Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the. uptrend.com in the Premarket this
morning, things are fairly mixed.. We've got Dow futures higher, while the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading lower.. Commodities are also mixed, with gold. slightly lower, while natural gas
and crude oil are slightly higher.. On Thursday morning,. let's start off looking at the VIX and the
VIX that traded in the channel yesterday.. We need to close below $20.36 to
give us a sell signal on Thursday.. The US dollar index pulled back
into the channel on Wednesday.. No change in trend there.. The 30 year bond made a new low yesterday.. We also saw selling in emerging market and. junk bonds, and we saw
upward pressure on yields.. 30 year yield moved up slightly, while the
five year yield moved up more. aggressively, making a
new high for this move.. So again, it's shorter term rates over. longer term rates, which is
negative for the stock market.. Now, gold moved up yesterday
looking for a close above 1852.. 90 on Thursday to give us a buy
signal for the price of gold.. Silver moved up, but just
to the lower channel line.. Looking at the S&P 500, it was down
yesterday, made a new low for this move.. The Nasdaq getting pretty
close to making a new low.. Both of them are down in the pre market. and both of them are down in the pre
market, probably because of Tesla.. Now, Tesla needs to close below 196.. 73 on Thursday to give us a sell signal.. We are trading below that level in the pre. market this morning, looking
for support at the 187.. 50 level.
So because of the size of Tesla and the. fact that it's not in the Dow, it's in the
Nasdaq 100 and the SP 500, it is putting. downward pressure on those
two indices, but not the Dow.. Now, another stock that's down in the. Premarket this morning
is Silver Lake Capital.. Looking across the bottom of the screen,. you know this is dead money and it's not
something that you should ever go near.. You can see that at the top left hand. corner of the screen, the
stock was trading at $110.. It's currently trading just
above $9 at the moment.. So no change in trend for that stock, but. it is down sharply in the
pre market this morning.. Now, another stock that people are
talking about this morning is snowflake.. And snowflake is down over $10.. And that should take us down to
make a new low for this move.. Certainly no change in
trend for snowflake.. Now, looking at the Dow, it
made a new low yesterday.. It is up in the Premarket this morning. because of one stock,
and that is salesforce.. Salesforce ended yesterday on a buy
signal, but this morning it is popping and. it is trading above our
projected trading range.. That's a huge move up for any stock.. Obviously, you're going to see some short
covering at the open, which is going to. take the stock up and
we'll have to see what happens next.. I would certainly not want to jump
in to salesforce at these numbers.. I would fade this trade as I
recommended you fade Nvidia last week.. And Nvidia has not been able to make a. move above that high from
when the stock gapped higher.. So Salesforce is going to pop.. It's, helping the Dow outpace the Nasdaq
and the SP 500 in the pre market this. morning, but it's not
something I would chase.. Let's finish off today's presentation. looking at the Canadian stock market and
we'll break this up into three parts.. The first part is the TSX itself
is still on a sell signal.. The Ishares for the TSX 60 were up $0.05. yesterday in the premarket this morning,
the TSX 60 futures are trading lower.. The ishares Canada ETF in New
York is also trading lower.. So not expecting any fall through
to the upside on Thursday.. Now, Wednesday's market action
was all about commodity stocks.. And we saw base metals scream higher. yesterday, right back up to the
high from a couple of weeks ago.. We saw money go back into mining stocks,. into gold stocks, and
into the energy sector.. Now, there are a lot of buy signals in the. commodityrelated stocks from
Wednesday's trading action.. I would strongly encourage you to be very. conservative, very restrained in
your purchases at the present time.. Previously, we looked at the seasonality. chart for the VIX, and the VIX tends
to spike during the month of March.. The Canadian market goes
in the opposite direction.. Historically, you can see here,
this is where we are right now.. And from this point on, we see some
selling in the month of March.. That's what the seasonalities tell us.. Absolutely no guarantee that's
what's going to happen this year.. But the fact that you know that should
cause you to be a lot more restrained. until we see a major bottom
in the Canadian stock market.. Now, typically what happens is we get a. nice up move in February, which
coincides with RRSP season, and then. seasonally after that happens,
they don't have any money left to buy. stocks in the month of March,
and we get a pullback.. It doesn't happen exactly
that way every year.. It hasn't happened exactly that way this
year, but that's the seasonal tendency.. So don't be overly aggressive with these. new buy signals because they
may not last very long.. We're still looking for
crude oil to participate.. It's still treading water
here in the channel.. Natural gas, on the other hand, has. started a new uptrend and let's hope it
can continue to move higher from here.. Now, the banking sector is really
holding the Canadian market back.. The Royal Bank rolled over yesterday, so. on Tuesday, ahead of earnings,
we had a buy signal.. Then you come in on Wednesday morning and
see what the market is doing, what's. happening in the premarket, and
you don't take that buy signal.. You either sit on your short position or. just sit in cash and wait
for the next opportunity.. Now what happened yesterday in the Royal. Bank isn't happening
today for the TD Bank.. Looking at how it's trading in New York,. last time I checked it was up $0.70,
which is a dollar in Canadian currency.. And so we're heading up into the channel
at the open on Thursday morning.. Who knows how the day is going to end?. It could end like the bank of
Nova Scotia did the other day.. And the Bank of Nova Scotia made a new low. yesterday before recovering
going into the close.. The first sign something new is going on
that's going on here is if we start. closing above the top of
the big down day or back into the open. gap, that would be the first
sign something new is happening.. We certainly don't have that type of
information on Thursday morning, so no. reason to get excited about the
bank of Nova Scotia just yet.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. Have a great day.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Friday morning..