Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday Morning..
It's Stephen Whiteside here from the.
uptrend.com in the Premarket this morning things are fairly quiet..
Stock index futures and commodities are higher..
Dow futures currently up 50 points..
Now Wednesday should be a fairly quiet day..
The market is waiting for CPI numbers to come out on Thursday morning and I think.
volatility will start to expand after those numbers come out..
Here's an interesting chart I saw this morning..
Small business optimism, it dropped in December..
What's interesting about that is the fact.
that we're down at levels that we haven't seen since back at the Pandemic lows..
And you can see the overall trend has been down for the last couple of years..
So boots on the ground, bottom up.
analysis, it's not looking good out there for 2023..
Now if you've checked the news this morning, you've probably heard that the US.
is having trouble with its air traffic control system this morning..
And that part of the market has been doing fairly well over the past few days..
Looking at the Jets ETF, and then looking.
at Travel Technology and then looking at the airlines there's..
American Airlines having a new closing high for this move on Tuesday and even.
Southwest has been able to get back on a buy signal over the past couple of days..
So air traffic control system down, that.
might not be good for these stocks on Wednesday..
Then looking at the SPY S&P 500 on Friday,.
the market had a nice big pop and ended the day with a buy signal..
We were looking for fall through to the upside on Monday we got that intraday but.
then going into the close we gave it all up and actually closed lower on the day..
So the high for that day was 393. 70..
So you need to put a pin in that number..
Yesterday we did close higher on the day but did not take out that previous high..
So we're looking to see if we can do that on Wednesday..
That would certainly be helpful for the Bullish case..
If we could take out Monday's high, that bearish reversal signal is still in play..
It we need to close above Monday's high to take out that bearish reversal signal..
Otherwise that is the high for this particular move..
Now we're stuck at our price target of 390..
63. So if you had an order in to sell that has.
been filled over the past couple of days, if we can break out above Monday's high.
then 400 is a nice target to the upside as a big psychological round number..
But you can see that back in November and.
December we peaked just above the 406.25 target..
Looking at the Canadian market we had similar situation..
Nice big update on Friday, left with a buy.
signal, looking for fall through to the upside on Monday..
Again, we had it intraday and then gave it all up going into the close..
So we're looking to see if we can take out 30..
56 as our next target to the upside..
You can see that 30..
47 is holding us in check right now..
If we can take that out, then 30..
86 would be our next target to the upside for the ishares for the TSX 60..
Now the VIX is back on a sell signal as of Friday's close..
That would change on Wednesday with a close above 22..
80. Now the problem with the VIX and the.
problem the VIX has had for the past couple of months is in early November we.
started to trade in to a range below 25 and above 18.75. We're really not going to.
know which way the market wants to go next long term until we break out of this.
range and it doesn't look like we're going to do that on Wednesday..
Now a couple of stocks I watched very closely..
I'm still short Apple..
That has not changed..
That would change on Wednesday and caused me to take action on Thursday morning..
If we get a close above 131..
33..
For Tesla, we're still looking for a close above 122..
70 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal..
And we had an inside day yesterday for.
Microsoft, looking for a close on Wednesday above 235..
86..
So far that open gap is holding us in check..
Let's finish off this morning's.
presentation with a quick look at commodities..
Well, if small business optimism is going down, copper is going up..
And if that is a global economic.
barometer, it has been making higher highs and higher lows recently and that is.
bullish for copper and a lot of the mining stocks..
Gold made a new closing high yesterday..
It's still stuck at 1875..
If we can take out Monday's high, then 1906.25 is our next target to the upside..
Going in the other direction unfortunately is silver..
Not very quickly, but we've been down the last couple of days..
The pros are starting to give up control of silver..
That could put a damper on Gold's movement to the upside..
We'll just have to wait and see..
Now when you look at this chart, you can see how flat the public line is..
The public doesn't have a lot of influence over the silver futures contract..
It does certainly have an influence on the silver ETFs..
And you can see the public is a lot more.
active in the ETF market than they are in the futures market..
And so that's why you get the big difference between that line representing.
the public and that line representing the public..
And as you can see, the public is starting to take control of the price of silver.
right now as the pros start to exit the market..
Looking at crude oil..
We had an inside day yesterday..
Things would change on Wednesday with a.
close above 75 72 and we had a new closing low for natural gas on Tuesday..
Looking to see if that turns around..
It is up slightly in the pre market on Wednesday morning..
Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation..
I'm off to donate blood this morning..
I hope you've got an appointment booked soon..
There is quite a shortage of blood at the moment..
Have a great day..
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning..
Thank you..