$FontName = Arial $FontSize = 26 $Bold = TRUE $Underlined = FALSE $Italic = FALSE $HorzAlign = Center $VertAlign = Bottom $XOffset = 0 $YOffset = 0 $HorzAlign = Center $XOffset = 0 $VertAlign = Center $YOffset = 149. 00:00:00:00 , 00:00:01:00 , Hello, everyone.. 00:00:01:00 , 00:00:03:00 ,It's Stephen White side here from theuptrend.. 00:00:03:00 , 00:00:07:00 ,com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.. 00:00:07:00 , 00:00:08:00 ,Well, it's Sunday evening.. 00:00:08:00 , 00:00:10:00 ,Stock Index futures have opened.. 00:00:10:00 , 00:00:13:00 ,With all that going on in Russia this. 00:00:13:00 , 00:00:16:00 ,weekend, stock index futures are pretty firm.. 00:00:16:00 , 00:00:19:00 ,DOW futures currently up 45 points.. 00:00:19:00 , 00:00:21:00 ,So far, the stock index futures are not. 00:00:21:00 , 00:00:24:00 ,reacting to what's going on in Russia at all.. 00:00:24:00 , 00:00:26:00 ,Maybe they know more than the rest of the. 00:00:26:00 , 00:00:29:00 ,world does, but that's the current situation.. 00:00:29:00 , 00:00:32:00 ,Now, I'm very concerned about the weakness. 00:00:32:00 , 00:00:36:00 ,in financials, and we saw interest rates rise around the world this week.. 00:00:36:00 , 00:00:40:00 ,They went up in Canada, they went up in the UK, they went up in Australia.. 00:00:40:00 , 00:00:44:00 ,So we are seeing pressure on interest rates.. 00:00:44:00 , 00:00:49:00 ,And of course, we're still looking for a recession, which I guess everybody is just. 00:00:49:00 , 00:00:52:00 ,trying to push out as far as humanly possible.. 00:00:52:00 , 00:00:54:00 ,But you can see US financials pulled back,. 00:00:54:00 , 00:00:59:00 ,Canadian financials pulled back, and it's really sad to see this lower high here.. 00:00:59:00 , 00:01:00:00 ,And then we started to pull back.. 00:01:00:00 , 00:01:04:00 ,Now, what we have to worry about is do we hold support here?. 00:01:04:00 , 00:01:07:00 ,We came down a couple of weeks ago at the. 00:01:07:00 , 00:01:12:00 ,end of May and retested the areas of support from back in March.. 00:01:12:00 , 00:01:14:00 ,And now, let's see what happens this week,. 00:01:14:00 , 00:01:17:00 ,see if we can find some support or if we keep going.. 00:01:17:00 , 00:01:21:00 ,Now, regional banks were the big losers on the week in the US,. 00:01:21:00 , 00:01:25:00 ,and of course, we're not looking to invest in US regional banks.. 00:01:25:00 , 00:01:27:00 ,We are just looking at it as an indicator,. 00:01:28:00 , 00:01:34:00 ,hoping that there is not a financial crisis caused by regional bank failure.. 00:01:34:00 , 00:01:36:00 ,That is still a possibility.. 00:01:36:00 , 00:01:39:00 ,Now, looking at the seasonality chart, we. 00:01:39:00 , 00:01:44:00 ,had selling all week, and that basically lines up with the seasonality I would have. 00:01:44:00 , 00:01:47:00 ,expected it to start a lot earlier than it did this week.. 00:01:47:00 , 00:01:51:00 ,But from here to the end of the month, it's usually positive.. 00:01:51:00 , 00:01:53:00 ,And of course, coming into month end is. 00:01:53:00 , 00:01:57:00 ,usually bullish, coming into long weekends, and we do have some holidays. 00:01:57:00 , 00:02:01:00 ,coming up on both sides of the border, which usually has a bullish bias.. 00:02:01:00 , 00:02:04:00 ,So we'll just have to see what happens.. 00:02:04:00 , 00:02:05:00 ,Now, the VIX is still very bullish.. 00:02:05:00 , 00:02:08:00 ,If you're a long term investor, we're going to remain long term bullish on the. 00:02:08:00 , 00:02:14:00 ,market as long as the VIX does not start closing above 18.57 this coming Friday.. 00:02:14:00 , 00:02:18:00 ,If you're trading the market, we're going to remain short term bullish. 00:02:18:00 , 00:02:23:00 ,on the market as long as the VIX doesn't close above 14.59 on Monday.. 00:02:23:00 , 00:02:24:00 ,And of course, if that doesn't happen on. 00:02:24:00 , 00:02:28:00 ,Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.. 00:02:28:00 , 00:02:30:00 ,Now, I saw this chart this week.. 00:02:30:00 , 00:02:31:00 ,This is from JP Morgan.. 00:02:31:00 , 00:02:35:00 ,It's a squeeze indicator, and they're. 00:02:35:00 , 00:02:38:00 ,looking at market sentiment, and we're very overbought at the moment.. 00:02:38:00 , 00:02:42:00 ,And last time we were this overbought was back in January.. 00:02:42:00 , 00:02:46:00 ,And if we look at the fly paper channel chart and we go back to that peak in. 00:02:46:00 , 00:02:50:00 ,January, you can see how much of a sell off we got.. 00:02:50:00 , 00:02:51:00 ,And if we map that out over on the. 00:02:51:00 , 00:02:55:00 ,right-hand side, you see that takes us down towards 400.. 00:02:55:00 , 00:02:57:00 ,Mathematically speaking, you can see we. 00:02:57:00 , 00:03:03:00 ,start going down two lines 421, 414.06, a lot of support.. 00:03:03:00 , 00:03:05:00 ,Well, it was previous resistance, which on. 00:03:05:00 , 00:03:08:00 ,the way back down should be expected to act as support.. 00:03:08:00 , 00:03:12:00 ,So that would certainly be a legitimate target to the downside for a pullback.. 00:03:12:00 , 00:03:17:00 ,Of course, if we keep going below that, then that's a stronger indication that the. 00:03:17:00 , 00:03:20:00 ,market is going into a longer term downtrend.. 00:03:20:00 , 00:03:22:00 ,And of course, if we start breaking 400,. 00:03:22:00 , 00:03:27:00 ,that is certainly going to be a huge signal to the market.. 00:03:27:00 , 00:03:32:00 ,Now, this is a heat map of the S&P 500 year to date.. 00:03:32:00 , 00:03:34:00 ,And if you look at what's been working,. 00:03:34:00 , 00:03:38:00 ,these are the stocks we talk about nearly every day, those big cap tech stocks.. 00:03:38:00 , 00:03:41:00 ,Notice the rest of the market not really participating.. 00:03:41:00 , 00:03:45:00 ,And look at how big these squares and rectangles are.. 00:03:45:00 , 00:03:46:00 ,That's the market cap.. 00:03:46:00 , 00:03:51:00 ,That's the overall value of the shares of the company that are trading.. 00:03:51:00 , 00:03:53:00 ,And you can see that if you just take. 00:03:53:00 , 00:03:59:00 ,Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, these are huge components of the market.. 00:03:59:00 , 00:04:01:00 ,And if they start to roll over, they're. 00:04:01:00 , 00:04:03:00 ,just going to crush everybody else out there.. 00:04:03:00 , 00:04:06:00 ,So that is certainly a major concern that. 00:04:06:00 , 00:04:09:00 ,this market is still very thin on the way up.. 00:04:09:00 , 00:04:13:00 ,There's just not that many stocks really participating right now.. 00:04:13:00 , 00:04:17:00 ,Now, looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50 day. 00:04:17:00 , 00:04:20:00 ,moving average, as you would expect, the Nasdaq is leading.. 00:04:20:00 , 00:04:26:00 ,64 % of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 50 day moving average.. 00:04:26:00 , 00:04:28:00 ,It comes down a bit when you look at the S&P 500.. 00:04:28:00 , 00:04:30:00 ,It comes down more when you look at the. 00:04:30:00 , 00:04:35:00 ,DOW 30, and it comes down a lot more when you're looking at the TSX.. 00:04:36:00 , 00:04:41:00 ,Of course, the TSX is being weighed down by a lot of weak commodity stocks at the. 00:04:41:00 , 00:04:43:00 ,moment, but also the banking stocks are not doing well.. 00:04:43:00 , 00:04:49:00 ,So Canadian market doesn't have the diversification that the US market has.. 00:04:49:00 , 00:04:54:00 ,Now, when we look at a weekly chart of the major ETFs that we follow, you can. 00:04:54:00 , 00:04:59:00 ,see the queues had an inside week, but then when you look at the semiconductors,. 00:04:59:00 , 00:05:04:00 ,they were down over 4.5 % on the week and closed below the previous week's low.. 00:05:04:00 , 00:05:05:00 ,So that's a bearish sign.. 00:05:05:00 , 00:05:07:00 ,It looks like semiconductors may have. 00:05:07:00 , 00:05:10:00 ,peaked this week, but we're not seeing that in NVIDIA.. 00:05:10:00 , 00:05:14:00 ,Nvidia was down on the week just 1.13 %. 00:05:14:00 , 00:05:17:00 ,and certainly did not close below the previous week's low.. 00:05:17:00 , 00:05:21:00 ,Nvidia made a new high this week with a very small pullback.. 00:05:21:00 , 00:05:23:00 ,Looking at the S&P 500, it also had an inside week.. 00:05:23:00 , 00:05:26:00 ,Inside weeks, of course, are weeks of indecision.. 00:05:26:00 , 00:05:32:00 ,The market is waiting for additional informationbefore it makes a bigger move.. 00:05:32:00 , 00:05:37:00 ,And of course, in the S&P 500, you've got Tesla still holding up fairly well.. 00:05:37:00 , 00:05:39:00 ,Tesla traded up into that open gap.. 00:05:39:00 , 00:05:42:00 ,It traded above the open gap, which of course is now closed.. 00:05:42:00 , 00:05:45:00 ,But you can see that that gap area has. 00:05:45:00 , 00:05:49:00 ,acted as an area of resistance for the market.. 00:05:49:00 , 00:05:50:00 ,Next up, we're looking at the DOW.. 00:05:50:00 , 00:05:56:00 ,And of course, in 2023, the DOW is trailing the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.. 00:05:56:00 , 00:06:00:00 ,We pulled back this week, closed below the previous week's low, and once again, we. 00:06:00:00 , 00:06:05:00 ,failed to break out above 343.75. This is an area of resistance. 00:06:05:00 , 00:06:10:00 ,that's been in place for a year now, and that looks like it's the top for this. 00:06:10:00 , 00:06:13:00 ,particular move, but we'll just have to wait and see.. 00:06:13:00 , 00:06:16:00 ,What's not working on the DOW in 2023?. 00:06:16:00 , 00:06:18:00 ,Well, the biggest loser has been 3M. 00:06:18:00 , 00:06:21:00 ,followed by Walgreens, followed by Chevron.. 00:06:21:00 , 00:06:23:00 ,What's been working on the DOW?. 00:06:23:00 , 00:06:25:00 ,Well, of course, let's just point at Apple.. 00:06:25:00 , 00:06:32:00 ,Apple made a new high this week at 187.56. Our next price target was 187.50. So. 00:06:32:00 , 00:06:35:00 ,chitchat, you got to lock in some profits up there.. 00:06:35:00 , 00:06:36:00 ,Congratulations.. 00:06:36:00 , 00:06:39:00 ,Now looking at the ishares for the TSX 60,. 00:06:39:00 , 00:06:41:00 ,we've been on a sell signal for five weeks now.. 00:06:41:00 , 00:06:46:00 ,We made a new closing low this week and you can see we're breaking down below. 00:06:46:00 , 00:06:51:00 ,29.69. Our next price target and the next potential area. 00:06:51:00 , 00:06:57:00 ,of support is at 28.91. You can see that it acted as support earlier in the year.. 00:06:57:00 , 00:06:58:00 ,What's working on the TSX?. 00:06:58:00 , 00:07:00:00 ,Well, once again, we have to go back to. 00:07:00:00 , 00:07:05:00 ,technology with Shopify being the big winner in 2023, followed by Open Text.. 00:07:05:00 , 00:07:07:00 ,Open Text is looking pretty Bearish right now.. 00:07:07:00 , 00:07:09:00 ,We've been down three weeks in a row.. 00:07:09:00 , 00:07:13:00 ,It looks like we've put in a top, waiting for a sell signal with a close below 52.. 00:07:13:00 , 00:07:15:00 ,68. This coming Friday.. 00:07:15:00 , 00:07:19:00 ,Then our next winner for 2023 is Kominko.. 00:07:19:00 , 00:07:21:00 ,Looking like it put in a top two weeks. 00:07:21:00 , 00:07:25:00 ,ago, and we'll have to see if we can continue to move lower from here.. 00:07:25:00 , 00:07:28:00 ,Now looking at the losers for 2023 on the. 00:07:28:00 , 00:07:32:00 ,TSX 60, Nutrien has been the big loser, followed by Cenovus,. 00:07:32:00 , 00:07:39:00 ,followed by Pembina Pipeline which put in a new low for 2023 on Friday.. 00:07:39:00 , 00:07:43:00 ,Let's finish off looking at commodities and starting off with energy.. 00:07:43:00 , 00:07:48:00 ,We had crude oil down just under 3 % on the week, so no change in trend there.. 00:07:48:00 , 00:07:53:00 ,Natural gas was up on the week and is back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.. 00:07:53:00 , 00:07:55:00 ,Then looking at the metals, we had a. 00:07:55:00 , 00:07:59:00 ,reversal in copper, so still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.. 00:07:59:00 , 00:08:02:00 ,A lower low for gold and a lower low for gold and a lower low for silver.. 00:08:02:00 , 00:08:08:00 ,So no help to the mining stocks from commodity prices this week.. 00:08:08:00 , 00:08:11:00 ,Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.. 00:08:11:00 , 00:08:13:00 ,Thank you very much for your time and attention.. 00:08:13:00 , 00:08:17:00 ,Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning..