Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Super.
Bowl Sunday edition of Stock Market Timing Television..
Not a lot new to ponder this week..
The market US markets had an inside week,.
whether we're looking at the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100..
So not a lot of damage was done..
We'll talk about resistance later in the presentation..
The Canadian market was down on the week, but no major change range there..
We actually closed within the previous week's range..
A couple of things that could affect the market this week..
We've got CPI numbers on Tuesday and then February options expire on Friday, and.
either of those could add to market volatility this week..
Now, speaking of volatility..
The VIX moved up on the week. It was up 12% on the weekly chart..
We need to close this coming Friday above 23.03 to give us a new buy signal..
Of course, that would tell us that options traders are getting a little wary of the.
market and we're starting to act defensively..
On the daily chart, you can see the VIX generated a buy signal on Thursday..
On Friday, we actually moved up to.
resistance and then pulled back and actually closed slightly lower on the day..
So we're looking for a breakout above 21. 88..
On the downside on Monday, we're looking.
for a close below 18.70 to get us back on track and tell us that options traders are.
not that scared of what's going to happen next..
Now, we were watching the US dollar index, which was up last week, it was up again.
this week, and we're still on a sell signal here..
But a higher US dollar may not be helpful for the stock market..
Bonds continued to move lower this week and bond yields were up..
The yield on the 30 year bond was up just under five and a half percent..
If that trend continues, that could also hurt the stock market, a sign that some.
risk money came out of the market this week..
We saw bitcoin pull back just over seven.
and a half percent, and we're seeing a daily sell signal.
for bitcoin on Thursday and some fall through to the downside on Friday..
Looking at the daily charts, the Ishares for the TSX 60 still on a buy signal..
Similar situation for the Dow diamonds,.
the SPY ETF, and the queues for the Nasdaq 100..
So we saw some weakness this week, but we.
did not end the week on daily sell signals..
Now, last week we talked about resistance, and all the resistance is still holding..
Whether you're looking at the Dow, the.
Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, the SOX Index, or the TSX 60, we did not punch.
through or close above any of those resistance levels this week..
Now, not everything is stuck at resistance at the moment..
If we look at the TSX itself, it's halfway between two price targets..
And what we're going to be watching for is.
if we do get a pullback here, we could pull back to 20,000, use that as support.
and that would not break the nice uptrend line..
If we start breaking the uptrend line then.
the more it breaks, the more we're going to get long term bearish on the market..
Now the S&P 500 is still stuck to the 4062..
50 level and if we take out last week's.
high this week, that could be the sign that we're going to head up and retest..
First of all, we'd have to retest the summer lows before we get to 4375..
And again we'll be watching for any.
pullback because this is a bullish chart here..
We've got a higher low and a higher high that's bullish..
And if we get a pullback, do we hold the.
nice uptrend line or do we start to break it?.
Let's take a look at weekly commodity prices..
We saw copper pull back again back in the.
channel, so still on a weekly sell signal, that has not changed..
Gold still on a weekly sell signal..
Now oddly enough, gold was just down a $1.30 on the week..
So we had a bearish reversal week last week..
We continued to trade lower that's.
bearish, but we are stuck at 1875, closing at 1876..
40..
And you can see below if we continue to move lower this week, 1812..
50 and 1750 are the next two targets to the downside..
Now silver continued to move lower this.
week, so that's not a good sign for gold and it's certainly not a good sign for the.
mining stocks if we've got copper, gold and silver all trading lower..
Looking at energy, starting with crude oil, crude oil was up nearly 7% on the.
week, but for crude oil that's not that dramatic and we're still on a sell signal..
Things would change this week with a close above 79..
48..
Natural gas has not shown any sign of upward momentum but it is holding support.
at 2.34. And so this is the time and place we look for a turnaround in natural gas..
So far we haven't seen any real indication..
The first sign of course, would be a close.
above that previous week's high and that has yet to happen..
So thinking positive thoughts for natural gas at the moment..
Okay folks, let's finish off this.
weekend's presentation with a couple of stocks to watch..
We've seen a pullback in some of the major winners for the past month or so and we've.
seen a pullback in Apple, Microsoft and Tesla..
So now we're looking to see if we see fall through to the downside this week and that.
would certainly be negative for the markets if that were to happen..
I was also going to include shopify in this list but it actually rolled over on.
Friday, so got a new sell signal for shopify..
Of course before you take any buy signal.
or sell signal, you want to check to see what's happening in the pre market..
If it's not trading in the pre market,.
then go into your brokerage account and see what the bid and ask is..
Just make sure there's not a major.
discrepancy between Friday's close and Mondays open..
A lot of times stocks can get buy signals.
and sell signals on misinformation or misunderstanding or rumors or outright.
lies, and that can be corrected overnight or over the weekend..
You just want to make sure that things are.
what's happening on Monday morning is pretty similar to what happened on Friday..
Of course, if it's bidding higher on.
Monday but not that much higher, we're not up at the 68.17 level..
The fact that it's actually bidding higher.
on Monday morning is good for you because you want to sell it..
So you're going to get to sell it at a higher price..
So don't stop taking a sell signal because it's bidding up slightly in the pre.
market, but certainly ignore a sell signal if it's up dramatically in the pre market..
Okay folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation..
Just a reminder that this educational.
video has been translated into the following languages..
If you need access to the translated versions of video, please come to our.
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That way you'll get access to the translated versions as well..
Unfortunately, due to logistics, the.
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Have a great time tonight..
Don't eat too much, don't drink too much, and I hope your team wins..
Next time you'll hear my voice will be on Tuesday morning..