Hello, everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here. from theuptrend.com with this weekend's
edition of Stock Market Timing Television.. Well if you were with us at this time last. week, we were focused
on what wasn't working.. The Dow was leading the market higher
and we were watching to see if the rest. of the market would start to catch up or
if the market would start to reverse.. And of the market certainly did some. catching up this week and what
a difference a week makes.. Now the market moved sharply off. of the smallest inflation data point
and one data point does not make a trend.. And so one wonders what will happen if we. get a data point of that size
in the opposite direction?. Will the market move just as swiftly
down as it did up this week?. Well the market action we saw this week. certainly fits into the seasonality chart
where we get a rally in early November. and then we get some sort of pullback
before we head up into December.. We'll just have to see how that works out.. Looking at the VIX.. The VIX has been on the sell signal for
the last three weeks and we headed lower.. So we're going to remain longterm bullish. on the market as long as the VIX does not
close above 30.31 this coming Friday.. If you're watching it during the week,. this is the chart we posted last weekend,
daily chart of the VIX and we were looking. for a close above 28.01. That did not happen during the week.. We made a high on Thursday and then
a quick reversal to the downside.. So on Monday we're looking
for a close above 26.58.. If that were to happen of course
that would change our view on the market. on a short term basis
from bullish to bearish.. Now we have to be quite impressed
that the market was able to catch up. with the seasonality chart this week
and put everything back in order.. I'm not sure how long the market is going
to be able to keep that up though we do. have still have inflation to deal
with and the oncoming recession. and central banks are still
raising rates around the world.. So I don't think that's going
to change any time soon.. So just like any other week,
you take it one week at a time.. This week is bullish,. next week could be bearish and we
could see a change in trend.. We'll just have to take it as we
always do, one week at a time.. Now we were watching the Dow
Diamonds lead in the market higher.. It broke through the October highs,. the September highs, and now it's
heading up towards the August highs.. Now the rest of the market is playing. catch up and we're looking at daily
charts here that you can see.. The SPY ETF actually joined the party. on Thursday and broke
through the October highs.. Now the next target that we have.. Mathematical target is 400 and 625.. But to get there we have to get over. the big round number of 400 and we
got as high as 399.35 on Friday.. So if we can break through 400, 406.25 is our next target to the upside.. And then above that you can see we peaked. in September up there at 411.73 and then quickly reversed.. Looking at the QQQ's,. they also joined the party on Thursday,
broke out above the October highs,. heading towards the areas that we
haven't traded since September.. And we're looking at our next price target. of 296.88 and of course just
above that is the $300 target.. Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60
trading, pretty much like the Dow diamonds. at the moment, heading up towards those
August highs, our mathematical target is. 31.25, but we veered away from that
in August getting as high as 31.20.. So just keep that in mind,. that's our next big target
to the upside for the Canadian market.. Now last week at this time we were talking
about the fact that the Energy sector has. been such a great performer this year,
but it is far more important. to the Canadian market than
the US market at this time.. Currently the energy sector is only 3% of
the SP 500 while it's 13.5% of the TSX.. Now going back in time,. going back to the energy sector was a much
bigger component of the S&P 500 way. back when it was almost like
the technology sector today.. But times have changed.. There's been a lot of consolidation. in the energy sector over time
and things priorities have changed,. the technology sector has become far more. important to the economy than
the energy sector in the US.. Of course the energy companies in the US. a lot of them are global,
so they're much bigger than the energy. companies in Canada which tend
to be a lot more local.. Now, what worked this week
and what didn't work well?. What worked in the Canadian market?. Well, it was the gold sector
up nearly 12% for the week.. Then we've got it the technology sector up. just under 11% and then we've got
the healthcare sector,. which of course includes the cannabis
stocks, up nearly 9% on the week.. What didn't work well,
energy stocks were down but also clean.. Technology stocks were
down 2% on the week.. Looking at the US market, well,. semiconductors led the way
up by 12.57%.. That's a good sign going forward.. If we can take out those August highs then
we're looking at housing which was up, 12.1%.. And then we're looking at the XAU
up 10.44% for the week.. Next up, let's take a look
at those megatrends.. And one of them did end this week. and that was the US Dollar index,
down 4.14% on the week.. That's a huge move for currency.. And then a lot of currencies around the
world headed in the opposite direction.. Whether you're looking at the Australian. Dollar, the British pound,
Canadian Dollar,. there's the Euro up of corresponding 14%,
Japanese yen up nearly 6% on the week.. That is a huge move and there's
a nice big move for the Swiss franc.. Now, bonds were also higher this week,. no major trend change so far
for the XBB in Canada, the TLT.. Now we talked about the merging market. bonds, they were leading the market higher
last week and we are back on a buy signal. for emerging market bonds,
but not for the junk bonds.. Still waiting for a close above 91.53.. Then looking at commodities,. we had pullback in crude oil down 3.6%,
still trading along the 87.50 level,. we closed at 88.16, so we're
still not able to break out.. There's no trend going
on in crude oil at the moment.. There's still a trend for natural gas
and unfortunately it's to the downside.. The only bullish thing is we haven't made. a new low in three weeks
and so we're down 7.66%.. And there's the price of copper up
on the week, up 4.35% 2nd week in a row.. Then we had the gold up the $68.0.50
on the week and that is of course. the following silver which has been
up for the last couple of weeks.. So there's all the metals up on the week.. Moving on to bitcoin and ethereum,
they are down sharply this week,. down 24% and change for bitcoin,
down 26.7% for ethereum.. I don't recommend any
of these cryptocurrencies.. If I was 40, 50 years younger I might. consider them, but they're not
something I'm really interested in.. The reason I'm telling you this is because
people often ask me questions. and my opinion and I really don't have
much of opinion on the crypto currencies.. Now let's finish off with the one chart
to watch, and that is the US Dollar index. had a major move down this week
and every time it's moved down in 2022,. we've got a corresponding up
move in the stock market.. And so what we've seen recently is back. in September we made a high,
then we made a series of lower highs. and lower lows and this week
we actually broke down.. And so as the US Dollar has been coming
down, the stock market has been going up.. So I think the US Dollar is the one chart
to watch and of course if that changes. this week, that could also change
the direction of the stock market.. OK folks, that's all for this
weekend's presentation.. It was a memorable week, one of the best
weeks we've seen in a couple of years.. Of course, we're going to look to see what
kind of follow through we get this week.. If we got a small pullback or an inside
week, that wouldn't be a big deal.. Of course, the first sign that something
went wrong is if we start closing below. the previous week's low,
that would be certainly a concern.. Or if we saw a big move in the VIX to the
upside, that would also be a concern.. But otherwise, we're going to follow. the money and see how far it
can take us into the year end.. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.. Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning..