• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com. In the pre-market this morning, stock .
• index futures are trading above fair value, being led higher by the Nasdaq. .
• While commodities are mixed, crude oil is .
• higher, while gold is slightly lower on Monday morning. .
• Now, between now and when the market .
• opens, there's no economic numbers coming out to throw the market off. .
• Now, in today's presentation, we're going .
• to be focused on weekly charts, so this is a longer term look at the market. .
• Of course, we posted daily charts on the weekend. .
• If you're a subscriber, of course, you've .
• been in and looked at your daily charts in this presentation. .
• We're going to be catching up on all the weekly charts. .
• Starting off with the VIX, the The VIX .
• traded above the upper channel line last week but did not close above it. .
• We're going to remain long term bullish on .
• the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15. .
• 35 this coming Friday. .
• Now, we do have a Fed meeting this week, .
• and so the It may want to pause a bit before. .
• Some of the charts certainly look like the market paused last week ahead of this Fed .
• meeting, so we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Of course, the meeting starts on Tuesday, .
• ends on Wednesday, and Wednesday afternoon is when all the fun starts. .
• Now, starting off looking at the Dow Diamonds. .
• We've got an early warning signal up there .
• at the top of the screen, and we've been stuck at resistance for the .
• last month, and we've traded down to the upper chain line for the past two weeks. .
• You can see the Chevron at the bottom of the screen indicating a potential top, .
• and we still have four blue dots there, and so we are still in an uptrend. .
• That has not broken. .
• Things would change this coming Friday if the Dow Diamonds were to close below $379. .
• 01. Now, the Chevron at the bottom of the .
• screen will fade away if the market wants to continue to move higher from here. .
• It's important to remember that just .
• because you get a Chevron, That does not mean it has been confirmed. .
• It will fade away if it is not confirmed over the next couple of weeks. .
• Now, the Dow is a little weaker than the other major indices, and the reason for .
• that, of course, is Boeing, which is the biggest loser in the Dow in 2024. .
• It is trading slightly lower in the .
• pre-market this morning, still holding the 180 level. .
• You can see that if we start taking out the lows from late 2023, that we may have .
• to go back to the lows of late 2022 to find major support. .
• Looking at the SPY, again, we've got that .
• early warning signal up there at the top of the screen. .
• It was actually an inside week for the S&P 500. .
• Yes, we have a Chevron at the bottom of the screen. .
• We're still showing four blue dots, so nothing to worry about so far. .
• The Nasdaq, a little more to worry about. .
• It was down over 1% on the week and .
• actually closed below the previous week's low. .
• Now, it is certainly trading higher in the pre-market this morning, so there's no .
• enthusiasm to run out of the Nasdaq coming into Monday's trading action. .
• We would need to close this coming Friday below $419. .
• 01. .
• And from what we're seeing so far, I'm not expecting that to happen this week. .
• Now, we did talk about the SOX index and the 5,000 level. .
• And of course, anytime you're coming up to .
• big round numbers, you have to anticipate that there could be potential resistance. .
• We saw that in the S&P 500, which is .
• traded above 5,000 and is still holding that level. .
• The SOX index, on the other hand, traded .
• through the 5,000 level on the previous week and did not hold it. .
• So we did not close above 5,000, and now we're coming back down. .
• We do not have an early warning signal, .
• and The reason for that is we actually didn't close up there. .
• We certainly thrusted higher, but did not close up at the top of the range there. .
• So we don't have an early warning signal so far. .
• We did close down below the previous week's low. .
• That, This, of course, is bearish, .
• but we're still showing four blue dots at the bottom. .
• And of course, we do have the Chevron indicating a potential top here. .
• So still waiting for more action to the downside. .
• Nvidia is still holding up very well. .
• It actually closed higher on the week last week, up $3. .
• 09 for the week, having an inside week or a week of indecision for NVIDIA. .
• And certainly, I'd be more concerned if NVIDIA closed below the previous week's .
• low, and we'll just have to see how this week turns out. .
• Now, so far in 2024, what's not working in the US market is the Regional Banks. .
• They're down on the year. .
• People are noting the fact that, hey, we put in a higher low and a higher high. .
• Their overall long term trend could be higher. .
• We're on a weekly sell signal right now, but a lot of traders and investors are .
• watching that to see if that continues to develop over time. .
• And certainly the next thing that we need .
• to see happen is to take out the high from late 2023. .
• Now, looking at the Canadian market and .
• starting off with the iShares for the TSX-60, we're still projecting higher .
• prices here, and you can see that we're heading to the highs from 2022. .
• Looking at the I shares for the TSX-60, we .
• made a new closing high for this move last week. .
• Certainly no Chevron, no red dots down here. .
• Everything is still looking very bullish. .
• That, of course, is on the back of the .
• energy sector continuing to move higher here. .
• Now, we are still stuck at the previous highs. .
• We did not break away from the 17. .
• 19 level, and I'm looking at the iShares for the energy sector, the XEGs. .
• Our next mathematical target is 18. .
• 75, which we got to back in 2022. .
• If we can start making our way out above the late '22 and late 2023 highs, then 18. .
• 75 certainly comes into play. .
• Looking at the weekly rightside chart, .
• this This trend only started four weeks ago. .
• There was the weekly buy signal, and we've .
• moved up since then back to the previous highs. .
• Then what else is working in 2024? .
• Well, it's the tech sector and looking at the XIT ETF. .
• We've been on a run. .
• We are still projecting higher prices .
• here, but we've been stuck at resistance at 56. .
• 25. If we can take that out, then 62. .
• 50 would be our next target to the upside. .
• It was an inside week, very quiet week for tech stocks. .
• Last week, we're looking for a close this coming Friday below $52. .
• 83. .
• Now, you've often heard me say that Shopify is the big elephant in the room. .
• And when you look at the market cap of the .
• major Canadian tech stocks, you can see just how big Shopify is. .
• Of course, Blackberry is a household name, .
• but Shopify is actually 66 times bigger than Blackberry. .
• So if Blackberry were to double in price, .
• if it were to go from the $4 area to the $8 area, that would be 100 % gain. .
• But when it comes to market cap, that would barely show up as a major change. .
• And so we're We're not expecting stock .
• like BlackBerry to really shift the direction of the market. .
• The index itself, the XIT ETF, will continue to look very similar to Shopify. .
• Shopify is the big like an elephant in the .
• room, and the way that it moves is the way that the index and the sector moves. .
• Right now, we're looking at a stock that .
• has been treading water for the last month. .
• We have three red dots down here. .
• We've had those for the last two weeks. .
• We had a Chevron develope about a month ago, and we're still holding the trend. .
• It hasn't broken down. .
• We're looking for a close this coming Friday below $100. .
• 95 to give us a new weekly sell signal for Shopify. .
• Now, what's been really working in 2024 is .
• Celestica, which made a new high on the previous week. .
• And last week, we actually moved down and closed below the previous week's low. .
• So there's certainly a potential for a top for Celestica at this time. .
• Now, Bitcoin and Ethereum were in the news last week for making new highs. .
• Both of them pulled back and closed lower on the week. .
• So we'll have to see if that trend to the downside continues this week. .
• Then looking at the bond market, things are fairly quiet. .
• The TLT, the XBB, both treading water here, going into the Fed meeting. .
• It's still our risk on world, and that's good for the stock market that investors .
• are willing to buy bonds in the emerging markets and junk bonds. .
• You can see when the junk bonds bottomed .
• last fall with the stock market and then headed up with the stock market. .
• We'll keep an eye on the emerging market .
• and junk bonds to see if they continue on their weekly trend. .
• Then finishing off looking at the world of commodities. .
• Copper was up sharply last week, nearly 6% on the week. .
• That helped a lot of mining stocks. .
• We saw a pullback in gold after making a .
• new high the previous week, so a fairly quiet trading for gold last week. .
• Silver, on the other hand, continued to move higher, up over 3% on the week. .
• Then looking at the elephant in the room, which is crude oil. .
• Crude oil traded up to 81. .
• 25 and has stopped. .
• We're looking to see if We can get over .
• that level, and our next target would be 87. .
• 50. .
• And unfortunately, no joy for natural gas, down nearly 7% on the week. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• As you can see from the weekly charts, we've got No major trend changes to be .
• concerned about coming into Monday's trading action. .
• And of course, that could change. .
• The market could be on pause coming into a .
• Fed meeting, waiting to see what the Fed does, what they say. .
• Of Of course, we'll find that out on Wednesday afternoon. .
• And this coming Friday could look a lot different than last Friday. .
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• Enjoy the rest of your day, folks. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll .
• take a closer look at the Canadian stock market. .