Hello everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the.
uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television..
Well, the Christmas season officially started around here this weekend..
We went to the annual local community.
Christmas concert at the Danforth Music Hall and we had a wonderful afternoon..
The concert was amazing, as always..
It's just wonderful to see how much local talent there is around here..
Now, we had a busy week, lots of noise,.
but at the end of the day, not much happened..
I still agree with this guy..
The stock market is about to top..
It might not do it on Monday, but I think.
the stock market is working its way to putting in a top right now..
Now, on Wednesday, we had the markets.
overreaction to the Fed Chairman's comments..
We saw the Dow up over 700 points..
Of course, that's the number the media likes to follow the most..
And what I was looking for, it seemed like a very suspicious day..
It seemed like a lot of short covering.
during and after the Fed Chairman's remarks..
And what we're looking for is some follow.
through to the upside, some interest, some new money to come into the market..
So if you follow the S&P 500 ETF, the spy,.
on Wednesday it had over 144,000,000 shares traded..
On Thursday..
Only 76 million..
And on Friday it was 85 million and change..
So as you can see, we didn't see a lot of.
new money come into the market over the next couple of days..
Now, looking at the VIX on a weekly basis, we are down another 7% and change right.
down at the lows that we haven't seen since the summer..
18.75 is our mathematical target both on the weekly and daily charts..
You can see that back in the spring, the VIX bottoms just around 18.75..
That also happened in the summer and I'm.
anticipating it to happen right around now..
Looking at a daily chart, you can see we're coming down..
We're actually broken through the lows from back in August on a daily chart..
If you're following the market on Monday,.
we're looking for a close on the VIX above 22..
66 on Monday to give us a new buy signal..
Of course, if that doesn't happen on.
Monday, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower..
Let's continue on and look at some of the other trends we've been following..
We've seen bonds move up over the past couple of weeks..
Whether you're looking at the 30 year bond or the TLT..
The TLT was actually up over 4% on the week..
Big move for bonds..
Looking at the US Dollar Index in another wild week, making a new low for this move,.
it's starting to close and trade below the 106.25 level..
We're still stuck to that level, so we haven't broken away just yet..
And of course, lower US dollar is supported for higher stock prices..
Looking at crude oil, crude oil had a wild week..
It got down below $75 before Reversing.
ended the week up $3.70. It's up another fifty cents in the Sunday night trading..
Looking at gold..
Gold was up $41.70. 1875 is our next target on the weekly charts..
On the daily charts, our next target is 1843..
75..
And if you look over to the left, you'll see we faded that number back in August..
Now, so far we've seen some very bullish charts for the stock market..
Whether you're looking at a falling VIX or a falling US..
Dollar..
Those are both supported for higher stock prices..
But when you actually look at the stock.
market indices themselves, they look like they're running out of steam..
And that's the theme I was going with last weekend..
If we look at the Dow Diamonds ETF, it was up .36 of a percent..
So a little over a third of a percent on the week..
After making a new high, we're trying to break out above 343..
75 and we closed at 344. 74..
So $0.99 above our price target..
Looking at the SPY ETF for the SP 500, our.
magic number is 406.25. We closed at 406.91..
Now, these numbers that we're hitting, these are profit targets..
You should be locking in some profits at.
these levels, but certainly not completely liquidating a position..
So 406.25. Now, when we look at the daily chart, 406.25 is also a daily target..
We talked about the open gap over here..
That gap was filled this week..
The high from back in September was 411. 73..
We got as high as 410 this week before pulling back on Thursday..
So we'll have to see if we can retest that.
September high or if we can break out above it this week, a lot of people were.
dancing and screaming that we had broken out above the 200 day moving average..
We haven't really broken away from it..
Yes, we started a trade above it, but we have not broken away from it just yet..
Now, looking at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, we were up just under 2% on the week..
Really no trend here for the tech stocks just yet..
312.50 is our next target to the upside..
And then looking at the Ishares for the.
TSX 60, we're up just under a third of a percent on the week..
Our magical number is 31. 25..
We closed at 31. 28..
So just $0.03 above our price target..
Again, we hit this target previously and this is the time and place you should be.
locking in some profits on the Ishares for the TSX 60..
Let's finish off today's presentation with a little bit of fun..
This week we are going to see a very interesting astrological event..
It doesn't happen very often if you live in the Northern hemisphere..
We are going to see a new full moon on Wednesday..
That full moon is actually going to line up directly in front of Mars..
And so if you've got a telescope, you can take a look..
It'll be very interesting to watch..
And as many of you know, if you subscribe.
to our service, I watch the moon cycles and we plot them on this particular chart..
This is a chart of the TSX..
And as you can see, we are coming up to a new full moon this week..
And if there's a void of information, if.
the market does not have a lot of external stimulus, you'll see the market change.
direction at either a full moon or a new moon..
It doesn't happen all the time, but it.
happens enough that I watch it every single time..
And anytime I'm taking a new swing trade, I'm actually looking at the moon cycles to.
see approximately how long I've got in that potential trade..
And if there's no external stimulation,.
the market might start to turn direction on the moon cycle..
Now, a moon cycle is not a reason to take action..
It's just getting you mentally prepared.
that the market might change direction this week..
And we need to be mentally prepared for that type of event..
Now moon cycles don't always line up.
directly because a moon cycle can happen on a weekend in which the market is not.
open, and so often they don't directly line up..
But sometimes the market will change direction on the Friday or the Monday, but.
not directly on the date of the actual new moon or full moon..
Now of course, the other stimulus that.
we're looking at, potential stimulus, is the FED meeting, which is December 14..
And that could be the other catalyst for the market to top at this particular time..
Of course, everybody's trading into the fact that this is a seasonally strong.
period, so we want to be prepared for change in direction, but we don't have to.
take action beyond taking profits off at profit targets..
And as you've seen this week, we hit a few profit targets once again..
And if you hadn't already done so, this is the time and place where you should lock.
in some profits, but certainly not completely liquidate a position..
Okay, folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation..
Enjoy the rest of your weekend..
Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning..