Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Friday morning.. In the pre market this morning,
things are fairly quiet.. Employment numbers are coming out at 830.
So far.. Stock index futures are below fair value.. Commodities are mixed with crude oil. higher, while gold and natural gas
are slightly lower on Friday morning.. Now.
The US.. Stock market was rather subdued on
Thursday compared to Wednesday's trading. activity, but not so much
for the rest of the market.. Bond prices continued to move higher.
The US.. Dollar index continued to move lower,
making a new low for this move.. And we saw the VIX move lower on Thursday,
also making a new low for this move and. closing below the $20
potential support area.. Looking at the Dow Diamonds, you can see. that we closed slightly below the
previous day after making a new high.. That's also true for the SP 500.. The Nasdaq 100 closed a
little higher on the day.. And then looking at the Russell 2000, we. pulled back, not able to break
out above the November highs.. Now, things looked a little
different north of the border.. There's the I shares for this TSX 60. putting in a new high yesterday
and closing higher on the day.. Now, at the same time, we did generate a. bearish reversal signal, and we
saw a lot of those on Thursday.. When we analyzed this one, you can see. that we actually closed lower than
we opened after making a new high.. So that gave us a bearish reversal signal.. A couple of things to consider when you're
looking at that signal, because it often. marks the top four move, and that
certainly could be the case here.. But at the end of the day,
we still closed higher.. And then we also did not close
below the previous days low.. Those would be the other two
indicators I would be looking at.. We did end up closing higher
on the day that's bullish.. And we certainly did not close
below the previous days low.. So that is also bullish.. Now, at the same time, we're watching the
Ishares for the TSX 60, the TSX itself hit. our next price target yesterday, so
that is certainly a measured move.. And we have certainly broke out above
the August highs, and that is bullish.. We'll just have to see if that
resistance holds over the next few days.. Now, what spurred the TSX on yesterday?. Well, gold was a major contributor, and. there's the price of gold shooting
up above the previous high.. And you can see that we
closed just above the 1812.. 50 level, and our next target is 1843.. 75 and then 1875.. Now, to get there, we need to
take out the highs from August.. So that is going to be the first level
of resistance we need to consider.. We certainly have not
broken away from the 1812.. 50 level.
We just closed above it.. So that is the first step.. It does not look like we're going to try. to do anything about creating
new highs on Friday.. Now, gold stocks followed
gold hire yesterday.. There's the TSX Global Gold Index
making a new high on Thursday.. And there's the GDX, also
making a new high on Thursday.. Now, bank stocks had a few
interesting moves yesterday.. There's the TSX Bank Index closing
at the upper channel line.. We saw a new high for the TD Bank at the
same time, CIBC cratered on Thursday.. And that's not something you see very
often in the Canadian banking sector.. Now in the US.. When we look at the SPDR Bank ETF, you can
see that it looks like I don't know what. it looks like, but that
is incredibly weird.. It's not something you see very often.. There are some banks that look fairly. normal right now, such as the
Bank of New York and JPMorgan.. But beyond that, a lot of US.. Banks look like this.. Now there's one financial institution the. world is watching closely,
and that is Credit Swiss.. It has made a series of
lower lows this week.. And if we look at a monthly chart, you can. see this financial institution
has been in a longterm downtrend.. Just for reference, compare that to Bank
of America, which in the same time period. was able to move up from $15 all the way
up to $50 before pulling back in 2022.. So they are certainly
two different animals.. Typically, during a rate tightening cycle,. some financial institution
will have problems.. Sometimes it's a lot,
sometimes it's one or two.. And people are betting money that during. this rate tightening cycle, Credit
Swiss is not going to make it through.. Now, looking at energy, crude always up. yesterday, not enough to
give us a buy signal.. Natural gas was down yesterday, not
enough to give us a sell signal.. Looking at energy stocks, the SPDR Energy
ETF is still treading water up here.. That's also true for equipment makers and. explorers, all still
on daily sell signals.. That's also true for the TSX Energy Index,. still on a sell signal
here, treading water.. Up at these levels, we're up at the top of. the panic zones, not able
to retest the summer highs.. And then if we look at the US market Spdr
Energy ETF, we were able to not only test. the summer highs, but
trade slightly above them.. In both cases, our panic zone charts
are projecting lower prices from here.. Of course, the weakness in any projection
is we don't know what we don't know.. And that is certainly true for any
of the projections that we make.. So for the SPDREnergy ETF, we're looking
for a move down to $75 at some point.. It certainly has not started yet.. The first indication that that may happen. is if we start closing
below the recent low.. Okay folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. We're waiting for appointment
numbers to come out at 830.. I'm going to publish this
as soon as possible.. And then the translated versions will
be available about an hour later.. Enjoy the rest of your day.. Enjoy your weekend.. And the next time you'll
hear my voice is on Sunday..