• Good morning, everyone. .
• Welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. .
• In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. .
• We have stock index futures trading right around fair value. .
• Commodities are trading lower with both .
• gold and crude oil, down in the pre-market on Monday morning. .
• We have no major economic numbers coming out today, so it's all about people .
• getting over their hangovers from Sunday night's football game. .
• Now, last week, the S&P 500 was finally .
• able to close above 5,000, and did the week above that level. .
• Hasn't broken away from 5,000 just yet, but it's still looking very bullish. .
• Now, while the stock market is making all-time highs, you'd think the VIX would .
• be making all-time lows, but that is not the case. .
• We are still on a weekly sell signal here that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• That would change this coming Friday if we were to close above 14. .
• 80. Now, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, .
• we're still on a sell signal here that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• Things would change on Monday today if the VIX were to close above 13. .
• 88. .
• Now, if we stand back a bit, we can see that the VIX was able to head up over 15 .
• in January, and the market really didn't seem to be too concerned about that. .
• We did not have a major sell-off in January, so we're really looking for a .
• breakout above 15 to tell us that the market is really concerned about the .
• prospects for the stock market going forward. .
• Now, you may have seen or heard a headline .
• like this over the past week, and we are in a unique period for the stock market. .
• If we go back to October, we were looking for a seasonal low. .
• We are looking for a move up into a .
• Christmas rally, and then we weren't looking for much more than that. .
• The market has surprised everybody and .
• continued that Christmas rally into the new year. .
• Here we are halfway through February, and we're still making higher highs. .
• We haven't seen that in quite a while. .
• Here's the rally that they're talking about in 1972. .
• Now, we did not peak at that point in March of '72. .
• If we look at a monthly chart here, we actually peaked later in the year. .
• But once we peaked, we had a huge sell-off .
• over the next couple of years, and we lost about 50% of the market's value. .
• Now, I'm using a monthly chart here .
• because I just wanted to show you another historical event, and that was the fact .
• that it took 10 years to get back to where we were in late 1972. .
• That is also another piece of history that people may not be talking about. .
• It's one thing to talk about the major rally. .
• It's another thing to talk about the major decline that happened afterwards. .
• Now, a lot of people are talking about the .
• Dot Com Bubble and looking at a potential AI bubble that's going on right now. .
• And there are a lot of stocks doing really well at the moment. .
• There are a handful of mega cap stocks .
• that are also doing very well at the moment. .
• So we've got Meta, we've got Microsoft, and of course, we've got NVIDIA. .
• It's significant to watch these because they are huge, huge companies. .
• It's not the fact that we've got a lot of .
• companies doing well, it's that we've got these mega caps. .
• Now, a year ago, it would have been Apple and Tesla that we would have been focused .
• on, but they're not really in play in 2024. .
• Now, if we go back to 2000 and look at that dot com bubble. .
• Now, if NVIDIA is the backbone of the AI revolution, back in 2000, Cisco was the .
• backbone of the Internet revolution, and technically it still is. .
• All those data centers have Cisco equipment running them in the background. .
• Now, Cisco eventually became a .
• member of the Dow 30, so it is still a huge global company. .
• Back in 2000, it peaked at a little over .
• $80, and then over the next couple of years, it gave up everything. .
• You go from a $10 stock to an $80 stock, .
• you're doing pretty good, then you give it all up. .
• Then Akamai, probably the start of the cloud computing revolution. .
• This is a daily chart of Akamai. .
• It was an IPO. .
• I remember it coming out just like it was yesterday. .
• It got as high as $344. 87. .
• Then over the next couple of years, once the bubble burst, it gave up all of that .
• and basically became a penny stock before recovering. .
• Now, Yahoo, back in 2000, was the Google of its day, and it got as high as $125. .
• 03. And then over the next couple of years, .
• after the bubble burst, we gave up all that, and it got down under $5 eventually. .
• So history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rimes. .
• And so we could see a AI bubble burst at some point. .
• For that to happen, first of all, we need daily sell signals that turn into weekly .
• sell signals that turn into monthly sell signals. .
• That's when a bubble burst coming into Monday's trading action, We .
• don't have daily sell signal, so nothing really to worry about on Monday morning. .
• Now, looking at a weekly chart of the Dow .
• Diamond, so we made a new closing high last week. .
• A new closing high for the S&P 500 for the .
• Nasdaq 100, even though equal related Nasdaq made a new high, and the next .
• generation Nasdaq also made a new high last week. .
• Who didn't make a new high? .
• Well, iShares for the TSX-60 made a new .
• high on the previous week and then pulled back ever so slightly last week. .
• So No concern there. .
• We're still closing above the upper channel line. .
• Now, looking at the winners and losers for the week, it was the chip sector was the .
• big winner, followed by biotechs, pharmaceuticals, and then the .
• biggest winner in the Canadian market was the energy sector. .
• But as you can see, we're not expecting a weekly change in trend this week. .
• What didn't work? .
• Well, anything that you mine basically got hit hard last week. .
• Canadian gold stocks were the biggest .
• losers, followed by the GDX followed by silver miners, followed by copper miners. .
• So any ETF that was mining related, materials related, got hit hard last week. .
• So no change in trend there. .
• Now, looking at the world of commodities, .
• we had crude oil move up last week and it's still on a buy signal here. .
• No change in trend. .
• We saw gasoline move higher, up over nine % on the week. .
• At the same time, we had natural gas drop over 11 % on the week. .
• So no change in trend for either of those two. .
• The GLD pulled back. .
• It's still on a buy signal here. .
• Things would change this coming Friday if the GLD were to close below $185. .
• 84. .
• No joy for Palladium making a new low. .
• We saw platinum pull back. .
• We saw silver close slightly lower on the week. .
• No change in trend. .
• We're still on a sell signal for silver. .
• Now, somebody was asking me about .
• commodity ETFs, and I haven't really explored them too much. .
• We took a look at several that are on sell signals right now. .
• Then there's one that's on a buy signal at .
• the moment, and we were wondering what the differences were between those. .
• When you look at this particular ETF, so we're looking at the GSG, it says it's a .
• commodity ETF that doesn't actually own any commodities. .
• It looks like all it owns at the moment is treasury bills. .
• So that's a bit strange. .
• I'm not sure how that exactly works, but I certainly wouldn't want to be using that .
• to track the world of commodities at this time. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far, it looks like we're going to see a fairly quiet open on Monday. .
• Let's see if the S&P 500 can hold 5,000 throughout the week. .
• Have a great day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll .
• take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. .