Hello, everyone.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.. com.
Hope you're having a wonderful weekend.. Very nice weather up here this weekend.. Let's start off with a
little housekeeping.. This is probably going to be my last. video that I'm going to be
doing on Saturday or Sundays.. I've got some new partnerships starting up. and I'm going to be doing
regular Monday to Friday videos.. For many years, I didn't do a Monday
video because I did a Sunday video.. But to fit in with everybody's publishing. schedules, I will be doing
Monday videos from now on.. Now, some people are asking about how our. dog, Ursha, is doing and it's been
three years since we adopted her.. First of all, we fostered her, then we. adopted her and she's four years
old now and she's doing very well.. So thank you very much for
everyone who is asking about her.. Now, let's start off looking at the
seasonality chart for the S&P 500.. We were looking for buying into the middle. of September and then selling
into the end of the month.. We didn't quite get that.. We certainly started off on the right
foot, but quickly that started to fail.. We had one day where we closed above the. upper channel line that quickly reversed
and we've been heading lower ever since.. Our mathematical target was 421.88 on both. the daily and weekly chart and
we traded right down to that.. In fact, we got it as close as less than. 50 cents away from our price target before
the market reversed on Wednesday and. started to move back up
on Thursday and Friday.. Friday ended on a negative note, but it. did just start to trade
above Thursday's high.. Now, the US government is not. shutting down this weekend and so we
could see a relief rally on Monday.. If we do start to move up, you can see. we're so far finding support
at the 200-day moving average.. The 50-day moving or the 100-day moving
average is not that far above us.. You can see we're projecting up to that. level and then a reversal
back down to make lower lows.. We do have other targets
on the way back up.. The bottom of the open gap
is at 435.97 for the SPY.. Of course, we've got the August lows at
433.01. Then our next mathematical target. is 437.50. That doesn't take us
all the way up to fill the gap.. If we are heading up in that area, then. the top of the open gap is
just above the 437.50 level.. Of course, we'll watch that closely. depending on what the market does
going forward.. Now, the market started to fall apart
when Apple started to fall apart.. It took some time for some of those other. tech stocks to roll over, but it was
really Apple that started the move down.. On Thursday, it made a new low.. On Friday, it closed higher,
but only by 52 cents.. We'll be keeping an eye on Apple.. If the market wants to go up on Monday, a. close above $176.15 would
give us a new buy signal for Apple.. Now, remember, in the month of September,. we started off with a wide bar and
then we had two inside weeks in a row.. An inside week and then an
inside week of an inside week.. Price action was starting to contract
and we were looking for expansion either. to the upside or to the downside
and it expanded to the downside.. I don't think that's going to correct
itself very quickly, but we'll just have. to keep an eye on which
way the market goes next.. Now, the VIX is still on a weekly buy. signal that, of course,
is negative for stocks.. Things would change this coming Friday if
the VIX were to close below $13.88.. If you're watching the market on Monday,
we traded all the way down to the lower. channel line on Friday before reversing
and actually closing higher on the day.. On Monday, if the VIX were to close below. $15.74, that would be supportive for
higher stock prices across the board.. You can see we didn't make it too much. higher than the 18.75 level,
found resistance up there.. We'll be watching to see if we can take. out that recent high going
forward in the month of October.. Now, the US dollar index moved up, moved
up to our next weekly price target of. 106.25. On the daily chart, we dipped into
the channel on Friday before reversing.. On Monday, a close on the US dollar index
below 105.41 would give us a sell signal,. and that would probably be supportive
for higher stock prices at this time.. Now, bonds continue to
move lower this week.. Bond yields continue to move higher.. That was one of the reasons we're seeing
downward pressure on the stock market.. Now, while bond yields were going up,
utilities were continuing to decline.. In the US, the SPDR Utility index closed
down 6.89% on the TSX, the iShares Utility. ETF closed down 6.03 %, making new lows
for this move in both cases.. Now, the TSX has had a terrible year.. It's been in a tight range.. It's currently up less
than 1 % for the year.. So far, it's traded between these two. levels all year, and we've
continued to make lower highs.. We made a high back here, then a lower. high, then a lower high, and then
recently, we made another lower high.. That is all bearish.. Now we're looking to see if
we start to make lower lows.. So far support is holding at 19,375.. That is holding us in check.. We'll just have to see if we take
out this week's low this week.. Now, the seasonality chart for the TSX. puts more emphasis on October
to the downside than September.. September, we're supposed to see buying. into the middle of the month, then selling
into the end, and continued selling into. October before the market
starts to reverse and head up.. That's what we're looking for, is this big. end-of-year rally to start at some point,
and it certainly didn't start on Friday.. Now looking at crude oil, crude oil made a
new high for this move this week and ended. the week just slightly higher up
45 cents on the week.. The seasonality for crude oil doesn't look. good from the middle of October on,
so we'll have to keep an eye on that.. It didn't peak at the
end of June this year.. In fact, that's when the
rally really started.. The seasonal tendency is we peak in the. middle of October and head
down into early December.. Then looking at natural gas,
it's been dead all year.. I certainly couldn't predict this going. into 2023, but we've been trading up,
above and below the 3.13 level all year.. If we're really going to see things change. going forward, we need to see natural gas
start breaking out above 3.40.. The seasonality for natural gas
looks pretty good from here on.. You can see that we do dip into October,
but then we actually make a higher high, a. higher low, then a higher high
into the end of November.. From now to the end of November, things. could be good for natural gas if the
seasonal tendencies start to kick in.. Then after the end of November, it looks
like we get selling going into year end.. We'll just have to keep an eye on that.. Now, we do have early warning signals on. the weekly charts for energy stocks
on both sides of the border.. Looking at the iShares for the TSX Energy
Sector, we are still looking okay here.. We did trade below the
previous week's low.. Last week, we actually closed below the
previous week's low, which is bearish.. Then this week, we continue to trade. below, but we came back going into the end
of the week and ended the week up 2.69%.. Looking at the energy stocks in the
US, there's the SPDR Energy ETF.. We got an early warning signal up there.. Again, three weeks ago, we peaked.. The next week, we closed below
the previous week's low.. This week was actually an inside
week for energy stocks in the US.. In the US, in the end of the week, up
1.21%. I think time is running out for the. energy sectors on both
sides of the border.. If we go back and look at the TSX, the TSX
has traded up to the highs from late 2022.. So far, those highs are
holding us in check.. Then looking at the US. energy sector, we're trading up to the
highs from about the same time period, and. those highs are currently
holding us in check.. It looks to me like the run for the energy. sector is probably going to come to
an end in the next couple of weeks.. Then looking at the price of gold, it was. down $79.50 on the week, making a new low
for this move, starting to dip below 1875.. On our weekly chart, our next price. target, if we start to break
away from 1875, is 1750.. Then looking at the seasonality of gold,. it looks weak going into
the first week of October.. Then from here into the
start of December should be pretty good.. But so far, we have no evidence that the. market has started to
turn around just yet.. Now, energy stocks on both sides of the. border have been weak
for most of this year.. Looking at the GDX, we had
a made a new low on Friday.. Looking at the XGD, we also
made a new low for this move.. We've been on cell signals in both sides
of the border for quite a while now.. Okay, that's all I wanted to cover today.. I'll be back in the morning and we'll
look at some more daily charts.. We'll look at the most actively traded. stocks on both sides of the
border and take it from there.. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.. Next time you'll hear my voice, of
course, is going to be on Monday morning..