Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning..
It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend..
Com..
Well, yesterday was a fairly volatile day after the CPI numbers came out..
In the Canadian market, it was Healthcare.
was the winner with Consumer Discretionary, the loser, and it.
was the opposite in the US, Consumer Discretionary was the big winner..
Real Estate was the big loser..
When it comes to looking at the major.
indexes, it was Nasdaq leading the market higher..
Now in the premarket this morning, the.
Nasdaq is actually giving up most of the gains that it made yesterday..
So we are looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning..
Now, there were some trend changes from Tuesday's trading action..
If you're a subscriber, you can see those in the Nightly Report..
There's no trend changes for the things.
that I normally watch every day, except the VIX..
Now, you can see the pros giving up control here..
Unfortunately, I don't think the VIX is going to be very reliable for the next.
few days as options are set to expire on Thursday..
So I'm really not going to rely too much.
on the VIX, and I'm not going to get overly excited..
Some of the other things we're watching.
did not change yesterday, such as the US dollar index..
You can see the pros are still in control..
And while we had a very small pullback.
yesterday, we're still above the tether line, so no change there..
No change in the bond market with.
bonds continuing to fall, bond yields continuing to move up..
Pro's still in control there..
The price of gold, it closed.
slightly higher yesterday, still trading below 1875..
It is down in the premarket this morning..
And as you can see where the pros gave up control..
And then looking at the price of silver, no change in trend there..
We were down slightly on the day..
And I certainly think silver is leading.
the metals market at the moment, and it's leading it to the downside..
Then looking at crude oil..
Now, crude oil is on a buy signal right now, but the pros and the public have been.
intertwined, and the pros just gave up control yesterday..
So while crude oil can stay on a buy signal here, I.
don't really see the pros getting too excited about crude oil, and.
that might not help the energy sector at the moment..
And we'll take a look at energy stocks in a few minutes..
Here's natural gas..
The pros are certainly not taking control, but they're coming back..
Maybe over the next week or two, we could.
get a new buy signal with an indication that the pros are.
willing to take control, and that could help move natural gas up..
Natural gas has been floating above the.
234 level for the last couple of weeks, and we're looking to see if.
the pros will come back, take control, and start moving natural gas higher..
Looking at the DOW Diamonds, no change from yesterday..
Small pullback for the S&P.
500, and a small gain for the Nasdaq, about three quarters of a % on the day..
Certainly nowhere near the recent high,.
but the pros are still in control, so no sign of weakness there..
Similar situation for semiconductors..
Then looking at the Canadian market, things a bit tighter here..
Certainly no change in trend from yesterday's trading action..
The Ishares for the TSX 60 were up a tick on the day, so no change there..
Then looking at are financials, starting off in the US, the pros still in control..
They're in control of the banks, they're.
in control of insurance and the broker dealers at the moment..
Then looking at the Canadian.
financials, Canadian banks, they're holding up very well..
When we move on to commodities, you can.
see energy stocks starting off with the ishares for the TSX Energy sector..
You can see the pros in the public almost touching at the moment..
So no upward momentum in the Canadian.
market and certainly no upward momentum in the US market at the moment..
Unfortunately, I don't think.
energy stocks are going to be able to go much higher from here unless the pros.
want to become more aggressive and with commodities trading lower in the.
pre market on Wednesday, I think that we may start to.
see some sell signals in the energy sector joining sell signals in the gold sector..
There's the.
GDX and the XGD.TO. You can see the pros not in control at the moment, so not.
expecting any upward momentum in the precious metal stocks..
Then last up, the stocks I'm watching this week..
Apple was down yesterday ever so much..
Pro is still in control..
It doesn't look like things are going to change there..
It doesn't look like things are going to change for Microsoft..
Microsoft still holding up fairly well..
And you can see the Shopify, even though.
it's on a sell signal, it came back into the channel yesterday..
So on the TSX, we're looking for a close.
above 67.84 to give us a new buy signal on Wednesday..
If you were to take that buy signal, of.
course, that would be considered a high risk buy signal as we are up at the top of.
the panic zones and projecting lower prices at the time..
So you could get a continuation trade here..
I wouldn't expect it to go much higher, but it is certainly possible..
We see money come back into Shopify.
as the other tech stocks are still holding up, such as Tesla..
And you can see the pros inching higher yesterday..
The stock was up sharply yesterday, it was up over 7 %..
So I guess the more we talk about it, the more it goes up..
But there it is..
We need to close on Wednesday below 184.77. Not expecting that to happen on.
Wednesday, but it could certainly happen on Thursday or Friday..
Okay, that's all for this morning's presentation..
Stock index futures are still trading lower..
Looking at the VIX, we are back on a sell.
signal as I mentioned, and the pros have given up control..
The only problem here is we're still in a very tight range..
So yeah, they can muck about in this.
range, but if the stock market is going to move higher,.
then we need it to take out this recent low..
If the stock market is going to move.
lower, we need the VIX to take out this recent high..
So we're still in the middle of this range.
and I don't think a new sell signal in the VIX is that conclusive that the.
market is really going to go higher from here..
With options expiring this week, a lot of hedges are going to be taken off..
They're going to be moved to other months..
There's just a lot of mess going on here..
And so it's very hard to get a good feel of where the market is.
going to go next based just on the VIX alone..
Okay, folks, we're looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning..
Have a great day..
Next time you'll hear my voice is.
on Thursday morning. you. Bye..