• Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend. .
• com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet. .
• There's no major economic numbers coming out this morning. .
• There's some individual stock news. .
• We'll get to that in a couple of minutes. .
• We do have gold trading down $15 to $20, depending on when you blink. .
• Looking at the VIX, you can see the VIX made a new low for this move on Thursday, .
• and then basically clawed its way back to almost unchanged on the day. .
• The VIX is still on a daily sell signal. .
• That's positive for short-term market outlook. .
• If we look at some weekly charts that I just created this morning, they're not on .
• the website, but I just wanted to see how the week was progressing into the weekend. .
• The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal, .
• so that's supportive for a long term positive movement in the stock market. .
• Remember, back here in October is when we got our weekly sell signal, and from that .
• point on, the stock market has been moving higher. .
• Now, there's the S&P making a new high up over 2%. .
• We've got the Nasdaq 100 up 2. 75%. .
• We've got the TSX 60 making a new high up over 1% on the week. .
• Then looking at crude oil, and crude oil is still positive for the week, but giving .
• up a lot of its gains, so it's starting to pull back a bit. .
• Not a major concern so far. .
• We're not near a daily sell signal coming .
• into Friday's trading action, so not overly concerned. .
• Now, the price of gold is up $23 and change on the week. .
• It's giving up $16 to $20 in the pre-market this morning, .
• so we may actually end the week flat for the price of gold. .
• Now, there's a couple of stocks in the news. .
• We talked about Apple yesterday having .
• some potential legal problems, and it turned out that that's what happened. .
• And Apple rolled over yesterday and is .
• back on a daily sell signal trading up a couple of pennies in the pre-market. .
• Now, Tesla is down over 3% in the pre-market. .
• It's coming into Friday's trading action already on sell signal. .
• It was looking like we were about to get a .
• buy signal, but that's certainly not going to happen on Friday morning as we are .
• trading down below the lower channel line once again. .
• Now, I talked about the potential top in .
• the mining sector the other day, and I may have been off by one day. .
• Yesterday, the mining stocks moved higher and then reversed, .
• and we've got bearish reversal signals, whether you're looking at the XGD on .
• Toronto or the GDX or the GDXJ or the SIL, Silver Miners ETF. .
• They all put in bearish reversal signals yesterday. .
• Now, we're looking to see if we get fall through to the downside today. .
• With the commodities trading lower this morning, that may turn out to be true. .
• So instead of Wednesday being the top, .
• Thursday may have turned out to be the top for the mining sector. .
• Energy stocks are still doing really well. .
• If you haven't already done so, it's .
• probably a good idea to lock in some profits. .
• Certainly, you don't want to We're going to totally liquidate a position here, but .
• when we start off and look at the commodities, they're still doing okay. .
• Crude oil put in a high the other day and it's starting to pull back. .
• On Friday on the USO, we would need to close below $75. .
• 30 33 cents. .
• So far, crude oil is trading slightly higher in the pre-market. .
• Gasolines pulled back over the past couple of days, so no change there. .
• Natural gas, unfortunately, still on a sell signal. .
• That's pretty well the norm for natural gas. .
• We may have put in a higher low over the past week, and that could .
• certainly turn out to be a bullish sign going forward. .
• Of course, the next thing we want to see .
• is a higher high, and we're certainly not going to see that on Friday morning. .
• Now, looking at the major US energy ETFs, .
• the iShares Global Energy hit a new high yesterday. .
• Then a new high for the XLE. .
• Then if you're looking at the equipment makers, we saw a new high yesterday. .
• The Explorers put a new high, and .
• small-cap energy stocks also put in a new high on Thursday. .
• Now, when we look at the individual .
• stocks, and I'm going to measure what they've done over the last month, not from .
• the last buy signal on each individual stock, it's easier to do it this way. .
• Valero has been the big winner, followed .
• by Marathon Petroleum, followed by Baker Hughes. .
• Now, Baker Hughes is still negative for .
• the year, but up a little over 15% for the month. .
• Then we've got Marathon Oil up over 15%, Targa up over 13%, and then Chevron not .
• doing well over the last month, is certainly still up on the year, but it's .
• underperformed the rest of the US energy sector. .
• Now, moving on to the Canadian energy sector. .
• When we look at the XEG, we're up a little over 11% for the month. .
• Of course, the 2X Horizons Beta Pro .
• product should be up approximately twice that, and that is certainly the case. .
• It's up at just under 22% for the month. .
• Now, looking at individual stocks, Meg Energy has been the big winner, followed .
• by Headwater, followed by Enterplus, then we've got Canadian Natural Resources. .
• Now, this is the big elephant in the room. .
• When we look at the market cap of Canadian energy stocks, you can see the Canadian .
• Natural Resources is a little less than twice the value of Suncor, certainly more .
• than twice the value of Imperial Oil and Cenovus. .
• Then the stocks That's where we have a lot of things that traders like to trade most .
• are certainly much smaller in market weight. .
• When Canadian Natural Resources moves, .
• that can move the TSX-60 and certainly move the TSX. .
• Then we've got Tamarack, followed by Crescent Point, followed by Whitecap. .
• Then a couple of stocks did not do well over the last month. .
• Paramount Resources obviously has some stock-specific problems. .
• Then we've got Birchcliff, which is certainly a very popular tradable stock. .
• It is still on a sell signal Here's our .
• final here, and that would change on Friday with a close above $5. .
• 50. .
• In summary here, all of these energy stocks and ETFs are very overbought. .
• Remember, we look for low-risk buying .
• opportunities off the bottom of the Panic Zones with the Pressure Zone forming, and .
• then we've moved all the way up to the top of the Panic Zones here. .
• We're currently ranked at 10. .
• That's also true for an ETF such as the XLE. .
• This is not the time and place you want to add new money to the energy sector. .
• This is the time and place where you want .
• to lock in profits without completely liquidating your position. .
• And certainly, if anybody's interested in .
• buying energy stocks, this is not the time and place to do so. .
• Every couple of months, you get a low-risk .
• buying opportunity, and that is certainly not the case right now. .
• Just enjoy it while it's happening, and it might be over fairly soon. .
• Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation. .
• So far, it looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open, except .
• maybe in the mining sector, where we may see some downward pressure. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend. .
• Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning. .