Hello everyone, and welcome
to Wednesday Morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside here. from TheUptrend.com,
and in this presentation we're going to do. a tutorial on trading
at the Horizons BetaPro ETFs.. Before we get started, today is a Fed day,
of course, and we're expecting the Fed. announcement at 02:00 P.m., and then
the excitement meant to start after that.. As you can see, the Dow Diamonds have
traded up and got stuck at resistance.. They hit resistance on Friday
and Monday and Tuesday.. We're still stuck there as volatility has
contracted going into the Fed meeting.. Of course, after the Fed meeting comes
out, we're expecting volatility to expand. dramatically, of course, taking
a position just ahead of the Fed meeting.. It's a three part bet.. You're betting on what they say, what they
do, and of course, how the market reacts.. And really, at the end of the day,. the only thing we care about
is how the market reacts.. Now, in the pre market this morning,
things are very quiet out there.. Stock index futures are trading
right around fair value.. So it doesn't look like a lot of investors. are sticking their neck out this
morning ahead of the Fed meeting.. Now let's get back to our 2X ETFs.. They're designed to give
twice the daily return.. So remember that's daily, not weekly, not
monthly, not yearly, the daily return.. And so here's an example from yesterday.. The TSX energy index was up 1.29%. If you
double that, that is 2.58%. And then if we. go to the corresponding Horizons BetaPro
ETF, it actually ended up to up 2.54%.. So just off by a little.. And that's typically what happens.. The market investors can bid up and bid
down the Horizons BetaPro ETFs.. So they don't necessarily have to end up. being exactly two times the move
of the underlying index.. And again, remember,
these are daily returns.. They're not weekly, not monthly.. So these are not investment products.. These are trading products.. So don't ever think of these
as investing products.. They are just trading products.. Over the long term, they will not do
very well because of the volatility.. But we are here to capture the volatility.. Now, there's five ETFs that I
have as a bundle or a portfolio.. There are other ETFs.. You can do criticism, you can do gold, you
can do silver, you can do natural gas.. There's other ones out there.. These are the five core ones that I trade.. Now, each one of them has
its own characteristics.. Typically the energy related ETFs
are going to be the most volatile.. Then you've got out of the three major. index ETFs, the Nasdaq with the technology
stocks, the biotech stocks is typically. more volatile than the S&P
500 and the TSX 60.. The TSX 60 is typically
the least volatile.. It's only got 60 stocks and typically has
the least volatility out of all of these.. So they all have their own characteristics
and over time, you'll get used to them.. Now, the strategy here is to be market. neutral, which means we're either going
to be long the bull ETF when the market is. rising, or long the bear ETF
when the market is falling.. Right now, the energy sector has been
moving up, so we are long the bull.. And of course, at some point we're going. to be along the bear,
but it isn't going to be today.. So we've got some room between where we. closed yesterday and the upper
channel line on the bare ETF.. And we've got lots of room between where. we closed yesterday and the lower
channel line on the bull ETF.. Now, the full name of the Horizon Beta Pro
product for the TSX 60 looks like this.. We just shortened it
down to the TSX 2X bull.. And right now we are along this bull.. You can see on the Panic Zone chart that
we're coming up to the top of the range.. We have not had an early warning signal. yet, but we have had a bearish
reversal signal which came yesterday.. And so we've been along this particular
ETF for a couple of weeks now.. The buy signal came with the first
close above the upper channel line.. You came in the next morning and you. bought it at the open just
below the 16.50 level.. Then you looked up and we had a price
target of 17.19 and then 17.97. So you've. had several opportunities to sell partial
positions and lock in some profits.. We took a run yesterday
towards 18.75, didn't make it.. We traded up at that level
back in September.. That's where we peaked up at the 18.75
level and then quickly reversed.. So it is doable to head up to 18.75,
but we may not do it.. We'll have to wait and see how the market. reacts to the Fed
announcement this afternoon.. But you should have an order in up there
at 18.75 to sell a partial position.. Then looking at the 2X bull for the S&P. 500, we do have an early
warning signal up there.. We've had a couple
of bearish reversal days.. The pros are still in control.. On Wednesday, we need a closed blow,
12.41 to give us a sell signal.. You can see the buy signal back here.. The next morning we traded back. in the channel, so you got
to buy it at a discount.. And now, looking up from where we started,
12.50 might have been too close for you.. So you've got an order filled up there at
13.28. Now we're trying to get to 14.06.. Then looking at the Nasdaq.. The Nasdaq hasn't really done anything.. It was very oversold,
but really hasn't picked up the pace.. We don't have an early
warning signal there.. If you look, you can see the pros have. given up control on the Nasdaq ETF,
and that's probably not a good sign.. We haven't seen a lot of downward selling
pressure just yet,. but the pros aren't that interested
in the Nasdaq at the moment.. On Wednesday, close below 8.57 would give
us a sell signal for this particular ETF.. If we can break out above 9.38,
then 10.16 is our next profit target. and you should have an ordering up
there to sell a partial position.. Of course, the Nasdaq looking so weak,. we could switch between the bull
and the bear on Tuesday and a close above. 9.21 on the Bear ETF would
give us a new buy signal.. Now, it's important to remember that we. don't always get buy signals
and sell signals on the same day.. So you could actually get kicked out. of the Bull ETF and not have a buy
signal for the Bear ETF on the same day.. So just be ready if that happens to sit. on your hands and wait and see if the
market continues in the same direction.. Now, looking at the 2X bull. for the TSX Energy Index, and remember,
this is the energy sector.. These are stocks we're watching,
not the commodities themselves.. There's an early warning signal up there,
but we've played through it.. We made a new high yesterday,
so there was a buy signal back there. and the market gapped up,
filled the open gap and then moved on.. So the next morning you came in,. you bought at the open and we've
been moving up ever since.. You've had the chance to take money
off the table at $50 and at 56.. 25 now, you still should have
a partial position left.. Trying to get rid of that at 62.
50.. Now, looking at the Gold Miners 2X ETF,
you can see this sector has not been. performing well for the
past six months or so.. You can see that it was
in a big bear market.. And of course, if. something's in a bear market, we're making
money because we're along the Bear ETF.. But here we are, we've been trading
sideways for a few months now.. We're currently long the bull ETF.. Things would change on Wednesday
with a closed blow 10.60. We're trying. to get to 12.50 and we're having
a really hard time doing that.. So there's a good chance that we may see
a sell signal for the bull and we'd need. a close above 8.86 to give us a buy
signal for the Bear ETF on Wednesday.. And that, of course,
is for the Gold Miners ETF.. OK, folks, that's all for this
morning's presentation.. I hope you found that useful.. If you have any questions at all,
please drop me an email.. Have a great day.. Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Thursday morning..