Hello, everyone.. It's Stepen White side here with this. weekend's edition of Stock
Market Timing, Television.. Now, this was a holiday shortened week and. the market does very focused on bond
yields, which moved up sharply this week. and looking to see if we can break out
above the 2022 highs for bond yields.. Of course, bond yields rising usually
equates to bonds falling in price. and the 30 year bond was down just a
tick under two and a half % on the week.. Now, there is a Fed meeting in the month
of July, and it's almost 100 % consensus. that the Fed is going to
raise 25 to 50 basis points.. So that's already baked into the market.. But as you know, if you've ever watched. any of the Fed meetings, it's
not necessarily what they do.. The market often overreacts
to what they say afterwardss.. Everybody will be keeping an eye on that,. especially currency traders, which have
been in basically trading water, whether. you're looking at the US Dollar index,
and of course, it's a weekly chart.. They've been trading water in the channel.. That's also true for the Euro.. So currency traders really just taking the
month of June off, waiting for something. to happen in July before they
put more money on the table.. Now looking at the VIX.. The VIX started to move up on Wednesday,. peaked on Thursday and had a pull back
on Friday, still on a daily buy signal.. Of course, on a short term basis,
that's negative for stocks.. Looks like we're catching resistance at. 15.63, which is where
we'd expect to catch it.. If we can start breaking out and closing. above 15.63, then 18.75
certainly comes into play.. Now, of course, what's happening on a. short term basis does not
affect long term investors.. Still looking for a close this coming. Friday above $17.49. So it came
down another 50 cents this week.. If we get a close above 17.49, then yes,. long term investors need to be concerned
about what's going to happen next.. Now, on the daily charts, we did get a. sell signal for the TSX
60 and for the DOW 30.. Still waiting for a sell signal
for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100.. Both of them did not generate sell signals. this week, even though they traded down
to the lower channel line on Thursday.. We did see a big sell off in the mid caps. and microcaps on Thursday, but they
came back into the channel on Friday.. There was certainly some interest
in buying some margins on Friday.. We'll have to see if that
continues this week.. Now, the market is, I would call
it, very unstable at the moment.. There's just a handful of stocks
still holding the market up.. What I would say to you is the first thing. we're going to be looking for, of course,
is a close below the previous week's low. for Apple, for Meta, for Microsoft,
for NVIDIA, and for Tesla.. Tesla gapped higher this week and
made a new high before pulling back.. It's a bearish reversal signal, but again,. we didn't close below the previous week's
low, so not overly concerned just yet.. But that is going to be the first sign. that something new is happening if the
market starts to give up on those stocks.. Now, when I talk about those big cap tech. stocks leading the market higher,
they're leading it in several ways.. First of all, their capitalization or the. value of the companies have
continued to increase.. But also, oddly enough, they're the
most actively traded stocks in the US.. Tesla is eight out of 10 days is
the most actively traded stock.. When those stocks start to pull back and
people start selling, that is going to. cause a cascading effect
for the rest of the market.. That's what I'm overly concerned about.. Now, at the same time that the stock
market indices have been doing really well. in 2023, being led by
those big cap tech stocks.. At the other end of the market, we've got. the financials, which are
still struggling here.. On a bullish note, in March, we actually. made a higher low for
the SPDR Financial ETF.. We've been on a buy signal for a month
now, but still haven't gone anywhere.. And a lot of that upward momentum has been. from the insurance sector,
not from the banks.. So the pros still haven't taken control.. When we look at US banks, we've been in
the channel for the past couple of weeks.. We have not generated a buy signal.. The pros do not look like they have any
interest in taking control right now.. Remember, we're looking at weekly charts
here, so a longer term view of the market.. Regional banks, yes, they've come off. their lows from a couple of months
ago, but still haven't gone anywhere.. The pros still haven't shown any interest
in taking control at the present time.. Now, what I'm probably seeing here is that
the pros aren't aggressively selling. anymore, but they haven't
come back to buy either.. With interest rates going to continue to
rise, probably for the rest of the year, I. don't see any hope that these are
going to come back anytime soon.. No interest of the broker dealers.. We have seen some positive price
action for the insurance stocks.. But again, the pros
have not taken control.. When we look at the Canadian market, the. financials have not generated a weekly
buy signal yet, neither have the banks.. The banks are still, the pros have
shown no interest in taking control.. They did back in April, but that
only lasted a couple of weeks.. Here we are looking for money to
come back into Canadian banks.. Certainly, the pros are not showing any. incredible interest in
the Royal Bank right now.. In the US, Bank of
America looks like this.. The further you get away from those big
national banks, then you get into the. regional banks and the pros showing no
interest in taking control at the moment.. Now, there are certainly some stocks in. the financial sector that
have been doing very well.. Berkshire Hathaway is one, and you can see. the pros took control back at the end of
March, and the stock's been moving higher.. In Canada, the Canadian version of. Berkshire Hathaway is is Fairfax and
pros took control back in October.. The stock has moved up. nicely and you can see it looks like the
pros are giving up control, but you can. get this chart action with the pros not
selling they just have stopped buying.. As we got up towards $1,000 here, it looks
like the pros have. stopped out bidding the public for
shares in this particular stock.. That doesn't guarantee that
it's going to go down.. It'll probably go down with
the rest of the market.. But this is not necessarily
a negative thing.. We need to have confirmation of
negative price action as well.. And so far, we haven't got that.. So let's just assume that the
pros have stopped buying.. That does not mean that
they have started to sell.. And we can see that as we haven't had any. major negative price action
over the past couple of weeks.. Now, looking at Fairfax, you can see that. investors since 2021 have
been buying the dip.. And so if we get a pullback here down to. the $800 level, which would be about a 20
% pullback,. we could still look for buying
opportunities after a move down to the fly. paper channel if that
happens anytime soon.. And of course, if we see a 20 % pullback. in Fairfax, we'll probably see a 20 %
pullback in the overall stock market.. Let's finish off with a
quick look at commodities.. No trend changes here.. Gold was up $3.10 on the week.. Silver was up $0.26 in change.. Trading up to the lower
channel line, no change there.. Crude oil traded up to the upper channel
line looking for a close this Friday above. 72.87. And we had a pull back for natural
gas into the channel looking for a close. below 244 this coming Friday to
give us a weekly sell signal.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this weekend's presentation.. We've now moved into that time of the. month where the market is going
to be focused on the Fed meeting.. They've already agreed that the
Fed is going to raise rates.. Of course, they'll be more concerned about
what the Fed says than what it does.. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning..