, our next price target was 17,500. .
• We traded and closed slightly above that, and have not broken away from that level. .
• So we're not heading towards 18,750 just yet. .
• Now, the Russell 2000 is a little bit of a concern. .
• We peaked six weeks ago on a bearish .
• reversal week and we have not been able to go back to that level. .
• And 2000 is back once again acting as resistance as it did throughout 2023. .
• Of course, we can focus on what happened .
• with Meta and the fact the major stock market indices hit new highs last week and .
• the fact that the S&P 500 is within a day's trading of hitting 5,000. .
• At the same time that was going on, there was a lot of stuff going on in the .
• background that normal stock market traders would notice. .
• Let's start off with bonds. .
• Of course, the bond market is much bigger than the stock market. .
• We saw money move up last week. .
• We saw bonds, the 10-year note, and I'm just using the .
• 10-year note because they all look pretty similar. .
• Buy signal on Tuesday, going into the Fed meeting, moved up, hit .
• close at the high of the day on the day of the Fed meeting, continued to move higher .
• on Thursday, heading towards the December high. .
• Of course, if bonds are moving up, bond yields are moving down. .
• And then look what happened on Friday. .
• Friday, we came down hard. .
• Bond yields came up sharply, and we were getting pretty close .
• to retesting the December lows and even breaking them. .
• And of course, breaking the December lows, .
• that would be bullish for the stock market. .
• If bond yields were heading down, bond yields heading down, put downward pressure .
• on interest rates, can help just about every business out .
• there if interest rates are dropping, but that's not how the Week ended. .
• Then looking at what happened in the world of commodities. .
• Copper. Look at what happened to copper. .
• Copper up into the Fed meeting, .
• made a new high for the week, and closed slightly lower on the day on .
• Wednesday, came down hard on Thursday, hard again on Friday. .
• And so that is a lower high, and That's not bullish for the copper market. .
• Certainly not bullish for copper stocks .
• with the Copper Miner's ETF ending the week on a sell signal. .
• Now, looking at the price of gold, on .
• Wednesday, we left the day on a buy signal. .
• On Thursday, we closed slightly higher. .
• Then Friday, we came right back down. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close below $2,040. .
• 20. That is certainly doable .
• as we are currently trading down over $10 in the pre-market this morning. .
• Now, looking at who's in control, you can see the pros were about to take control, .
• and that never actually ended up happening. .
• Things could change on Monday, but so far, .
• coming into Monday's trading action, gold is pointing lower. .
• Now, we had a big update in the gold .
• miners on Thursday left us with a buy signal. .
• Friday, we came in, we were opening sharply lower. .
• On Monday for the GDX, we're looking for a close below $27. .
• 93. .
• For the junior gold miners, we're just .
• nine cents away, looking for a close below $33. .
• 92. .
• Then looking at gold stocks on the TSX, we had a big up move on Thursday and then .
• opened sharply lower on Friday and looking for a close on Monday below $16. .
• 33 for the XGD. .
• Then moving on to the price of silver. .
• You can see on Thursday and Friday, pretty volatile days. .
• We traded on both sides of the channel. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close for the price of silver below $22. .
• 71. .
• And similar situation for the silver miners. .
• We traded down through the lower channel .
• line on Friday, still looking for a close below $25. .
• 36 for the SIL. .
• Moving on to the world of energy, and we saw big reversals here as well. .
• You can see on Monday, Crud Oil hit a new high for this move and .
• then pulled back the rest of the week, ending the week on a sell signal. .
• We were looking for a move up to 81. 25. .
• We couldn't do to that, and now we're .
• looking to see if support will hold at 7,188. .
• We're currently trading below that, so we could be heading towards 68. .
• 75 on Monday. .
• Looking at natural gas, no joy here. .
• Looking for a close above at $2. .
• 23 on Monday to give us a buy signal. .
• Our mathematical target to the downside is 1. .
• 95, but obviously, psychological support at $2 is holding us in check. .
• Then looking at energy stocks, you can see .
• the big down day we had on Thursday, we saw fall through the downside on Friday. .
• So Canadian energy stocks are back on a sell signal. .
• Looking at Wall Street, we had an inside day on Friday. .
• We saw earnings out from some major energy .
• stocks on Thursday and Friday helped hold up this particular ETF, unlike small caps, .
• which ended the week on a sell signal, so did the energy equipment makers and the .
• explorers all ending the week on a sell signal. .
• It was just some of those big cap US energy stocks, which are more global in .
• nature than most of the Canadian energy stocks. .
• Now, there's a couple of stocks that I'm currently following very closely. .
• First one is Boeing. .
• It continues to hold the $200 level. .
• I traded in the channel on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. .
• And so on Monday, we're looking for a close above $212. .
• 13 to give us a buy signal for Boeing. .
• Looking down, if we start breaking down below last week's lows, then 187. .
• 50 would be our next target to the downside. .
• I'm also watching Apple closely. .
• Currently, we're on a sell signal right now. .
• Had a wild day on Friday. .
• We still ended the day closing lower on .
• the day, but we ran down, actually traded below the 180 level for quickly reversing. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close above 191. .
• 02 to give us a buy signal for Apple. .
• Then looking at Tesla, remember, Apple is the most widely held stock in the world. .
• Tesla is the most traded stock in the world. .
• And You can see, if we go back to the .
• bottom of the open gap here, the top of that is 193. .
• The first sign something new would be happening is a close above that level. .
• We did trade above that level, but we haven't closed above it. .
• We ended Friday, even with Metta shooting through the sky. .
• We still closed down . .
• 95 cents on Friday. .
• Coming into Monday, we're looking for a close above $200. .
• 10 for Tesla. .
• If we take out the recent lows, then 171. .
• 88 That would be our next target to the downside. .
• Still clustering around 187. 50. .
• We closed at 187. .
• 91 on Friday. .
• Let's finish off today's presentation .
• looking at two widely held Canadian stocks starting off with BCE. .
• It wasn't that long ago that we were .
• looking at BCE potentially breaking out to higher highs. .
• Unfortunately, this stock has rolled over. .
• We were trying to get up to the 56. 25 level. .
• We failed at that a couple of months ago and got as high as 56. .
• 17. .
• It's always a good idea to put your orders in just below the price targets. .
• You can see that we're currently closing just above the 53. .
• 13 level. If we take out Friday's low, then 51. .
• 56 comes into play. .
• Then looking at the biggest bank in the .
• country, the Royal Bank has been doing nothing for a while now. .
• You can see the pros have given up control. .
• We're currently on a sell signal. .
• We've been in a tight trading range since .
• early December and I really don't know what's going on here. .
• Our current price target is 131. 25. .
• We closed at 131. .
• 22 on Friday. .
• You can see two lines down takes us back to 125. .
• That could be a potential target to the downside, but really, nobody's doing .
• anything with this stock at the moment, and that is a weird situation. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• Since I started the presentation, stock index futures have come back. .
• They're just slightly below fair value at the moment. .
• Unfortunately, gold has not changed direction. .
• It's still down about $12 at the time of this presentation. .
• Have a great day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .