Hello, everyone.
It's Stephen Whiteside here from. theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition
of Stock Market Timing, Television.. Well, this week was all about
getting what you expect.. We were expecting a bullish bias going. into month end and quarter end,
and that's exactly what we got.. We were also looking at the seasonal. charts and the market pretty well
played through the seasonal tendencies.. We were expecting a peak in the VIX in the
middle of the month and then for the VIX. to decline into month end, and
that's exactly what happened.. We were expecting the S&P 500 to make a
bottom in the middle of the month and then. run up into month end,
and that's what happened.. And we were expecting the TSX to do. something similar, and that's what
happened, sometimes you get what you. expect, but unfortunately,
there's no guarantee that that's going to. happen the next time we're
looking at those seasonal charts.. Now, going into April, it looks
like we've got four aces.. The seasonal tendency is to the upside in
the month of April, but of course, we've. got a lot of stuff going on and the
market could easily go either way.. The Fed is still trying
to fight inflation.. It's also trying to keep
banks from collapsing.. Now, with the Fed having to fight two. fires at once,
I think the stock market believes it has. leverage over the Fed in which
it can cause the Fed to pivot.. And a pivot for the Fed means that they. stop doing what they say
they were going to do.. It doesn't mean they're
going to decrease rates.. Maybe they'll just pause,
or maybe they will.. Instead of raising rates, they'll
say they're going to decrease rates.. If they do that, that's quite a message to. the market that the financial
crisis is much worse than we know.. And so as the stock market is going up,. remember, it's buy the
rumor, sell the news.. So if the Fed does decide to pivot, that. does not mean the stock
market is going to go up.. In fact, I think it's highly likely to go
down if the Fed does pivot as the stock. market is already pricing that
information in.. Now, we've been talking about
how this market is very thin.. Most of the gains are from a handful of. stocks, and it's easy to spot the handful
of stocks on this particular graphic.. This is a heat map, a 30 day
heat map of the S&P 500.. You can see where all the money is.. The size of the rectangular squares is
the value of the company, and you can see. who's winning Apple, Microsoft,
Google, Amazon, Tesla.. These are all meta.. These are all the big winners and you
can see all the smaller companies.. Again, this is the S&P 500, so there's no
real small companies here,. but certainly they can be
small compared to, say, Apple.. But you can see where all the winning
has been over the past 30 days.. Looking at the Canadian market,
it's more concentrated.. The mining stocks over here, the. technology stocks over here,
and then a spattering of gains.. While there's a lot of the Canadian market
is involved in financials and you can see. the financials have not been
winners over the last 30 days.. That is certainly no news to anybody.. But here we are.. We're seeing the market make
gains on the back of really a handful of. stocks or sectors, and that's not
necessarily healthy going forward.. Now, as we've mentioned many times the
Nasdaq has been leading the market higher.. It's been leading the market
higher from a lower point.. So it's not that impressive just yet.. But over the past couple of months,
it's been quite impressive.. We still have a ways to go before
we get to the summer highs.. Now, that's a little different
than the Semiconductors.. And we've been talking about the
semiconductors leading the Nasdaq higher.. They've broken out above the summer highs.. And so the next target to the upside is. this pivot point here from
back in the spring of 2022.. Now, if I didn't know what was going on
and I wasn't watching the market every day. and I just pulled up the weekly fly paper
channel, I basically look at these charts. and just say, Hey, the market
is in neutral at the moment.. It hasn't shifted into first gear.. It hasn't shifted into reverse.. It is in neutral.. And that's true for the
DAO and the S&P 500.. The Nasdaq is starting to poke its
head out above the fly paper channel.. It certainly hasn't broken away from it,. unlike the semiconductors, which
broke away from it a while ago.. And you can see the high we made
right at the start of 2023.. We haven't taken that high out yet.. So that's going to be something that's
going to come up over the next few days.. And if we can take that out, what happens. at this high from back
and the start of 2022?. So we've got a couple of resistance points. for the semiconductors, and we'll have
to see how the market deals with that.. If they can slice through those areas of. resistance, that's a bullish
sign for the overall market.. And then looking at the TSX,
we're in the channel, so it's neutral.. Unfortunately, money has come out of the. energy sector, but a lot of it has gone
into gold stocks, so that's neutral.. Unfortunately, the weight of the financial
sector has been a burden on the TSX.. Now, we did see money come back into
the financial sector this week.. We did see some daily buy signals,
certainly no weekly buy signals so far.. So for the XLF, we were up just a tick. under three and three quarters %, closing
just above the previous week's high.. That could turn out to be
bullish going forward.. And then banks, inside
week for banks, up 3.23 %.. Inside week for regional banks,
just up over three quarters of a %.. Then we saw nice big gains for the broker. dealers and for the insurance
stocks, which were up over 4 %.. Still having an Inside Week, and so you. can see that the financial crisis is more
focused on the regional banks and the. banks, but not really the broker
dealers and the insurance companies.. But again, we're seeing some daily buy
signals, certainly no weekly buy signals.. Looking at Canadian financials, we did. close above the previous
week's high up 2.93 %.. Canadian banks up 3.06 %.. Again, closing above the
previous week's high.. That could be the start of something
we'll just have to wait and see.. Now, the best performing Canadian
bank stock was National Bank.. Of course, it has very little US
exposure, up 4.32 % on the week.. In the US, the best performing financial
on the S&P 500 was First Republic.. Now, First Republic was
up over 13 % on the week.. But when a stock has fallen from over $200. down towards $10, it's very hard
to see a 13 % gain on the chart.. So it looks like an inside week for. First Republic, and of course, an
inside week is a week of indecision.. Now, the worst performing financial on
the S&P 500 was Citizens Financial.. It was only down 2.35 %.. Again, having an inside week.. Now, the risk on button has been flipped.. Everybody seems to be happy.. Does that mean that gold
is going to stop going up?. It got stalled around 2000 and it
pulled back just $12 on the week.. Gold stocks, on the other hand, continued
to move higher heading towards those highs. from early 2023 on both
sides of the border.. Then looking at the cryptocurrencies, we. only follow two and that's
Bitcoin and Ethereum.. Both of them had positive week.. So that's part of the risk on trade.. And then we've got the US dollar index. which had an inside week
closing slightly lower.. So if the financial world was about to. stumble, we would expect gold
to continue to move higher.. We would expect money to
flow into the US dollar.. That's not happening at the moment.. So we've got a lot of conflicting
signals here and what we need to do is. just follow the money and the
money is going up at the moment.. Now, the VIX has come down.. It is back on a weekly sell signal, which. of course, is supportive
for higher stock prices.. That would change this coming Friday if
the VIX were to close above. $24.93. On a daily basis, we made
a new low for this move on Friday.. Things would change on Monday for the VIX. if we closed above $22.92. Of course, if
that doesn't happen on Monday, that upper. channel line is going to
continue to move lower daily.. We're sitting right at 1875,
closed at 1870 on Friday.. This is the bottom of
the range for the Vicks.. That does not guarantee a reversal right
away, but it's certainly telling us. probably don't have a lot
further to go for the VIX.. That may tell us that we don't have a lot
further to go on the upside for the stock. market, but we'll just
have to wait and see.. Okay, folks, that's all for
this weekend's presentation.. There is a lot of danger in the air at the. moment, but we're here to follow the
money and the money is going up.. The VIX is coming down, so we're going
to continue to follow the money.. If we're wrong and the market starts to. roll over, we want to
be wrong for one bar.. And so if you're a long term investor,
that one bar is one weekly bar.. If you're a trader, you want
to be wrong for one day.. And so if the market starts to reverse, if. the VIX starts to go up, then we
need to take action at that time.. But we've got a falling VIX, and for the. most part, we've got a market that wants
to move higher, not all sectors, but the. market is showing that
it wants to go higher.. And we may see the bank stocks start to
come back over the next couple of weeks.. So just follow the money.. Don't worry about the news or people
talking about market crashes.. We're not seeing that at the moment.. Even though you can feel
that, we're not seeing that.. So yes, April can be a rainy month.. It's slippery when it's wet out there, and
we're just going to watch the money and. follow it and not worry about all
the other stuff that's going on.. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.. Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Tuesday morning. you...