Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning.. Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com. with today's look at North American
stock market trends.. In the premarket this morning,
stock index futures are fairly quiet.. Dow and S&P 500 futures are higher,
while Nasdaq futures are slightly lower.. Commodities are higher across
the board on Thursday morning.. Let's start off looking
at the price of copper.. And copper is often
referred to as dr copper.. It's considered a global economic. barometer, mostly to do with construction
activity around the world.. On a shortterm basis,
this charts looking pretty bearish.. We had a high here in August, a lower high
in September, and then a lower high here.. We had a low there and then a lower low.. So now we're looking
to see what happens next.. Do we hold support here
at the recent lower?. Do we break it?. And I would imagine that we're
probably going to break it now.. If we look at a longer term monthly chart. of copper, you can see that we've
seen some weakness in 2022.. Most of that has to do with the
construction weakness in China.. The Chinese market made
a new low yesterday.. It is going to make another new low today
as the market traded down overnight.. So when the Chinese ETFs open up. in New York at 9:30, they're all going
to trade lower on Thursday morning.. Now, the other economic barometer that I
like to watch closely is the socks index.. The chip sector chips are basically. included in everything that's manufactured
today from, of course,. we know cell phones and computers,
but the whole world of the automobile. industry is totally controlled
by the chip sector.. And chips are still on a cell signal
right now inside day yesterday.. If we look at a monthly chart of the socks. index, you can see the weakness
that we've had in 2022.. And of course, we made
a new low last week.. So the first time something new is
happening, of course,. is going to be a monthly close
above the previous month's high.. And not expecting that
to happen in October.. Looking at a daily chart of the pros
and the public, they're still in their own. corners, and it doesn't look like
the pros want to take control right away.. Now, the chip stocks that I watch. the most, and I really try to focus
on a handful of stocks each day.. I don't go wandering looking in the dark. corners of the stock market
for something to do.. I trade the stocks that I
follow and that's it.. And AMD is still on a sell signal here.. Looks like it's building
an area of support.. It's been trading sideways
for the past couple of weeks.. It did make a new low last week,
but then came back.. And so yesterday it was an inside day.. A close above 61 45 would give
us a buy signal on Thursday.. Now, I talked about Nvidia last week.. It looked like the market was more. interested in Nvidia than AMD,
and that is still true.. We traded through the upper channel line
on Tuesday and inside day on Wednesday. at close above 123.17 would give us
a buy signal on Thursday for Nvidia.. Now, intel is a widely watched stock
because it's part of the Dow 30.. I'm going to show you why I don't trade
intel or follow it,. but right now it's been trading
in the channel for the past five days. and looking for a close
on Thursday above 26.62.. Now, if you look at the average true range
of intel, it's currently just a little. over 4%, which is quite big for
the average stock on the stock market.. But we're in the chip sector and what you. should be looking for in the chip sector
is something more like Nvidia over 6% or. AMD, which is up just under
six and a half percent.. So if you're trying to trade for capital. gains, you want a stock that has a fairly
normal average true range for the sector. and not go after the stock with the lowest
average true range in the sector.. And intel is often that particular stock.. So if you want more volatility,
if you want more opportunity for capital. gains, you stick with the ones
with a higher average true range.. And of course, if you're a risk averse,
you don't go after stocks like this. because 6.46% is actually pretty high
for the average North American stock.. Now, the queues had an inside day
yesterday, so we're still on a sell signal. here that would change on Thursday
with a close above 270 319.. Tesla's in the news
came out with earnings.. It's down in the pre market this morning,. still above last week's lows,
so they haven't been broken yet.. So that's a good sign.. There may be a chance Tesla could
start to put in a bottom here.. Things could turn around on Thursday,. but in the premarket this morning,
they are trading lower.. Now, there's a lot of talk
regarding Tesla.. Of course, there always is.. Elon Musk is thinking about doing share
buybacks, and then the market is looking. at the fact that Elon Musk is probably
going to have to sell more of his Tesla. shares to afford to buy Twitter, which
of course he has an obligation to do.. Now, IBM's in the news this morning,
it's on a buy signal right now.. It's trading higher in the pre market,. right up at the high
from a couple of weeks ago.. So 125 is our mathematical target,. but we did poke our head
above that back in October.. Now, I haven't traded IBM in probably 2025. years because it's got a very low average
true range at 2.63%. It's not a technology. stock and that's probably
why I stopped trading it.. It's a consulting company.. It's not a technology stock anymore,. but it is widely followed
because it's part of the Dow 30.. So it's got an average true range,
but that's not what I'm looking for.. I'm a more aggressive investor than
probably the average investor out there.. Now, looking at the bond market,. bonds made new lows yesterday
and bond yields made new highs.. So the market has been holding up fairly. well as the yields
continue to move higher.. So I would have expected
the stock market to sell off.. More on the news of these new higher
yields, there's the TLT making a new low.. There's the XBB in Toronto
making a new low.. We've got emerging market
bonds holding up fairly well.. And then the junk bonds are still on a buy
signal here from Tuesday's trading action.. Now, junk bonds have a very
low average true range.. And so I personally would
never trade a bond ETF.. Yes, they have buy and sell signals, yes,
they trend, but the chance of making. reasonable amount of capital gains
on trading a bond ETF is rather low.. Now, I trade bonds,
but I trade bonds in the futures market. because the margin leverage on a bond
is much higher than it is on an ETF.. So there is a lot more opportunity to make
capital gains and capital losses. in the bond futures market,
but not the bond ETF market.. And of course, some people have a reason. to be in the bond ETF market,
but it is not me.. Next up, let's take a look at commodities,
starting with the price of gold.. Made a new low for this move yesterday,
coming down to the 162.50 level.. That's where we expect to find support.. If that breaks, of course,
then 1562 50 is our next target.. The GLD looking pretty similar
to the futures contract.. 150 is our next target,. but the low a couple of weeks
ago is 151.03.. So that should be the low
that you're looking for right now.. Gold miners in the US on a sell signal.. Gold miners on the TSX
also on a sell signal.. Now we've got crude oil
on a sell signal right now.. Had an inside day yesterday.. The USO ETF did not have an inside day.. Traded up into the channel.. Then we've got the natural gas futures. contract and the Ung both
making new lows on Thursday.. So those charts don't look very bullish.. But on the other hand,
we still have energy stocks on the TSX. on a buy signal and energy stocks
on the NYSE also on a buy signal.. Heading up to try to retest
the highs from back in August.. Let's finish off this morning's. presentation looking at the major
indices starting with the VIX.. The VIX is still on a sell signal,. but didn't do anything
for the market yesterday.. Trading higher, closing higher.. If we move from the right side chart. to the midterm chart,
you can see when conservative investors. are going to feel more comfortable
getting back into the market.. And that's when the VIX
is going to be below 26.. And you can see on the spider ETF chart,. even though we're on a bicycle
on the right side chart,. we've got a bit of work to do before
we get above the midterm tether line.. That's also true for the Q's.. The Q's, of course, are still
on a cell signal right now.. And then there's the I
shares for the TSX 60.. So the first sign that more conservative
money is getting back into the market is. when we start closing above the upper
tether line on the midterm charts.. And that may take a little bit of work,
so I'm not going to get overly excited. on these new daily short
term right side buy signals.. Right now, the market has a bit more work
to do, and certainly everybody's. anticipating a low here in October
and then a rally into the year end.. Of course, you can anticipate those. things, but we need to see more evidence
that that's actually happening.. And of course, the bond market hitting new
lows is probably not supportive. for the stock market to have
a major turnaround at this time.. Okay, that's all
for Thursday morning, folks.. Enjoy the rest of your day.. I won't be back on Friday.. Next time you'll hear
my voice is on Sunday..