Good morning everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside here. from theuptrend.com with today's look
at North American stock market trends.. Well, we're coming up to CPI numbers. at 8:30AM this morning and so far it has been
a fairly bullish morning with the Dow. futures currently up
just under 300 points.. So people are apparently not
waiting for those CPI numbers.. They think they're going
to be bullish for the market.. Now Wednesday turned out to be
an inside day for the US market.. So whether you're looking at the Dow
Diamonds, the Spiders, the Q's,. the Russell 2000, or the Microcap sector,
they all had an inside day on Wednesday.. An inside day of course is a day
of indecision, a pause day, a rest day.. They're waiting for more information. to come out and that information is
going to come out at 830 this morning.. So we are expecting Volatility to expand.. So going from an inside day
to a wide bar day on Thursday.. Now what didn't work yesterday?. Utilities on both sides
of the border were the big losers.. The big winner in the US
was energy and transports.. And oddly enough, the biggest
winners in the Transport sector.. And the biggest winners on the S&P
500 were the cruise lines.. Starting off with Norwegian,
then Royal, followed by Carnival.. They were all up sharply yesterday,
leading the S&P 500 higher.. Now looking at the Canadian market,
we didn't get an inside day for the TSX,. but we certainly got a very
small range bar day.. We haven't had a day like that since
back here in the middle of September.. And then of course,
Volatility expanded the next day. and that's what we're
expecting to happen today.. No idea on the ultimate direction. of the market, it is bullish
before the CPI announcement.. That does not mean it's
going to be bullish after.. So new low for the TSX,
new low for the TSX 60.. Mid caps held up a little better.. Small caps held up fairly well, while
the microcaps traded lower on Wednesday.. Now the big winner on the TSX, big
winner from a loser is cannabis stocks.. Once again, of course this
is a very volatile sector.. It'll often show up at the top. of the winners and the biggest loser of
the day, it'll just shift back and forth.. We had that big update last week,
which was followed by a big down day.. And you can see we traded right up
to the Flypaper Channel and reversed.. So if you were long any of the cannabis. stocks last week, hopefully you had orders
in above the market to get filled because. you only had two days to take some profits
before things went back to the norm.. Now what didn't work?. Well, just like in the US.. It was the utility sector was
the big loser on Wednesday.. Let's finish off looking at those mega. trends and one of the mega trends
of course is a rising VIX.. Now the VIX seems to be stuck here at 34.38. and if we can't break through there
that would probably indicate. that the market wants to turn
around at this point.. And here's an interesting chart.. Here's a Vanguard all world except the US. ETF.. And as you can see we're in a bear market
using the Flypaper Channel as resistance.. But right now it looks like we're trying
to put in a double bottom here at 43.75.. If we can hold that, this could be the time. and place where the market
wants to turn around.. Remember we can't get the VIX to push. higher, which means traders aren't willing
to pay for more portfolio insurance. at the moment,
which means they're starting to turn. from being bearish net
bearish to somewhat bullish.. It doesn't mean that that's going to mark
the bottom for this particular move but it. certainly means that we could head up
from here, maybe up two lines and then. stop for a pause before
we head lower again.. We'll just have to wait and see.. Now of course the US dollar
index moved up yesterday.. It's another one of our big trends.. And of course that has a lot to do. with the bond yields which had
an inside day yesterday.. The 30 year bond had an inside
day on Wednesday as well.. We still have copper trading
in the channel so as an economic barometer. it's not telling us too
much at the moment.. You can see copper has traded up. to the Flypaper Channel several
times and it's acted as resistant.. So copper is still in a bear
market of course, as is gold.. And gold recently traded up the fly paper. channel and reversed as
the US dollar reversed.. So if we can get the US dollar to start. to come down again, we could probably
get money to flow back into gold.. But right now we're on a daily sell signal
and then let's finish off with energy.. We've got crude off with an early warning
signal up there at the top of the screen. we've pulled back
for the past couple of days.. We're still on a buy signal here.. We need a close on Thursday below
83.95 to give us a Sell Signal.. And for natural gas we're
still on a sell signal.. Things would change on Thursday
with a close above 7.01.. If we start breaking down below 6.25 then. 5.47 would be our next
target to the downside.. Okay folks, that is all for this
morning's presentation.. The CPI numbers are coming
out in a few minutes.. I'm not going to wait for that because I'm. going to try to get the video
posted as quickly as possible.. It's going to be interesting to see if the
rest of the world can hold support here.. Of course we're all focused on what's. going on in North America and rarely do we
look beyond our borders except when. the other countries show
up as major news items.. But here's what the rest
of the world looks like right now.. It looks like they're trying to put. in a double bottom, and we'll
have to see if that can hold.. And of course, one of the ways it's going. to be able to hold is if we can
get the VIX to start to come down.. Enjoy the rest of the day.. Next time you'll hear my voice. is on Friday morning.. .