Good morning everyone and
welcome to Wednesday Morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the. uptrend.com in the Premarket this
morning things are fairly quiet.. Stock index futures and
commodities are higher.. Dow futures currently up 50 points.. Now Wednesday should
be a fairly quiet day.. The market is waiting for CPI numbers to
come out on Thursday morning and I think. volatility will start to expand
after those numbers come out.. Here's an interesting
chart I saw this morning.. Small business optimism,
it dropped in December.. What's interesting about that is the fact. that we're down at levels that we haven't
seen since back at the Pandemic lows.. And you can see the overall trend has
been down for the last couple of years.. So boots on the ground, bottom up. analysis, it's not looking
good out there for 2023.. Now if you've checked the news this
morning, you've probably heard that the US. is having trouble with its air
traffic control system this morning.. And that part of the market has been
doing fairly well over the past few days.. Looking at the Jets ETF, and then looking. at Travel Technology and then
looking at the airlines there's.. American Airlines having a new closing
high for this move on Tuesday and even. Southwest has been able to get back on a
buy signal over the past couple of days.. So air traffic control system down, that. might not be good for
these stocks on Wednesday.. Then looking at the SPY S&P 500 on Friday,. the market had a nice big pop and
ended the day with a buy signal.. We were looking for fall through to the
upside on Monday we got that intraday but. then going into the close we gave it all
up and actually closed lower on the day.. So the high for that day was 393.
70.. So you need to put a pin in that number.. Yesterday we did close higher on the day
but did not take out that previous high.. So we're looking to see if
we can do that on Wednesday.. That would certainly be
helpful for the Bullish case.. If we could take out Monday's high, that
bearish reversal signal is still in play.. It we need to close above Monday's high
to take out that bearish reversal signal.. Otherwise that is the high
for this particular move.. Now we're stuck at our
price target of 390.. 63.
So if you had an order in to sell that has. been filled over the past couple of days,
if we can break out above Monday's high. then 400 is a nice target to the upside
as a big psychological round number.. But you can see that back in November and. December we peaked just
above the 406.25 target.. Looking at the Canadian market
we had similar situation.. Nice big update on Friday, left with a buy. signal, looking for fall through
to the upside on Monday.. Again, we had it intraday and then
gave it all up going into the close.. So we're looking to see
if we can take out 30.. 56 as our next target to the upside.. You can see that 30.. 47 is holding us in check right now.. If we can take that out, then 30.. 86 would be our next target to the
upside for the ishares for the TSX 60.. Now the VIX is back on a sell
signal as of Friday's close.. That would change on Wednesday
with a close above 22.. 80.
Now the problem with the VIX and the. problem the VIX has had for the past
couple of months is in early November we. started to trade in to a range below 25
and above 18.75. We're really not going to. know which way the market wants to go
next long term until we break out of this. range and it doesn't look like we're
going to do that on Wednesday.. Now a couple of stocks
I watched very closely.. I'm still short Apple.. That has not changed.. That would change on Wednesday and caused
me to take action on Thursday morning.. If we get a close above 131.. 33.. For Tesla, we're still looking
for a close above 122.. 70 on Wednesday to give us a buy signal.. And we had an inside day yesterday for. Microsoft, looking for a
close on Wednesday above 235.. 86.. So far that open gap is
holding us in check.. Let's finish off this morning's. presentation with a quick
look at commodities.. Well, if small business optimism
is going down, copper is going up.. And if that is a global economic. barometer, it has been making higher highs
and higher lows recently and that is. bullish for copper and a
lot of the mining stocks.. Gold made a new closing high yesterday.. It's still stuck at 1875.. If we can take out Monday's high, then
1906.25 is our next target to the upside.. Going in the other direction
unfortunately is silver.. Not very quickly, but we've been
down the last couple of days.. The pros are starting to
give up control of silver.. That could put a damper on
Gold's movement to the upside.. We'll just have to wait and see.. Now when you look at this chart, you
can see how flat the public line is.. The public doesn't have a lot of influence
over the silver futures contract.. It does certainly have an
influence on the silver ETFs.. And you can see the public is a lot more. active in the ETF market than
they are in the futures market.. And so that's why you get the big
difference between that line representing. the public and that line
representing the public.. And as you can see, the public is starting
to take control of the price of silver. right now as the pros
start to exit the market.. Looking at crude oil.. We had an inside day yesterday.. Things would change on Wednesday with a. close above 75 72 and we had a new
closing low for natural gas on Tuesday.. Looking to see if that turns around.. It is up slightly in the pre
market on Wednesday morning.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. I'm off to donate blood this morning.. I hope you've got an
appointment booked soon.. There is quite a shortage
of blood at the moment.. Have a great day.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Thursday morning.. Thank you..