Good morning, everyone, and
welcome to Thursday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com.. In the premarket this morning,
stock index futures are very quiet.. DOWfutures currently unchanged while the. Nasdaq is slightly higher in the
premarket on Thursday morning.. Let's start off this morning's
presentation doing a recap of the month of. May, and we can start off
looking at the S&P 500.. Nothing new here.. All the big cap tech stocks were the
winners for the month of May, and you can. see the majority of the S&P 500
actually closed lower for the month.. T hat's a problem we've been
dealing with for a while now.. There's the DOW pulling back
into the channel down 3.38 %.. S&p 500 closed up just under half a %
and is back on a monthly buy signal.. Joining the Nasdaq, which was
up nearly 8 % on the month.. Then looking at the Sox or the chip
sector, which has been on a buy signal for. six months now, was up
14.3 % for the month.. Looking at the Canadian market, and this. chart isn't as helpful, this particular
heat map is not based on the month of. May's trading, but the
trading for the last 30 days.. You can see the tech stocks
where the winners over here.. You can see that one bank actually. is positive, but that's based on
30 days for the month of May.. It was actually down on the month, so. not as much fun in the Canadian
market, which was down.. The I shares for the TSX 60 were down. 5.32 % for the month, still on a monthly
buy signal, so no change in trend there.. Now, we've been quite concerned about
banks in the financial sector in 2023.. US Bank stocks were down just a
tick under 7 % for the month.. Regional banks continue to
move lower, down 8.65 %.. So they're not getting as much media. attention, but they're
continuing to move lower.. Canadian financials were down 5.37 % while. Canadian banks were down
6.45 % for the month.. So in both cases, still
on monthly sell signals.. Now, what worked well in the US on the S&P
500, it was NVIDIA, which was up 36.34 %.. What didn't work on the S&P
500 was Advanced Auto Parts.. It's been on a monthly sell signal for a
while now, down. 41.93 % and actually just right down
at the lows from back in early 2020.. What worked in Canada?. Well, it's hard to notice on the chart,
but we do have BlackBerry back on a. monthly buy signal up
38.07 % for the month.. The big loser, Canopy Growth,
which was down 35.43 %.. The TSX is decommissioning
the Canadian Cannabis Index.. You can still, of course, trade the ETFs.. You've got the Horizons Marijuana Life
ETF, which was down 9.94 % for the month.. And then in the US, Alternative Harvest,
which was down 9.34 % for the month.. Now, if you're following marijuana stocks. and you're still looking to play them on
the long side, you really need to just. narrow your focus quite a
bit in your expectations.. We should have found support at the $10. level, and we're now trading at $3.10.
So that area of support has broken.. You need to just eliminate all
this previous trading action.. This market is probably never going
to come back into that range.. If we look at the weekly fly paper
channel, you can see that we're coming. down to the $7 level, and that's
really your trading range.. So if you're looking up in any of these
charts, and if they do start to turn. around and you do start to get buy
signals, the stuff over at the left is. just a dream that will never happen
again for this particular sector.. The sector is probably just going to get. eaten up by drug companies, and you'll
never have to worry about how the highs. from 2020, 2021, those will
never come back into play.. Looking at gold, gold was down over. $35 for the month, still on a
monthly buy signal, no change there.. Crude oil was down. 9.14 % for the month, still on a
monthly sell signal, no change there.. Now, moving from monthly charts to daily. charts, of course, we're still waiting to
see if the debt ceiling can get resolved.. In the news this morning, we've
got Salesforce out with earnings.. Now, Salesforce is still on a buy signal
here, making a new high yesterday.. Looking for a close on Thursday below. 208.60. So far, we were trading
down not as low as 208.. 60.
We're trading down to 21106.. Last time I checked, of course, that. number is going to be different when you
check out Salesforce in the premarket.. Our next price target was 225.. We hit that yesterday.. So chitchat, ng, congratulations.. You got to lock in some profits
at 225 before the pullback.. Now, I always like to look at the midterm. chart to see if there's any difference
between the right side and the midterm.. Right now, they are very close together.. So we'll have to see how
Salesforce makes out on Thursday.. Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a. buy signal that's supportive
for lower stock prices.. If we get a close below 1728, that would
open up the market to go higher from here.. Looking at the US dollar index,
we made a new high for this move.. At the same time, bond prices moved up
nicely again on Wednesday, giving us a buy. signal for the 30 year bond and
a sell signal for bond yields.. Then looking at the price of gold, gold. moved up yesterday,
looking for a close above. $2,002.90. That would give us
a new buy signal on Thursday.. Gold stocks moved up on both sides of the. border, but not enough
to give us a buy signal.. Then we saw crude oil move down yesterday,
1.88 % for the day and energy stocks also. moved down over 2 % on the
TSX, 1.76 % on the S&P 500.. Then looking at the iS shares for the TSX
60, new low for this move on Wednesday.. Looking at the DAO, the DAO closed. slightly lower yesterday,
still on a sell signal.. S&P 500 pulled back to the upper channel. line for the SPY, we're looking for
a close below 413.92 on Thursday.. Then we've got the QQQ's still up in the. sky well away from any potential
sell signal on Thursday.. Then looking at the chip sector, you can. see the big reversal that we
had and we did make a new high.. We did run up and tag 212.50. So. if you had an order in up
there, that got filled.. And of course, if we look back, you can. see we previously peaked back at
the 212.50 level a few months ago.. Let's finish off today's presentation
looking at a stock that came up. during a one on one tutorial on
Wednesday, and that's Ambarella.. It collapsed yesterday but did
not give us a sell signal.. So we're looking for a close below $70.57.. And you can see that it actually opened
below that level yesterday and traded. below that but did not
close below that level.. It closed at 72.32. So even though it was. a big down day, not enough
to give us a sell signal.. Now, if we go back to when this trade
started, and of course, it's the first. close above the upper channel
line, gives you a buy signal.. And then we're looking for the first close. below the lower channel line to
totally kick us out of a trade.. Now, while we're waiting to be kicked out,. we want to try to take
some money off the table.. 68.75 would have been far too
close to use as a price target.. So then you look up $75 and 81.25, those
would have been your next two targets.. That would be your playing field.. $75, is that a legitimate target?. Well, there's lots of support over here.. And so, yeah, that's a legitimate target.. So you would have put an order in to sell. half of your position at 75, then you
would have put an order in to sell half. your position at 81.25.
Any history at that level?. Yes.. So that's certainly a legitimate
target to the upside.. And then, of course, you could have put. another order in up there at $87.50
once the $81.25 order was filled.. It doesn't look like we're
going to get up to that level.. You did have a chance to lock in profits. at $75 and then $81.25. Now you're just
sitting with a partial position looking to. see if the market will recover or if
we do go down and close below the 70.. 57 level.. That's the number we're
looking for on Thursday.. And if we close below that level, then you. get to sell the remainder of your position
after already locking in profits.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. I see the futures have slipped a little. bit, but it's not going to
get anybody overly excited.. Have a great day.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Friday morning.. And on Friday morning, we're going to take. a closer look at the
Canadian stock market..