• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend. .
• com I hope everyone had a wonderful long .
• weekend and you're all rested and ready to go. .
• In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and crude oil are trading .
• lower while gold is trading higher in the pre-market on Tuesday morning. .
• Now, there's a lot going on in the pre-market this morning. .
• One of the big headlines is Capital One is buying Discover. .
• Capital One, of course, is trading lower .
• this morning while Discover is trading higher in the pre-market. .
• Market. .
• Now, this week, we've got NVIDIA coming .
• out with earnings, and that could certainly shake the market. .
• We're also going to see the minutes from .
• the last Fed meeting that, again, could certainly disturb the market. .
• Now, looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, .
• we're entering what is seasonally a strong period for the VIX. .
• If we go back to 2023, you can see that we had a couple of weeks where we really .
• spiked before reversing and coming down again. .
• We're expecting that to happen once again in 2024. .
• Of course, the VIX spiking is negative for stocks. .
• We thought it started last Tuesday with a big spike in the VIX, but the market .
• pulled back going into the end of the week. .
• We're still long-term bullish on the .
• market as long as the VIX does not close above 15. .
• 02 this coming Friday. .
• Now, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see that spike on Tuesday, and .
• then we retreated on Wednesday, Thursday, and moved up a little on Friday. .
• But we're going to still be short term .
• bearish on the market as long as the VIX continues to close above 13. .
• 40 on Tuesday. .
• And you can see the lower trend line is starting to trend higher. .
• So if we don't close below 13. .
• 40 on Tuesday, then It'll be a higher level Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. .
• Now, last week we were talking about the .
• S&P 5,000, and we were able to break out above that and trade above it. .
• We ended the week .
• closing above it, but we're currently trading below that level level, .
• so it's not holding in the pre-market on Tuesday morning. .
• Now, once we broke through the S&P 500, 5, .
• 000 level, we were looking to see how long it would hold. .
• Unfortunately, it's not holding that long. .
• We are trading below that level in the pre-market. .
• And looking at the SPY ETF, we closed Friday just below the $500 level, and we .
• are trading lower in the pre-market this morning. .
• Now, looking at a daily chart of the Dow .
• Diamonds, we generated a sell signal on Tuesday. .
• That was the only major index to do so. .
• And then we came right back on Thursday, back on a buy signal. .
• So we're coming into this week with all .
• the major index ETFs on buy signals right now. .
• The first thing we look for in the weekly charts, if we're going to see a pullback .
• in the market as it closed below the previous week's low. .
• For the Dow, since the October low, we haven't had that happen. .
• For the S&P 500, we certainly did. .
• And for the Nasdaq 100, we also had a week where we closed below the previous week's .
• low, but we did not have any fall through to the downside. .
• So anytime there's a one bar event, whether you're looking at a daily or a .
• weekly chart, we're looking for a follow through in the same direction, and you can .
• see we had complete reversals to the upside. .
• So Again, it's the first thing you look for. .
• It isn't all you look for, but it's the .
• first sign that something is about to change, and then we look for confirmation. .
• So we are looking for a close below last .
• week's low this week to see if the market is ready to head lower. .
• Now, one bullish sign last week was a .
• lot of interest in mid-caps, small caps, and micro-caps. .
• You can see the Russell 2000 trading up to the previous high, and the Russell .
• micro-caps also trading up to the previous high. .
• Then looking at the Canadian market, the iShows for the TSX-60 had a wild week. .
• We traded down through the lower channel .
• line and then ended the week making a new high. .
• That was quite a wild week. .
• One stock that's in the news this morning that's in the TSX-60 is Loblaw. .
• They're out a big announcement, spending a lot of money, creating a lot of jobs. .
• Let's see how the market reacts to that news. .
• But as you can see, the stock is doing incredibly well at the moment. .
• Now, what worked last week was actually Canadian energy stocks were the big .
• winners, up over 4%, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal, but enough .
• to extend the daily buy signal that started recently. .
• We made a new high for this move and .
• started to break out above the high from a couple of weeks ago. .
• And we're stuck at the 200 and 100 day .
• moving averages, looking to see if we can break out above that this week. .
• US Energy stocks were also big winners, up 2. .
• 71% and back on a weekly buy signal. .
• Now, going through the Dow 30 this morning, I noticed there were three Dow 30 .
• stocks that generated weekly sell signals last week, including Apple, Amgen, and .
• Cisco, are all back on weekly sell signals. .
• Now, a couple of stocks that are not on weekly sell signals. .
• We've got Home Depot out with earnings, .
• and they beat expectations, but not making investors happy this morning. .
• And on the daily chart, we're looking at a new daily sell signal for Home Depot. .
• On the other hand, we've got Walmart out .
• with earnings, and Walmart is trading higher in the pre-market this morning. .
• So Walmart's winning, Home Depot is losing on Tuesday morning. .
• Now, Apple's back on a weekly sell signal, .
• and I just want to look at Apple for a minute. .
• We're looking at a daily chart here. .
• You can see we peaked back in December. .
• Then we drove down into year-end, and then .
• we made a higher low, and then started to move up. .
• Then we actually made a lower high, .
• and after that lower high, we made a lower low. .
• So that's a pattern that we want to break. .
• Unfortunately, in February, it looks like .
• we recently put in a lower high, and now we'll look to see if we can put in .
• a lower low and see if that pattern continues. .
• Now, there's a lot of support at the 181. .
• 25 level. .
• Yes, We did below it several times, but pulled back very quickly. .
• The 181. .
• 25 level is the high from back in October. .
• Now, if we look at when we started to trade above that level back in the start .
• of November, Most of the trading activity has been between 181. .
• 25 and 193. 75. .
• Yes, we traded above it, but the majority .
• of the trading activity has been between those two levels. .
• If we start breaking down and take out that recent low, then 175 and 168. .
• 75 do come into play. .
• So just be aware of that. .
• Let's finish off looking at the world of commodities. .
• Starting with the metals, we had a nice up week for copper. .
• Not enough to give us a buy signal, but copper stocks were up nicely. .
• Again, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal. .
• Gold finished the week on a sell signal. .
• It's reversing that in the pre-market this morning. .
• The GLD, on the other hand, did not generate a sell signal. .
• We need a close below 185. .
• 82 this coming Friday. .
• And then looking at gold stocks, we had .
• the GDX close slightly lower on the week after making a nice low last week. .
• We had a new low for the XGD and then close slightly lower on the week. .
• Similar situation for the junior gold miners. .
• The price of silver was up nicely last .
• week for both the Futures contract and for the SLV. .
• Unfortunately, silver miners ended the week lower on the week, so the interest in .
• silver miners needs to catch up with It might do that this week. .
• Then looking at crude oil, we're still on a buy signal here trading higher. .
• Unfortunately, natural gas was down another 10% and change. .
• Looking at the seasonality of natural gas, .
• this is a very weak period and the weakest period of the year. .
• As we get into March, we'll hopefully look for the seasonality to kick in and for .
• natural gas prices to start to move higher. .
• Energy stocks, as we mentioned, were up on the week. .
• Not enough to give us a weekly buy signal .
• in Canada, but we did get a weekly buy signal in the US. .
• Of course, energy stocks in the US, a lot .
• of them have a global presence, which the Canadian energy stocks do not. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far, it looks like we're going to see .
• some selling at the open on Tuesday morning. .
• Have a great day. .
• Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning. .
• And on Wednesday morning, we're going to .
• take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. .