• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend. .
• com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. .
• Stock index futures and commodities are trading right around fair value. .
• It is a Fed day, so of course, we're .
• expecting volatility to expand after 2:00 PM this afternoon. .
• Now, the VIX is on a sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices. .
• There's quite a divergence between the VIX .
• itself and the overall stock market, whether you're looking at the S&P 500 or .
• the TSX, They've been making higher highs in 2024. .
• You think the VIX would be making lower .
• lows, but we've been creeping up here making higher lows and higher highs. .
• So options traders are a bit nervous at .
• this time and not as bullish as the overall stock market. .
• So at some point that may resolve and the VIX could continue to move lower, but you .
• would have to expect that the stock market wants to take a break here and pull back .
• at some point in the not so distant future. .
• Now, Bitcoin is back on a sell signal as .
• of Tuesday's close, joining Ethereum already on a sell signal. .
• Looking at Intel this morning, it's in the news. .
• It's trading higher on news that it's partnering with the US government. .
• So far, it's not up enough to give us a .
• buy signal, but that could change by the end of the day. .
• Of course, there's a huge disconnect .
• between what's been happening with Intel and what's been happening with NVIDIA. .
• NVIDIA traded down to the lower channel line yesterday before recovering, .
• so it closed below yesterday's low would give us a new sell signal on Wednesday. .
• Now, with the Fed meeting, you would .
• expect the volatility in the bond market this afternoon. .
• The TLT and the XBB are both still on sell signals. .
• The XBB moved up yesterday on news from the Canadian Central Bank. .
• Now, currencies could also be volatile this afternoon. .
• We've had the US dollar index .
• moving higher over the last week, and correspondingly, the Euro, Canadian .
• dollar, Australian dollar all moving down over the last few days. .
• Now, looking at the world of mining, we're starting off with copper. .
• Copper looks like it peaked on Monday, pulled back on Tuesday. .
• So that certainly looks like a potential .
• top as we closed below the previous day's low. .
• The pros are starting to give up control. .
• They certainly haven't done so. .
• When you're looking at a chart, for example, for the price of copper, you're .
• not going to see a lot of the public ever taking control. .
• There's very few individual copper traders in the copper market. .
• It's usually big institutions or global companies. .
• Now, looking at the Copper Miners ETF, .
• again, it looks like we may have put in a top here. .
• We made a new high on Monday, pulled back .
• on Tuesday, and we'll have to see if we keep going from here. .
• Obviously, you've had some opportunities .
• to take some money off the table as this ETF has been moving higher. .
• Now, broadly enough, some of the biggest mining companies in the world really .
• haven't taken advantage of rising commodity prices, and that Maybe because .
• they're overly hedged and a short term upward movement in, say, .
• the price of copper isn't going to help the BHP or Rio Tinto or Vale, both are up .
• over the past couple of days, but certainly have not been moving in sync .
• with both copper and gold and silver over the past few weeks. .
• Now, Southern Copper looks like it topped on Monday and pulled back on Tuesday. .
• It looks like First Quantum made a high on Friday and has started to pull back. .
• And it looks like Teck peaked in the .
• middle of last week and has started to pull back. .
• Again, we don't have any sell signals coming into Wednesday's trading action, .
• but certainly it looks like this sector of the market may have topped. .
• Looking at the price of gold, We've been .
• in the channel for the past couple of days. .
• A close on Wednesday below $2,164. .
• 40 would give us a new sell signal for the futures contract. .
• For the GLD, we're looking for a close on Wednesday below $198. .
• 34. .
• We've had several opportunities to take money off the table at $193. .
• 75 and then up at 200. .
• As you can see, 200 being a big round .
• number, the GLD has been clustering around it over the past few days. .
• Now, looking at gold miners themselves, .
• the gold miners ETF has given us a couple of early warning signals up here. .
• We actually traded up to the open gap, and the top of that open gap was at $30. .
• 50, and we traded as high as $30. .
• 49 before we started to pull back. .
• Now, the GDX is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
• For the junior miners, we're still looking for a close below $35. .
• 39 on Wednesday. .
• Looking at the TSX at the XGD, we need a close on Wednesday below $16. .
• 83. We closed at $16. .
• 87 on Tuesday. .
• And looking at the leveraged ETFs, the 2X .
• in the US, on a sell signal while the bear ETF is still on a sell signal. .
• So we're looking for a close on Wednesday above $11. .
• 30. .
• And then looking at the 2X ETFs on the TSX, still looking for a close below $12. .
• 07 on Tuesday for For the Bull ETF, for .
• the Bear ETF, we're looking for a close above $5. .
• 73. .
• Now, looking at individual stocks, Barrick rolled over yesterday. .
• It is back on a sell signal. .
• Agnico Eagle was the big winner for this move, and we're for a close below $72. .
• 77 on Wednesday to give us a sell signal. .
• We've got B2Gold back on a sell signal. .
• So this is the time and place we should .
• evaluate which gold stocks you're following. .
• Some of them moved up with the price of gold with the index and the ETFs .
• themselves, and some of them were left far behind. .
• And so you may want to upgrade the gold stocks that you're following at this time. .
• Now, looking at the price of silver, it .
• looks like it peaked on Friday and it's starting to pull back. .
• We're still above the upper channel line, .
• so not overly worried coming into Wednesday's trading action. .
• Then looking at the SLV, it looks like it .
• peaked on Friday, and just like the price of copper, it's been coming down. .
• We're still above the upper channel line. .
• So yes, on Wednesday, we're looking for a close below $22. .
• 22 to give us a daily sell signal. .
• Not expecting that to happen on Wednesday. .
• And if it doesn't, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily. .
• Now, looking at the Silver Miners ETF, we pulled back in the channel yesterday. .
• We need a close on Wednesday below $25. 23. .
• Then looking at some individual stocks, Pan American Silver in New York, we're .
• looking for a close on Wednesday below $13. .
• 67. We closed at $13. .
• 70 yesterday. .
• Then on the TSX, we're looking for a close below $18. .
• 50. .
• Then looking at Wheaton, Wheaton is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close. .
• Then looking at First Majestic, we need a close on Wednesday below $7. .
• 01 to give us a new daily sell signal. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation. .
• It certainly looks like the mining stocks have topped and are starting to roll over. .
• We do have some sell signals, but we don't .
• have all sell signals coming into Wednesday's trading action. .
• Looking for volatility to expand this afternoon after 2:00 PM. .
• Then we'll be back on Thursday morning to .
• look at how the market reacted to what the Fed It does on Wednesday afternoon. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• And again, next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning. .
• Thursday morning. .