• Hello everyone. .
• It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend. .
• com with this weekend's look at Canadian Stock Market Trends. .
• Now, we're going to be taking a big .
• picture look at the Canadian Stock Market, and we're going to be using weekly charts. .
• There's going to be a couple of daily charts, but for the most part, this .
• presentation is going to be full of weekly charts. .
• Now, if you're a long term investor, you .
• should probably ignore what happens from Monday to Friday and look for bigger trend .
• changes to happen before you start moving your money in and out of the market. .
• Now, the first thing I always look at when .
• I'm looking at the market is I want to filter out all the news, economic reports, .
• earnings reports, and I want to see how options traders feel about the market. .
• Now, the majority of options that are .
• traded at the options exchanges in Chicago are used for hedging purposes. .
• That means portfolio protection. .
• When options traders get nervous about the market, they bid up the price of options, .
• and that It tells us when there's fear in the market and there's no fear. .
• If you were with us last fall, we went through six weeks of fear leading into the .
• October lows, which gave us eventually the year-end rally. .
• Looking at a weekly as part of the VIX, I want to remain long term bullish on the .
• market unless the VIX were to close above 15. .
• 36 this coming Friday. .
• Now, if you're a short term trader coming .
• into Monday's trading action, you can see that the VIX is on sell signal right now. .
• That is supportive for higher stock prices. .
• And so on Monday, we would .
• remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 14. .
• 54 on Monday. .
• Now, The upper channel line is crawling down. .
• So if that doesn't happen on Monday, that .
• number is going to continue to decrease throughout the week until at some point in .
• the future, the VIX gets back on a buy signal, which, of .
• course, would be short term bearish for the market. .
• Now, once we've checked the fear index or the VIX, we can move on to the major US .
• stock market indices and see how they finish the week. .
• And it was a pretty bullish week for the S&P 500, up a little over two and a .
• quarter %, while the Nasdaq was up nearly 3% on the week for a new closing high. .
• Things are looking pretty bullish for the US market. .
• Now, you may not have seen these charts. .
• I've shown them several times over the .
• past couple of months, but these are seasonality charts from equity clock. .
• You can see what we were expecting to .
• happen was a peak in February for the S&P 500, and then some selling into March, .
• and then April should be a fairly bullish month. .
• That's also true for the Nasdaq. .
• It's also true for the TSX. .
• And of course, the opposite is true for the VIX. .
• We were expecting a huge move up in the VIX. .
• We did have that in March of last year, but so far it hasn't happened. .
• Now, seasonality Seasonality charts, of .
• course, are an average of what has happened over time. .
• Some seasonality charts include 20 years of data, some 30, 40, 50 years of data. .
• So there's no guarantee that it's going to happen. .
• Now, the markets are currently very overbought, .
• and a lot of people are looking for a pullback to start at some point. .
• So what should have happened, according to .
• the seasonality charts, what should have happened in March may shift over to April, .
• but we have absolutely no sign of that coming into Monday's trading action. .
• Well, now that we know that options traders in Chicago are still bullish, and .
• we know that stock traders in New York are still bullish, there's no reason that we .
• can't be bullish on the Canadian stock market. .
• Now, as we come into this week's trading action, most of the major Canadian indices .
• are overbought, and they're up at the top of the range. .
• I am not looking for low-risk buying opportunities. .
• Looking at this panic zone chart for the TSX, you can see last time we had a .
• pressure zone, and we were down at the bottom of the Panic Zones. .
• That's when we look for a low-risk buying opportunity. .
• Now, what we're looking for is selling opportunities up here. .
• And what I'm going to do, .
• if you weren't looking over my shoulder right now, here's what I would do. .
• I would bring up the list of all the major .
• Canadian indices, and I would just go like this. .
• What I'm doing is I'm just scanning .
• through, and I am looking for a new early warning signal, and there's consumer .
• staples with a new early warning signal, down a little over 1%, consumer staples, .
• not the most volatile index, but that's one that I would be concerned about. .
• Then as we continue to just scan down, we're not seeing anything new. .
• No early warning signals. .
• There's the industrials making a new high. .
• We've had several early warning signals over the past couple of months for the .
• tech sector, and not really a lot of pullback. .
• So we're up at the top of the Panic Zones here. .
• We're projecting lower prices. .
• That hasn't started yet. .
• So then we get to materials, which was .
• down on the week, but no early warning signal. .
• Then we've got real estate. .
• Then we've got telecom stocks. .
• And you can see the last time we had an early warning signal was here. .
• It's an early warning signal until it's .
• confirmed, and of course, it ended up getting confirmed. .
• And now we're looking to see if we can hold the 2023 lows for the telecom sector. .
• And then last up, utilities. .
• So only one new early warning signal to be concerned about. .
• Now, after going through the weekly Panic .
• Zone charts, I'm going to move on to the weekly Right Side charts. .
• And again, we only had one new early warning signal from the Panic Zones chart, .
• so there's not a lot to be concerned about. .
• If we start hitting the down arrow key .
• from the TSX to the TSX 60 to mid-caps, small caps, .
• and unfortunately, microcaps not really keeping up. .
• We did deep dip through the lower channel line this week, but we didn't close below .
• it, so we are still on a weekly buy signal, putting in a peak a couple of .
• weeks ago, and we'll have to see if the market can hold last week's low. .
• Then looking at the sectors, we've got .
• clean technology stocks on a weekly sell signal, no change there. .
• No change for consumer discretionary. .
• Consumer staples pulled back, closing .
• above the upper channel line, so not overly concerned just yet. .
• Then energy stocks making a new high this .
• week, and congratulations to everybody who got into energy stocks. .
• Then looking at financials, financial is .
• doing well, bank is doing well, no change in trend there. .
• A small pullback for the gold sector. .
• Potential top for the gold stocks, for mining stocks in general this week. .
• We'll just have to keep an Buy on them. .
• There's certainly some new daily sell .
• signals, but really haven't seen fall through to the downside just yet. .
• That could change on Monday. .
• Then looking at income trust, no change there. .
• Health care was up over 10% on the week. .
• That had a lot to do with a marijuana stock. .
• There's only a handful of stocks in the .
• health care sector, so not really a sector I follow that closely. .
• Global mining, still on a buy signal here. .
• You can see we put in a new high and then .
• pulled back, still above the upper channel line, so not concerned. .
• I'm not concerned about base metals. .
• New high for industrials, and industrials have certainly helped, .
• along with the Infotec sector, keep the Canadian market afloat in 2024. .
• There's Infotec still of closing above the .
• upper channel line, so no concern coming into this week's action. .
• Then looking at the materials, we were down slightly on the week. .
• So again, mining stocks may have put in a high last week. .
• It could be a short term high that does not end up really directly affecting the .
• weekly charts, but the only time will tell. .
• Then real estate, been trading in the channel for the past couple of weeks. .
• So a close below 305. .
• 46 this coming Friday would give us a new .
• weekly sell signal for the Canadian real estate sector. .
• Then, of course, you would want to look at individual real estate stocks and see if .
• your corresponding stocks actually received a sell signal with the index. .
• The index, of course, is made up of a whole bunch of stocks, and not all of them .
• will generate sell signals at the same time. .
• Then moving on from real estate, we're looking at telecom. .
• Telecom has been on a sell signal for a .
• while now, looking to see if we can hold the lows from late 2023. .
• And then last up, utilities. .
• Utilities still on a sell signal here. .
• That could change this week with a close above 279. .
• 43. .
• Again, we'll just have to wait and see. .
• Okay, folks, let's finish off today's .
• presentation taking a look at commodity prices for the week. .
• And we had a big reversal in the price of copper closing down on the week. .
• It didn't close below the previous week's .
• low, but certainly enough to give us a bearish reversal week. .
• So a potential top for copper. .
• Gold, on the other hand, basically closed .
• where it opened on the week, so no change at all from the previous week. .
• It was down a $1. 47 on the week after making a new high, .
• running up to the 2250 level and then starting to pull back. .
• Silver, on the other hand, did drop over 2% on the week, so making a new high for .
• this move, then rolling over, that gives us a bearish reversal signal. .
• So potential tops for both copper, gold, and silver last week, and we'll have to .
• see if we get continued selling into this week. .
• Now, looking at the energy sector, Crudol .
• lost all of its gains, ending the week just up five cents on the week. .
• So we were trying to break out above 81. .
• 25. .
• We did trade above it during the week, but .
• we did not close above it, so no joy there. .
• If we had have closed above 81. .
• 25, then we'd be talking about 87. .
• 50, but that is not the case going into Monday's trading action. .
• Our last chart of the day is natural gas. .
• It was up a little over 1% on the week, .
• but certainly no change in trend for natural gas. .
• Everything's still red down here. .
• There is a chevron indicating a possible bottom, but until these dots start turning .
• blue, we're really not going to get overly bullish on natural gas. .
• Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation. .
• The stocks still look very bullish. .
• We are coming into month-end. .
• We're also coming into a long weekend. .
• Which is usually bullish. .
• So not overly concerned about stocks, but .
• commodities, on the other hand, to see gold run up and make a new high and .
• then lose it all going into the end of the week, to see Crudol make a new high for .
• this move and then give it up all going into the end of the week. .
• That's not a very bullish picture for those commodities. .
• So let's see how things turn out this week. .
• But coming into a long weekend, coming .
• into month-end, usually has a bullish bias to it. .
• So I'm not overly concerned about a major .
• sell off, but maybe the commodity sector's roll over this week. .
• We'll just have to wait and see. .
• Enjoy the rest of your day. .
• Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll .
• take a closer look at the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border. .