Good morning, everyone, and
welcome to Tuesday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from theuptrend.com.. In the premarket this morning, and it is. fairly early, stock index futures and
commodities are trading below fair value.. So far, it looks like we're going to see a. little selling at the
open on Tuesday morning.. Now, we don't have any major economic
numbers coming out this week, but we do. have a lot of Fed speakers out there
roaming the country, and that could, of. course, affect the market
on an intraday basis.. We'll just have to wait and see what
they say and how the market reacts.. Now, the VIX is still on a sell
signal, so fear is still falling.. We're looking for a close on Tuesday above. $19.19 to change that, not expecting
that to happen on Tuesday.. If you've been with us for a while, not. only were we looking for a sell signal in
the VIX, we're also looking for a. breakdown of the Uptrend line and a
move down below the Fly Paper channel.. And so far, we have got those things.. So we know options traders are
not overly spooked at the moment.. Now, the stock traders are a bit tired.. They took the market up sharply last week.. Yesterday was an inside
day for the S&P 500.. We're trading up towards the October
highs, still trying to break that pattern.. We made a low here.. We made a lower high here.. We made a lower low here.. Now we're looking to see if we can break. that pattern and possibly
put in a higher high.. There's lots of resistance up here at the. 437.50 level from October, and just above
that is the top of an open gap at 438.43.. Those numbers are going to play an
important role over the next few days.. Now, the first thing I look for is did
we close below the previous days low?. We certainly didn't do
that for the S&P 500.. We do have several open gaps below.. I always tell you to look at
gaps ahead of us, not behind us.. But we are expecting a little pullback,
a little consolidation this week.. Maybe we come down and
fill that first open gap.. We'll just have to wait and
see how things work out.. Now, on a short term basis, the market
is very maxed out as you could expect.. Here is the percentage of S&P 500 stocks. currently trading above their
five day moving average.. And if you look, you'll see we hit a new. high last week for this
particular time frame.. And so what that tells us is that the
day traders are currently maxed out.. They are looking to
take profits right now.. They're looking to see what other
stocks they should be in or not be in.. And so we'll have to
give them a little time.. Now, a pullback here does not guarantee. that we go all the way from the top,
all the way back down to the bottom.. But we do need to work off
this overbot condition.. We can do that by, yes, pulling back.. But we can also do that by trading
sideways for a little bit.. Now, for longer term investors
who really haven't been participating in. much of the market this year,
the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500. currently trading above their 200 day
moving average, we're coming off a low,. but certainly not as low
as we've previously been.. This chart goes all the way back to 2020.. If we're going to have a year end or. Christmas rally, why can't we just
go back up to the highs from 2023?. That could certainly be doable.. That's not too far away, and that would. certainly take a large percentage
of the stock market up.. Of course, if we can eventually break out
above those highs, then getting back to. the 2020 highs would certainly be a new
bull market for the overall stock market.. We're certainly getting
ahead of ourselves.. If we can just get from here back here,. that would be an incredible
year and rally for the market.. Looking at the Canadian market, the. iShares for the TSX 60, we're certainly
projecting higher prices here.. We've got an open gap to get over.. We've got mathematical
targets to get over.. We did have a pullback yesterday, or
expecting a pullback today given the fact. that crude oil and gold are trading
lower in the premarket this morning.. Those commodities are so much more. important to the Canadian
market than the US market.. You can see we're trying to get to 30.. 47, and just above that is an open gap
at 30.66. The US market has a wall.. There's the Canadian markets
wall up at those levels.. Now, what can hold the
Canadian market back?. Well, there's the financials, and they ran
into a wall at 343.75.. Energy stocks have just put in a lower
high, and they're starting to pull back.. There's certainly the possibility of a new. daily, short term sell signal for
the energy sector on Tuesday.. Then looking at gold stocks, looks like. they also put in a lower high on Friday,
pulled back on Monday, expecting another. pullback today with the price of
gold trading lower this morning.. You can see on the index, we were trying. to get above
281.25. We traded above it for a couple of. days, but couldn't hold
any gains up there.. Now we're going to be looking to see if we. can hold
265.63. You can see that acted as support. last week, so we'll have to
see if we can hold that.. Then looking at Canadian Infotech,
we ran into 187.50 and stopped.. We've been dealing with that
for the past couple of days.. You can see back in August,. we had a nice high up there, which
was higher than the previous high.. That was a little bit of a fake out, but. looking to see if we can break
out above 187.50 for Infotech.. Then looking at telecom services, again,. we ran into resistance at 168.75,
looking to see if we can take that out.. You can see that 175 is
a legitimate target.. Now we're trying to break this pattern
of lower highs and lower lows.. I think the best stock to watch
to see if that happens is Apple.. You can see we made a low in September,
then another low in October.. We made a lower high in October.. Now, we're looking to see if
we can change that pattern.. That would be very important
for the overall market.. This is the most widely
held stock in the world.. Our mathematical price target for
resistance right now is 181.25.. If we can take that out,
then 187.50 comes into play.. Let's finish off this morning's
presentation looking at commodities.. Copper made a new high
for this move yesterday.. Gold, on the other hand, has been
treading water for the past few days.. On Tuesday, we're looking for a close
below 1978 to give us a sell signal.. For silver, we're looking for a close. below 22.67 on Tuesday to
give us a sell signal.. Crude oil already on a sell signal.. Looks like it may make a lower low for
this move today, and that would take us. down towards the $75
level as our next target.. Then natural gas back on a sell signal.. Natural gas, of course, is nicknamed the
widowmaker because it is. so volatile and has a lot of trouble
holding a trend for any length of time.. Looking at the Fly Paper channel, we. traded slightly above it
back in early October.. We did not break away from it.. We really need natural gas to break away. and then that would tell us that a new
bull market in natural gas is starting.. That is certainly not the
case on Tuesday morning.. Okay folks, that is all
for Tuesday morning.. We are looking for some selling at the. open, but we're not looking for a lot of
damage to be caused on Tuesday morning.. Have a great day, folks.. Next time you'll hear my voice
is on Wednesday morning..