• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend. .
• com In the pre-market this morning, stock .
• index futures and commodities are trading below fair value. .
• So so far, it looks like we're going to .
• see a little selling at the open on Monday morning. .
• Let's start off looking at a weekly chart .
• of the VIX, and the VIX is still on a sell signal. .
• That is supportive for higher stock prices on a long-term basis. .
• If we look at a daily chart of the VIX, again, we're still on a sell signal here. .
• And as long as we close below 14. .
• 42 on Monday, we will remain short term bullish on the market. .
• Now, on Friday, I was going to do a review of February, but unfortunately, I wasn't .
• feeling very well last week and couldn't do it. .
• So just looking at the charts from .
• February, you can see the S&P 500 was up over 5 %. .
• Looking at the seasonality chart, typically we peak in the middle of .
• February and then sell off into the middle of March. .
• We may or may not do that, but that's what the seasonality chart tells us to expect. .
• Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq was up again over 5 %, making a new high here. .
• Again, we're looking for a peak in the .
• middle of February and then selling into March. .
• So far, that certainly has not started and may not start. .
• Seasonality charts are no guarantee. .
• It's just an average of what happens at this time of the year. .
• Now, looking at the TSX, we are up 1. .
• 63% on the month. .
• And looking at the seasonality chart, we .
• usually get buying into the end of RRSP season, which ended last week, .
• and now we expect the market to sell off into the middle of March. .
• Again, that has not started. .
• Then looking at a seasonality chart of the .
• VIX, you can see the VIX Rockets sharply higher during the month of March. .
• Again, there's no guarantee that this is going to happen. .
• If we look at the chart over the last .
• year, you can see that we did spike at this time last year. .
• And then if we go back two years, Just the .
• whole first quarter, we saw the VIX being highly elevated, .
• getting up over 38 before coming back down into the month of April. .
• Now, stocks to watch, one that I'm watching closely right now is .
• New York Community Bank Corp, which gapped lower on Friday. .
• It's not something I'm going to trade or .
• ever look at investing, but the market is certainly concerned about it. .
• It's something to keep in the back of your mind that this could fall apart and .
• certainly cause a major pullback in the market. .
• Now, at one point last year, we were .
• talking about stocks making lower highs and lower lows, and Apple is starting to .
• do that now, and that is a bit of a concern. .
• You can see on a weekly chart of Apple, we made a new low for this move last week. .
• Looking at a daily chart, we're breaking down below the 200-day moving average. .
• We haven't broken away from it yet, but we are trading below it. .
• When We are trading down in the pre-market this morning. .
• So that is a concern for me. .
• Apple is a stock I watch closely. .
• It's the most widely held stock in the world. .
• And we are looking at the 181. .
• 25 level, and You can see we're starting .
• to break away from that heading towards the 175 level. .
• If things were to turn around on Monday, a close above $183. .
• 86 would give us a new buy signal for Apple. .
• So far, we're not expecting that to happen. .
• And if it doesn't happen on Monday, of .
• course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily. .
• Now, NVIDIA is still the stock to watch. .
• It made a new closing high on Friday. .
• It's important to remember that we've been through this before. .
• This is the AI bubble. .
• We did have a. .
• Com bubble, and NVIDIA looked like this going into the pop of the bubble, and then .
• after it burst, it was down over 90% from the high. .
• Just keep that in the back of your mind that these bubbles usually pop, .
• and when they pop, it's not usually very pretty on the way back down. .
• Certainly no sign of that starting on Monday morning. .
• Now, I always tell you to always be upgrading. .
• That's the only way you can keep up with the market. .
• That's why the major stock market indices continue to move higher over time. .
• You've probably heard the term buy and hold. .
• While buying and hold individual stocks is incredibly risky. .
• It's very hard to tell which stock is going to be successful? .
• And of course, we can always look back .
• in time and see what would have been the right move. .
• But what you don't see when you look back in time is all the stocks that are gone. .
• And I always tell the story about IBM back in the '50s. .
• Yes, it would have been a great investment to buy IBM in 1954. .
• But would you have done that? .
• I mean, there were other computer companies at that time competing with IBM. .
• On average, you probably didn't pick IBM. .
• You would have picked something else which isn't around anymore. .
• You need to always be upgrading the stocks .
• in your portfolio to make sure that they are leading. .
• And so the S&P 500 has decided to kick a couple of stocks out. .
• They're kicking out Whirlpool and Zion's Bank. .
• Those are coming out of the S&P 500. .
• And what's going in? .
• Well, Deckers is going in, and Super Micro Computer is also going in. .
• Now, Super Micro is part of the AI bubble, .
• and it has gone from $100 to $1,000 in less than a year. .
• Now, looking at earnings this week, Costco .
• is the one that I'm watching closely, and it hit our next price target last week of .
• 750, which is both a daily and a weekly price target. .
• The pros have been in control since early November. .
• We're coming in on Monday on a buy signal. .
• Things would change on Monday if Costco were to close below $732. .
• 22. .
• Now, we're almost done here. .
• Looking at the commodities, we had the energy sector up last week. .
• Energy stocks in the US were up 1. 37%. .
• In Canada, they were up over 5%. .
• That's a lot to do with one stock. .
• Then gold miners were up on the week. .
• No change on a weekly basis, but we do have new daily buy signals. .
• We ran into this situation a month ago. .
• The signal only lasted a day. .
• Hopefully, it will last much longer than that this time. .
• Let's finish off just noting that a sell .
• signal is not necessarily a sell signal for everyone. .
• In this presentation on a daily basis, .
• we're looking at the Daily Right Side Chart, which is a short term trading tool, .
• and it's really designed for swing traders. .
• On Monday, we're looking for a close below $432. .
• 87. .
• Now, if you're not a swing trader, you're .
• going to need more evidence that the market is changing .
• direction, and on Monday, We're looking for a close below $423. .
• If you're a long-term investor and you're .
• not checking the charts daily, you're going to need a close below $412. .
• 26 this coming Friday. .
• If you're a long term investor and really don't want to trade the market at all, .
• then you're going to be waiting for a close below $400 before you jump ship. .
• If we were to get down below $400, that .
• would certainly be the sign that we are entering a bear market. .
• And none of those have happened yet, but .
• the first one we're going to react to, of course, is the right side chart. .
• And then over time, we're going to need these other ones to start to fall before .
• we get overly concerned about the health of the market. .
• And none of that has happened so far. .
• When it does happen, when we get our .
• initial sell signal in the Nasdaq or the other major indices, that's going .
• to be a short term sell signal, and it's not going to be for everyone. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• We are for a little selling at the open on Monday morning. .
• Not enough to do any major damage from what's happening in the pre-market this .
• morning, but we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Have a great day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. .