Hello everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com with this. weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing Television.. Well the 50th week of
2022 has come and gone.. It was another very noisy week.. We had some inflation numbers come out
and the market overreacted to the upside.. We had the Fed announcement and the Fed. press conference and the market
really underreacted to that.. And then on Friday we saw the real
reaction to that Fed day with the market. selling off going into the close on
Friday, the theme here is still the same.. The market is topping right now and we
expect it to continue lower from here.. It may not do so this week, but we
are expecting lower prices into 2023.. Now let's start off looking at the VIX.. The VIX is broken right now.. It actually closed slightly lower on the. week after trading up into the
channel on the daily charts.. After the Fed announcement we came down. and actually generated a sell signal which
is supportive for higher stock prices.. But I think with the. big options expiration day on Friday that
the VIX is a little out of sync and may. take a couple of more days before it
gets back in sync with the stock market.. Now we've been talking about the fact that
the market has topped when the VIX has. come down towards 18.75 in 2022 and that
appears to be what happened recently.. A couple of weeks ago we got down
towards 18.75 and then quickly reversed.. And so we are expecting to
continue higher from here.. The bear market is probably not going to
end until we see the VIX back up over 40,. which would probably indicate some extreme
panic selling and that would probably be a. good time to look at putting long
term money back in the stock market.. Now looking at the weekly charts here
we're starting off with the DOWdiamonds.. You can see that we put in a new early. warning signal there at
the top of the screen.. We actually had a bearish reversal week.. We actually made a new high this week and. then pulled back closing
lower on the week.. In fact we closed below the previous
week's low, which is bearish.. And you can see down at the bottom of the
screen there that the pros are giving up. control of the DOWand that's kind of
important since the DOWhas really been. leading the market higher over
the past couple of months.. Now we ran up to the 343.. 75 level and reversed.. And where do we come down to this week?. Well our next mathematical
target to the downside was 328.. 13 and we closed at 328.
97.. So pretty close.. So we are looking to see if we
break that this week and then 312.. 50 would be our next
target to the downside.. Looking at the S&P 500 ETF the SPY,. our target was 406.25. We certainly had
time to lock in some profits up there.. And now we're coming down towards
375, this nice downtrend line.. A lot of market technicians are watching
this line closely, and once again, we. failed at trying to break
out above that trend line.. Now looking at the weekly right side chart
for the SPY, we did come right down to the. lower channel line, did
not close below it.. We're a couple of dollars away from
closing below 380 35 this coming Friday.. Now looking at the Nasdaq.. The Nasdaq really hasn't
participated in the recent rally.. It did pull back again.. It closed below the previous
week's low, which is bearish.. The pros have not taken control
over the past couple of months.. Unlike the DOWand the S&P 500, this
week was a bearish reversal week.. So we are expecting to go down and retest
the recent lows or even break them.. We are looking for a close this
coming Friday below 274.10.. We closed at 274.
25.. So we're right on the edge
of a new weekly sell signal.. And then looking at the
Ishares for the TSX 60.. Nice new early warning up there.. We traded up to the 31.. 25 level and reversed and came back down.. Our first target is 29.. 69 and we closed at 29.. 64.. And we also closed just below
the lower channel line.. So the TSX, if you're using the Ishares
for the TSX 60 to track the Canadian. market, we are back on a weekly
sell signal as of Friday's close.. Now, I've been hammering home the risk
off trade for the past month or so.. And the reason for that is there's
a huge divergence in the market.. Yes, the DOWhas had a really nice
rally over the last couple of months.. That's wonderful.. And we should encourage that always.. But at the same time, the rest of
the market was not following along.. So that's a big red flag telling us that
this rally is probably not sustainable.. Remember, the DOWis only 30 stocks
and they're very unique stocks.. Most of them are global, most of
them are not paying any taxes.. So they don't have as much geographical
risk as a lot of other stocks do.. Yeah, seeing the DOWmove up like
that, that's a wonderful thing.. It's just the fact that the rest
of the market wasn't following.. So the DOWis doing very well this year.. It's only down 6.82%. You'll see that?. That's not a lot when we look at some
of the other areas of the market.. Now, of course, you can divide
the market up by market cap.. And so when you look at the small stocks,
the micro cap stocks, you can see that. really no participation
in the recent rally.. Yes, we were able to generate a buy. signal, and now this week
we've generated a sell signal.. So that's over with.. So the fact that some money came
back in was not that big a deal.. We were looking for sectors of the
market to start taking out recent highs.. You've got to start changing the
pattern of lower lows and lower highs.. You've got to change the pattern, you've
got to start putting in higher highs.. Now the DOW was able to do that, but
again, not the rest of the market.. So more and more money was going
into fewer and fewer stocks.. And that's the recipe for disaster.. Now US Microcap stocks, according to the. Ishares Microcap ETF are
down 22.45% for the year.. Back on a weekly sell signal
looking north of the border.. No participation whatsoever in the recent. rally, even though the TSX was
able to move in step with the Dow.. No interest in microcap stocks whatsoever.. And we're down 38.73% on the
Venture Exchange for 2022.. Now, last week we talked about IPO stocks.. Again, no participation in the recent
rally, down over 55% on the year.. Then of course, another ETF you can use to. track what's been going on is the
Titanic, I mean the ARK Innovation ETF.. It's down 64.86% on the year.. And as you can see, there's been no new. money coming to this ETF over
the past couple of weeks.. Now, every day I've been
showing Apple and Tesla.. The reason for that is these stocks have
not participated in the recent rally.. That was a big warning sign.. Apple is down 26.1% on the year.. Tesla is down 62.44% on the year.. It held above 150 on Friday, but after
hours it started to break down below 150.. So I wouldn't be surprised if
it got down to $100 in 2023.. Of course, I'm not going to take any. financial positions based on that theory,
but now that we're down below, starting to. head down below 150. 100 seems to be the
next logical target to the downside.. We've got some mathematical targets in. between, but I wouldn't be surprised if
in 2023 we saw Tesla down towards $100.. Now, what is Tesla?. Tesla is a series of lower
highs and lower lows.. And until that pattern changes, then the. conversation is always going
to be about lower prices.. Let's take a look at those megatrends.. And no changes this week we saw
bonds continue to move higher.. I tracked the third year bond, but of. course there's the TLT and the XBB both
closing slightly higher on the week.. So money is not coming out of the bond
market to save the stock market right now.. Then we've got the US dollar.. It made a new low this week and I would. imagine the volatility was around
the inflation numbers in the Fed meeting,. but it came back and closed just
slightly lower on the week.. So this could be the time and place that
the US Dollar wants to move back up again.. Then, looking at the metals,
we've got copper pulling back.. Now, copper had a bearish reversal week a. few weeks ago and we have not
traded through that high.. So that bearish reversal
week is still in play.. Notice that the pros are starting
to give up control here.. They haven't abandoned Copper yet, but
they're starting to give up control.. Now.
They have given up control on Gold, and. Gold was down $6.40 on the
week, so no major selling yet.. But the pros have given up control and. they look like they want to
give up control on silver.. It'll take a while for them to get down to. that level, but Silver has been leading
Gold over the past couple of weeks.. So this rally may have
come to a stop this week.. And then looking at energy, Crude
Oil, nothing going on there.. Pros still no interest in taking control
and certainly no interest in taking. control of Natural Gas
at the present time.. Let's finish off.. Could there be a Christmas rally?. Yes, there could be.. I've been talking about the percentage of. stocks currently trading above
their 50 day moving average.. What we want to do is see it come down,. back down to the lower area,
the lower range down here.. We're starting to make our way down there.. But if we also take a shorter term view,. if you take a look at the percentage of
stocks on the TSX currently trading above. their five day moving average, we've come
right down to the bottom of the range.. So, yeah, there could
be a rally this week.. Of course, the first sign that something. new is happening is if we close above the
previous week's high, and I doubt very. much we're going to be able
to do anything like that.. So, yeah, there could be some buying going. into Christmas on a very short term basis,
but it's probably not going to generate a. lot of new buy signals on either
the daily or weekly charts.. Now the same is true for the S&P 500.. We've been looking at a market in which
was very overbought where the percentage. of stocks currently trading above their 50
day moving average was up at the top of. the range and we were
expecting it to come down.. You can see this week
that it has come down.. This is a daily chart, but at the same
time, while that's been coming down, the. percentage of stocks on the S&P 500
currently trading above their five day. moving average has come right
down to the bottom here.. So there's no guarantee we can
cluster down here for a week or so.. There's no guarantee that you're going to. get an immediate return, but we are
very oversold on a short term basis.. We are not oversold on
a longer term basis.. So yeah, we could certainly get a bounce. this week and get some sort of
Christmas rally into year end.. We'll just have to wait and see.. I am betting that we are going to
continue to move lower into 2023.. Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation.. If you run out of gift ideas, you can. always donate blood and
give the gift of life.. If you've got some time over the Christmas
holidays, I'm sure there's some blood. donors clinics somewhere near
you and holiday schedule.. We're going to do a regular
schedule this week.. I'm not sure when.. I'm going to post a video next weekend and
then the week between Christmas and New. Year's, I think we'll publish just on the
Wednesday and then we'll do a weekend. update on the following on
the New Year's weekend.. But I'm not sure that we're going to be. around much over the week between
Christmas and New Year's.. Okay, folks, thank you very much
for your time and attention.. Of course, if you have any
questions, please send me an email.. And next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning.. Thank you..