Good morning, everyone, and
welcome to Monday morning.. It's Stephen Whiteside
here from TheUpTrend.. com In the pre-market this morning, stock. index futures and commodities
are trading below fair value.. So so far, it looks like we're going to. see a little selling at
the open on Monday morning.. Let's start off looking at a weekly chart. of the VIX, and the VIX
is still on a sell signal.. That is supportive for higher
stock prices on a long-term basis.. If we look at a daily chart of the VIX,
again, we're still on a sell signal here.. And as long as we close below 14.. 42 on Monday, we will remain
short term bullish on the market.. Now, on Friday, I was going to do a review
of February, but unfortunately, I wasn't. feeling very well last
week and couldn't do it.. So just looking at the charts from. February, you can see the
S&P 500 was up over 5 %.. Looking at the seasonality chart,
typically we peak in the middle of. February and then sell off
into the middle of March.. We may or may not do that, but that's what
the seasonality chart tells us to expect.. Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq was
up again over 5 %, making a new high here.. Again, we're looking for a peak in the. middle of February and
then selling into March.. So far, that certainly has
not started and may not start.. Seasonality charts are no guarantee.. It's just an average of what
happens at this time of the year.. Now, looking at the TSX, we are up 1.. 63% on the month.. And looking at the seasonality chart, we. usually get buying into the end of RRSP
season, which ended last week,. and now we expect the market to
sell off into the middle of March.. Again, that has not started.. Then looking at a seasonality chart of the. VIX, you can see the VIX Rockets sharply
higher during the month of March.. Again, there's no guarantee
that this is going to happen.. If we look at the chart over the last. year, you can see that we did
spike at this time last year.. And then if we go back two years, Just the. whole first quarter,
we saw the VIX being highly elevated,. getting up over 38 before coming
back down into the month of April.. Now, stocks to watch,
one that I'm watching closely right now is. New York Community Bank Corp,
which gapped lower on Friday.. It's not something I'm going to trade or. ever look at investing, but the market
is certainly concerned about it.. It's something to keep in the back of your
mind that this could fall apart and. certainly cause a major
pullback in the market.. Now, at one point last year, we were. talking about stocks making lower highs
and lower lows, and Apple is starting to. do that now, and that
is a bit of a concern.. You can see on a weekly chart of Apple,
we made a new low for this move last week.. Looking at a daily chart, we're breaking
down below the 200-day moving average.. We haven't broken away from it
yet, but we are trading below it.. When We are trading down in
the pre-market this morning.. So that is a concern for me.. Apple is a stock I watch closely.. It's the most widely
held stock in the world.. And we are looking at the 181.. 25 level, and You can see we're starting. to break away from that
heading towards the 175 level.. If things were to turn around
on Monday, a close above $183.. 86 would give us a new
buy signal for Apple.. So far, we're not
expecting that to happen.. And if it doesn't happen on Monday, of. course, that upper channel line is
going to continue to move lower daily.. Now, NVIDIA is still the stock to watch.. It made a new closing high on Friday.. It's important to remember that
we've been through this before.. This is the AI bubble.. We did have a.. Com bubble, and NVIDIA looked like this
going into the pop of the bubble, and then. after it burst, it was down
over 90% from the high.. Just keep that in the back of your mind
that these bubbles usually pop,. and when they pop, it's not usually
very pretty on the way back down.. Certainly no sign of that
starting on Monday morning.. Now, I always tell you
to always be upgrading.. That's the only way you can
keep up with the market.. That's why the major stock market indices
continue to move higher over time.. You've probably heard
the term buy and hold.. While buying and hold individual
stocks is incredibly risky.. It's very hard to tell which
stock is going to be successful?. And of course, we can always look back. in time and see what would
have been the right move.. But what you don't see when you look back
in time is all the stocks that are gone.. And I always tell the story
about IBM back in the '50s.. Yes, it would have been a great
investment to buy IBM in 1954.. But would you have done that?. I mean, there were other computer
companies at that time competing with IBM.. On average, you probably didn't pick IBM.. You would have picked something
else which isn't around anymore.. You need to always be upgrading the stocks. in your portfolio to make
sure that they are leading.. And so the S&P 500 has decided
to kick a couple of stocks out.. They're kicking out
Whirlpool and Zion's Bank.. Those are coming out of the S&P 500.. And what's going in?. Well, Deckers is going in, and Super
Micro Computer is also going in.. Now, Super Micro is part of the AI bubble,. and it has gone from $100 to
$1,000 in less than a year.. Now, looking at earnings this week, Costco. is the one that I'm watching closely, and
it hit our next price target last week of. 750, which is both a daily
and a weekly price target.. The pros have been in
control since early November.. We're coming in on Monday on a buy signal.. Things would change on Monday if
Costco were to close below $732.. 22.. Now, we're almost done here.. Looking at the commodities, we had
the energy sector up last week.. Energy stocks in the US were up 1.
37%.. In Canada, they were up over 5%.. That's a lot to do with one stock.. Then gold miners were up on the week.. No change on a weekly basis, but
we do have new daily buy signals.. We ran into this situation a month ago.. The signal only lasted a day.. Hopefully, it will last much
longer than that this time.. Let's finish off just noting that a sell. signal is not necessarily
a sell signal for everyone.. In this presentation on a daily basis,. we're looking at the Daily Right Side
Chart, which is a short term trading tool,. and it's really designed
for swing traders.. On Monday, we're looking
for a close below $432.. 87.. Now, if you're not a swing trader, you're. going to need more
evidence that the market is changing. direction, and on Monday, We're
looking for a close below $423.. If you're a long-term investor and you're. not checking the charts daily,
you're going to need a close below $412.. 26 this coming Friday.. If you're a long term investor and really
don't want to trade the market at all,. then you're going to be waiting for a
close below $400 before you jump ship.. If we were to get down below $400, that. would certainly be the sign that
we are entering a bear market.. And none of those have happened yet, but. the first one we're going to react to,
of course, is the right side chart.. And then over time, we're going to need
these other ones to start to fall before. we get overly concerned about
the health of the market.. And none of that has happened so far.. When it does happen, when we get our. initial sell signal in the Nasdaq
or the other major indices, that's going. to be a short term sell signal, and
it's not going to be for everyone.. Okay, folks, that is all for
this morning's presentation.. We are for a little selling
at the open on Monday morning.. Not enough to do any major damage from
what's happening in the pre-market this. morning, but we'll just
have to wait and see.. Have a great day, folks.. Next time you'll hear my
voice is on Tuesday morning..