Hello, everyone, and welcome to this. weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing Television.. My name, of course, is Stephen
Whiteside from theuptrend.com.. I'll try to keep this
as brief as possible.. There's a lot that you could say, but
it's really not going to change anything.. We really need to give the market time
to figure out what it wants to do next.. Now, we are coming into month end and. month end usually has
a bullish bias to it.. We're also coming into quarter end and we
may see some quarter end window dressing. this week that could help push
up the stock market indices.. Now, when we look at the seasonality
charts back in February, we were expecting. the VIX to spike in the month of
March, and that certainly happened.. Historically, after that spike, we move
down until at least the end of April.. That's usually bullish
for the stock market.. We were expecting the S&P 500 and the TSX
to both sell off in the month of March.. Now, historically, we're looking for a. move up to at least the end of
April, if not into early May.. Now, that may not happen this year because. there's a lot more going on than
usually happens around this time.. This time of year, we're looking at
corporate profits and corporate outlooks,. but there's a lot more on the table this
year with the Fed trying to fight. inflation and the Fed's also
trying to avoid a banking crisis.. Now, the market's been focused on the
problem with US regional banks over the. past couple of weeks, but the global
market has been focused on. Credit Suisse, which has been devolving
over the past couple of years.. And if you look at who's in control, you
can see on the weekly Who's in control. chart that the pros really haven't had any
interest in this stock in quite a while.. And so the company was saved this week.. The stock certainly wasn't.. The stock was down
another 57 % on the week.. So that is a banking crisis that just. might move from one bank to another
with UBS picking up Credit Suisse.. Now, of course,
Credit Suisse has been a problem for a. while, but the market didn't care about
it until the regional banking crisis.. And so now we're living with several
banking crisis going on at the same time.. Now, Deutsche Bank was
down on the week over 5 %.. It's been down the last
three weeks in a row.. Now people are concerned about that bank.. The US regional banks
have somewhat stabilized.. There's no guarantee that
we're not going to head lower.. But Fifth Third, for example, actually. closed slightly higher on the
week inside week for that stock.. It doesn't mean the crisis is over.. It just means it's stopped
for the present time.. Now, when I look at Citigroup, you can see
it's coming down again to the $40 level,. which has acted as major support
over the last couple of years.. If that breaks, that's going to be a very. ugly sign that we're heading
back down to the COVID lows.. Then we're looking at CIBC,
which has some US exposure.. It's coming down to the
53.flypaper58 level.. It's still a couple of dollars
away, but could hit it this week.. And that would be a big breaking point for
that stock if it was to take out that low.. The Royal Bank is holding up fairly
well still in the Fly Paper channel.. The TD Bank, which has the largest US. exposure, is starting to break down below
those recent lows from back in 2022.. And then we've got Bank of America, which
has broken down below those lows and it. traded down to just above the
open gap from back in 2020.. The top of that gap is at 26.30. The low. this week was 26.32. So we got two cents
away from the top of the open gap.. That's not filling the gap.. We haven't even touched the gap yet.. But you can see that there are some orders. in just above that open gap that people
are trying to pick the bottom here.. And there's certainly no evidence
that we have a bottom yet.. Bank of America still closed
down 2.44 % on the week.. Now, we've had some upward momentum here,. and it's mostly in the technology sector
being led higher by the semiconductors.. So the gains that we've seen
lately are incredibly narrow.. There's not a lot going on in the upside.. We've also had gold shoot up over the past
couple of weeks, and that has also taken. gold stocks to the top
of the winners list.. So we've got gold, we've
got semiconductors.. What's not working?. Anything financial dividends, preferred
shares, anything out there is all heading. in the other direction,
whether it's US banks or regional banks.. Now, if the global economy is going to
slow down, there's going to be less need. for crude oil, and that is certainly
reflected in the current price of crude. oil, which made a new low this week
before recovering and closing up 2.75 %.. Still trading and closing
below the lower channel line.. Did not close above the previous week's. high, so no sign of anything
new happening in crude oil.. Moving on to the VIX, and the weekly VIX. is still on a buy signal,
which is negative for stocks.. That would change this
coming Friday below 1975.. Now, looking at it weekly chart of the. price targets for the VIX, one thing
that's bullish here is we made a high back. here, and now we've made
a series of lower highs.. So this is certainly could be the start of. something if the VIX wants
to move lower from here.. On the daily charts, we did have that day. where the VIX came down,
gave a sell signal.. We talked about waiving off those signals. because we thought that
anything that was coming up ahead of the. Fed meeting or during the Fed meeting was
probably going to reverse fairly quickly.. And that's exactly what happened.. Now, on Friday, we closed at 2170, and you. can see that 21 59 is the
lower channel line there.. So if we're going to see more
negativity, we need to close above 2564.. If we're going to see some buying going. into month end, we need
the VIX below 21 59.. Let's finish off this weekend's. presentation and we'll look at the
daily index ETF charts that we follow.. Starting with the iS shares for the TSX. 60, we closed right at the
lower channel line on Friday.. Looking for a close on Monday above
29.99 to give us a new buy signal.. And of course, if that doesn't happen,. that upper channel line is going
to continue to move lower daily.. Similar situation for the DOW Diamonds.. We're looking for a close above 324.85.
We did get a buy signal on Tuesday.. We waived that off going into the Fed. meeting and still waiting
for reconfirmation.. The next close above the upper
channel line would do that.. And then looking at the SPY, we're
still on a sell signal here.. Again, we had the buy signal on Tuesday,
we waived that off,. and now we're looking for a close on
Monday above 397.06. Now, what is working?. Well, the Nasdaq was on a buy
signal coming into this week.. I had an inside day on Friday looking for
a close on Monday below $300.57. If that. doesn't happen, that lower channel line is
going to continue to move higher daily.. Then looking at semiconductors using the. XSD ETF, we were down 2 % on
Friday, still on a buy signal.. Things would change for the semiconductors
on Monday with a close below 197.40.. Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation.. Stock index futures have started
trading on Sunday night.. So far, they're above fair value.. Asian markets haven't opened yet.. So far, we know that there hasn't been any
new bombshells to go off over the weekend.. We may see the start of
a major banking crisis.. We've had some little blips so far.. Generally, what happens is everybody wants. to share good news, but nobody
wants to share bad news.. When there is bad news out there,
other people with bad news like to share. it at the same time so
they get some cover.. They're not the only ones that screwed up.. That could be what happens here.. We'll just have to wait and see.. I'm really not. interested in taking on any new
positions for the next couple of days.. We'll just wait and see what happens at. month end and see which way the
market wants to take us next.. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning..