Good Morning, everyone.
Welcome to Tuesday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com.. On Tuesday morning,
things are fairly quiet.. Stock index futures are a little below. fair value, but certainly not
moving too far away from unchanged.. So we are looking for quiet
open on Tuesday morning.. Well, yesterday wasn't that quiet.. We tried to move the web servers
and they got totally screwed up.. I don't know all the details of why we. couldn't get things to work, something
to do with the secure socket layer.. But we're going to have a meeting today. from 9 to 10 to try to
figure out what to do next.. And if they've got a simple solution,
I'm willing to hear it.. And if they can move things over between
9 and 10, I'm going to let them do it.. I want to get this over with as quickly
as possible so we can move forward.. Now, this week we've got some inflation
numbers coming out, we've got some retail. sales numbers coming out, and we've
got bank earnings starting on Friday.. So the market might be a little quiet
before those numbers start to come out.. Now, one area of the market that's. recovered quite a bit in 2023
has been the cryptocurrencies.. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are hitting new
highs in the premarket on Tuesday morning.. Now, gold pulled back into
the channel yesterday.. It's up a little in the
premarket this morning.. We need a close on Tuesday below
$19.85. 70 to give us a sell signal.. And crude oil pulled back yesterday.. It's pulling back a bit more
in the premarket this morning.. We need a close below $70.03 on Tuesday.. Not expecting that to happen.. And that lower channel line is going
to continue to move higher daily.. We hit the 78.13 level last week and
have not gone back to retest it.. If we can break out above that, of course,. we have the highs from January, but
then 81.25 would be our next target.. Looking at the VIX.. Vix traded up into the channel yesterday.. Again, did not close in the channel, still
closing below the lower channel line.. We're looking for a close on Tuesday above
$20.89. Of course, if that doesn't happen,. that upper channel line is going
to continue to move lower daily.. Today, I thought we'd take a look at the
Canadian leveraged ETFs, and then tomorrow. we'll come back and look
at the US leveraged ETFs.. I trade these as pairs, so I'm either long. the bull or along the bear, depending
on which way the market is going.. Of course, you can find these pairs
that we're talking about this morning.. You can go under stacks and you see the. CA2X pairs, and tomorrow we'll come
back and look at the US 3X pairs.. Looking at the TSX 60, you can see
we're still on a buy signal here.. I don't get overly concerned about
worrying about a sell signal unless we're. trading down at the upper
channel line or in the channel.. So I'm not going to read out
the lower channel line numbers.. There's no need for it.. We hit 18.75, got to lock
in some profits there.. In fact, we opened up above it.. So even if you had an order in at 18.75,
it got filled a little higher than that.. We're trying to get to. 19.53. If we can't do that and start
coming back down, of course, we'll be. looking for the bear ETF
to start going back up.. On Tuesday, we're looking for a close
above $7.06. Not expecting that to happen.. And of course, that upper channel line is
going to continue to move lower daily.. Now, there's a little more
concern in the US market.. You can see the S&P 500 ETF has hit the. upper channel line and bounced
for the past two trading days.. A close below $13.72 would give
us a sell signal on Tuesday.. We're trying to get to 14.84. That is
certainly a realistic target and that only. would come into play if we could
start closing above last week's high.. You can see we're still stuck to $14.06.
Then, of course, the Bayer ETF, we need to. close above $30.03 on Tuesday
to give us a buy signal.. Now, it's important to note that just
because you get a sell signal in one does. not automatically guarantee
a buy signal in the other.. So sometimes you have to
wait a couple of days.. Sometimes that other signal won't come.. You get a sell signal in the bull ETF, a
couple of days later you get another buy. signal in the bull ETF, and there was
never a buy signal in the bear ETF.. So that can happen sometimes.. There's no guarantee the
ETFs are not connected.. The only way they are connected is if the. same people are buying and selling each of
them, but they have no direct connection.. Now looking at the Nasdaq, you can see we
should have a bit more concern here as the. Nasdaq has traded in the channel
for the past couple of days.. And we had an inside day yesterday.. We closed down slightly on the day.. On Tuesday, we're looking for a close. below 10.59. Now, we've had lots of
opportunities to take money off the table.. So you're sitting with a partial
position waiting to get kicked out.. And of course,. you have the option of getting kicked
out of the bull and going into the bear.. Bear also had an inside day yesterday.. So looking for a close on Tuesday above
$26.71.. Now looking at the Canadian sectors, the
energy bull is still on a buy signal here.. We're trying to get to 25.. So far, we haven't been able to do that.. You can see the open gap was filled, and. now we're trying to figure out
which way we're going next.. Looking at the bear ETF, you can see
there's still some white space between. where we are right now and
the lower channel line.. So not concerned about
a signal on Tuesday.. And then looking at financials, now we
have the financials in the database.. They are very thinly traded.. So just be concerned about that.. The bull ETF is on a buy signal right now
that would change on Tuesday with a close. below 16.92. We're trying to get to 17.97.
So far we have not been able to do so.. And then looking at the bear ETF, we need. a close above $11.88. Again,
these are very thinly traded.. Anytime that you see a little spec like. that, you know that the symbol that
you're looking at is very thinly traded.. Now, moving on from financials to gold and. the gold miners have been doing
very well over the past month.. Here we are.. We're still above the upper channel line,. so not concerned about a
sell signal on Tuesday.. Inside day yesterday, try to get to 1875.. We're still stuck at the 17 19 level.. We're dancing just above it right now.. Inside day yesterday, we've
traded above the January high.. We haven't really broken away just yet.. If we can take out last week's
high, then 1875 comes into play.. And there's the Bayer ETF, which
also had an inside day on Monday.. Looking at crude oil, and you can see. crude oil took off last week and traded
up to the high from a month earlier.. And we're just dangling there in space.. Mathematically, we're trying to get to. 1563, but the highs from a month
ago are holding us in check.. And then, of course, you've got the Bayer. ETF and not expecting a change in
trend for either of those on Tuesday.. And then looking at natural gas,
you can see the bear ETF.. This is the bear that
we're in at the moment.. You can see we traded down through
the lower channel line yesterday.. So looking for a close
below $70.46 on Tuesday.. We're trying to get to
$87.50, unable to do so.. The high from back in
February held us in check.. So we're sitting here looking to see
if we get a sell signal on Tuesday.. Now, a sell signal on Tuesday may help
generate a buy signal in the bull ETF.. We need to close on Tuesday above to
17.41. We closed yesterday at 15.93.. So got a ways to go before we see that buy
signal in the bull ETF for natural gas.. Okay, folks, that's all for
this morning's presentation.. We are going to be tinkering with the. website between 9 and 10 this morning, and
hopefully the tinkering will not last very. long and we'll get back on
track as quickly as possible.. Enjoy the rest of your day.. Should be fairly quiet.. Next time you'll hear my voice. is on Wednesday morning..