Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Super. Bowl Sunday edition of Stock
Market Timing Television.. Not a lot new to ponder this week.. The market US markets had an inside week,. whether we're looking at the
S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100.. So not a lot of damage was done.. We'll talk about resistance
later in the presentation.. The Canadian market was down on the
week, but no major change range there.. We actually closed within
the previous week's range.. A couple of things that could
affect the market this week.. We've got CPI numbers on Tuesday and then
February options expire on Friday, and. either of those could add to
market volatility this week.. Now, speaking of volatility.. The VIX moved up on the week. It
was up 12% on the weekly chart.. We need to close this coming Friday
above 23.03 to give us a new buy signal.. Of course, that would tell us that options
traders are getting a little wary of the. market and we're starting
to act defensively.. On the daily chart, you can see the VIX
generated a buy signal on Thursday.. On Friday, we actually moved up to. resistance and then pulled back and
actually closed slightly lower on the day.. So we're looking for a breakout above 21.
88.. On the downside on Monday, we're looking. for a close below 18.70 to get us back on
track and tell us that options traders are. not that scared of what's
going to happen next.. Now, we were watching the US dollar index,
which was up last week, it was up again. this week, and we're still
on a sell signal here.. But a higher US dollar may not
be helpful for the stock market.. Bonds continued to move lower this
week and bond yields were up.. The yield on the 30 year bond was up
just under five and a half percent.. If that trend continues, that could also
hurt the stock market, a sign that some. risk money came out of
the market this week.. We saw bitcoin pull back just over seven. and a half percent, and we're seeing a
daily sell signal. for bitcoin on Thursday and some fall
through to the downside on Friday.. Looking at the daily charts, the Ishares
for the TSX 60 still on a buy signal.. Similar situation for the Dow diamonds,. the SPY ETF, and the
queues for the Nasdaq 100.. So we saw some weakness this week, but we. did not end the week
on daily sell signals.. Now, last week we talked about resistance,
and all the resistance is still holding.. Whether you're looking at the Dow, the. Nasdaq 100, the Russell 2000, the SOX
Index, or the TSX 60, we did not punch. through or close above any of
those resistance levels this week.. Now, not everything is stuck
at resistance at the moment.. If we look at the TSX itself, it's
halfway between two price targets.. And what we're going to be watching for is. if we do get a pullback here, we could
pull back to 20,000, use that as support. and that would not break
the nice uptrend line.. If we start breaking the uptrend line then. the more it breaks, the more we're going
to get long term bearish on the market.. Now the S&P 500 is still
stuck to the 4062.. 50 level and if we take out last week's. high this week, that could be the sign
that we're going to head up and retest.. First of all, we'd have to retest the
summer lows before we get to 4375.. And again we'll be watching for any. pullback because this is
a bullish chart here.. We've got a higher low and a
higher high that's bullish.. And if we get a pullback, do we hold the. nice uptrend line or do
we start to break it?. Let's take a look at
weekly commodity prices.. We saw copper pull back again back in the. channel, so still on a weekly sell
signal, that has not changed.. Gold still on a weekly sell signal.. Now oddly enough, gold was
just down a $1.30 on the week.. So we had a bearish
reversal week last week.. We continued to trade lower that's. bearish, but we are stuck
at 1875, closing at 1876.. 40.. And you can see below if we continue
to move lower this week, 1812.. 50 and 1750 are the next two
targets to the downside.. Now silver continued to move lower this. week, so that's not a good sign for gold
and it's certainly not a good sign for the. mining stocks if we've got copper,
gold and silver all trading lower.. Looking at energy, starting with crude
oil, crude oil was up nearly 7% on the. week, but for crude oil that's not that
dramatic and we're still on a sell signal.. Things would change this
week with a close above 79.. 48.. Natural gas has not shown any sign of
upward momentum but it is holding support. at 2.34. And so this is the time and place
we look for a turnaround in natural gas.. So far we haven't seen
any real indication.. The first sign of course, would be a close. above that previous week's high
and that has yet to happen.. So thinking positive thoughts
for natural gas at the moment.. Okay folks, let's finish off this. weekend's presentation with
a couple of stocks to watch.. We've seen a pullback in some of the major
winners for the past month or so and we've. seen a pullback in Apple,
Microsoft and Tesla.. So now we're looking to see if we see fall
through to the downside this week and that. would certainly be negative for the
markets if that were to happen.. I was also going to include shopify in
this list but it actually rolled over on. Friday, so got a new
sell signal for shopify.. Of course before you take any buy signal. or sell signal, you want to check to
see what's happening in the pre market.. If it's not trading in the pre market,. then go into your brokerage account
and see what the bid and ask is.. Just make sure there's not a major. discrepancy between Friday's
close and Mondays open.. A lot of times stocks can get buy signals. and sell signals on misinformation or
misunderstanding or rumors or outright. lies, and that can be corrected
overnight or over the weekend.. You just want to make sure that things are. what's happening on Monday morning is
pretty similar to what happened on Friday.. Of course, if it's bidding higher on. Monday but not that much higher,
we're not up at the 68.17 level.. The fact that it's actually bidding higher. on Monday morning is good for
you because you want to sell it.. So you're going to get to
sell it at a higher price.. So don't stop taking a sell signal because
it's bidding up slightly in the pre. market, but certainly ignore a sell signal
if it's up dramatically in the pre market.. Okay folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation.. Just a reminder that this educational. video has been translated
into the following languages.. If you need access to the translated
versions of video, please come to our. website and sign up to our
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the translated versions as well.. Unfortunately, due to logistics, the. translated versions are not available
through YouTube, Twitter or Facebook.. Have a great time tonight.. Don't eat too much, don't drink too
much, and I hope your team wins.. Next time you'll hear my voice
will be on Tuesday morning..