Hello, everyone, and welcome
to Wednesday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com.. In the premarket this morning, stock
index futures are fairly quiet.. They're slightly above fair value.. Commodities are mixed.. Not a lot of movements in
the premarket this morning.. We are waiting for the Fed announcement. this afternoon, and that's when we expect
volatility to expand dramatically.. Now, we are focused on Amazon
generating a sell signal.. It's just another one of the big cap tech
stocks that are starting to roll over.. Of course, this all started a couple of
weeks ago when Apple fell out of the sky.. Apple is still on a sell signal.. That would change on Wednesday with a
close above $180.02.. So far in the premarket, Apple is down
about 50 cents last time I checked.. So certainly, there's no direction
in the premarket this morning.. Now, Apple is part of the Dow 30.. The Dow rolled over yesterday,
and it is back on a sell signal.. So if we look at the rest of the tech
stocks in the DOW, you can see that. Salesforce coming into today
already on a sell signal.. That is also true for Cisco.. Ibm has been on a sell
signal for a few days now.. Then we've got Intel joining the party
with Amazon rolling over on Tuesday.. Now looking at some of the other big tech. stocks, we've got Microsoft
on a sell signal right now.. We've got Netflix on a sell signal.. We've got NVIDIA still on a sell signal,
having an inside day on Tuesday.. Then we talked about Shopify
yesterday rolling over.. It continued to move lower. and that put some downward
pressure on the TSX on Tuesday.. Now we still have a handful of big cap. tech stocks that are still on buy signals
right now, including Alphabet, which made. a new high on Monday and pulled
back slightly on Tuesday.. Now we do have Meta and Tesla both
trading in the channel right now.. If we generate sell signals this week,
that would give us a lower high for both. of those stocks, which, of course,
is a bearish chart pattern.. You'll notice on Tesla, we've got an open
gap there that is currently acting as. support, and we'll have to see
if that continues to hold.. Now, yesterday, I talked about
the tail of two markets.. We've got the Canadian market trying to. punch through summer highs while the US
market is trying to hold summer lows.. Looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, it. looks like resistance at
31.25 is held us in check.. Now we're coming down sharply.. We've filled that open gap and it looks
like we want to continue to go lower here.. We need to close on Wednesday below
$30.67 for the iShares for the TSX60.. Now last week when this popped, I. said I wasn't that confident in this move
because the market was being led higher by. very defensive sectors, which don't
usually lead the market anywhere.. But that's what happened last week.. And yesterday, it wasn't just
tech stocks that pulled us back.. We saw gold stocks trade back in the. channel and we saw energy stocks
trade down to the lower channel line.. In both cases, we're still on buy signals
coming into Wednesday's trading action,. but that could certainly
change on Wednesday.. Now, looking at the US market,
the Dow rolled over yesterday.. It is back on a sell signal
as of Tuesday's close.. It looks like we put in a lower high last
week and we're a day or two away from. retesting the summer lows, unlike the S&P
500 or the Nasdaq 100, which. are both already on sell signals and
certainly well above their August lows.. Now, when you look at the rest of the
US market, it doesn't look as pretty.. We've got the iShares for the Russell
2000 dipping below the August lows.. That is no longer an
important level of support.. You can see the August lows broke a while. ago for the microcap sector,
Semiconductors, and the DOW Transports.. Now, Wednesday is going to
be all about bond yields.. We saw bond yields move up on Tuesday for. the five-year, and the 10
year, and the 30 year.. Of course, the 30 year holding back a bit.. It's the shorter term yields that are. moving up faster than the longer
term yields at the moment.. It'll be interesting to see how the market
reacts to the Fed meeting this afternoon.. Let's finish off looking at commodities.. We've got copper back below
the lower channel line.. We traded through the upper channel line. for two days but did
not catch a buy signal.. Unlike the price of gold, which is still
on a buy signal, so it ended the day just. up 30 cents, so not a lot of
enthusiasm for gold right now.. Silver traded up to the upper channel
line before closing lower on the day.. On Wednesday, we're looking for a close. above 23.70 to give us a
buy signal for silver.. Then Crudol made a new high yesterday
before reversing, and it reversed off our. next price target of 90.63, got as
high as 90.75 before pulling back.. We're still on a buy signal here, not. concerned about a sell
signal on Wednesday.. Then looking at natural gas, we're looking. for a close on Wednesday above $3.05. You
can see that 293 is acting as support.. Looks like we're putting in a nice base. there, and wouldn't be surprised if we
could get things started and take another. run at the summer highs
over the next few weeks.. Let's finish off looking at the VIX.. And the VIX traded through the Upper. channel line for the second day in
a row, but did not close above it.. So on Wednesday, we're looking for a close
above $14.59 to give us a buy signal.. We're finding support here just above the. 12.50 level, and we've got resistance at
18.75. In the month of August, we did. trade through the top of the fly paper
channel, but we didn't break away from it.. We found resistance at the
200-day moving average.. If the market is going to have a major. correction in September or October, we
need the VIX to start trading above that. 200-day moving average, and we're not
expecting that to happen on Wednesday.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. Stock index futures are where I left
them when I started the presentation.. Looking for volatility to expand
dramatically after 2:30 this afternoon.. Enjoy the rest of your day.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Thursday morning..