Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to Thursday morning.
It's Stephen Whiteside here from the optioncom.
in the pre-market.
This morning, stock index, Futures are below, fair value, Dow, futures, currently down 240 points.
The NASDAQ is leading the market lower this morning, come out of his mixed, but fairly quiet on Thursday morning.
But we made it through another fed day.
And we are expecting volatility to expand after 2 pm.
it did.
But not to the extent that it did on Tuesday.
So Tuesday, May turn out to be what some people might consider to be a blow-off top.
If we look at the other essential stocks currently trading above their 50-day moving average on the S&P 500 we're still up at the top of the range and that we certainly came up to the levels.
we saw when we talked in August in.
So that's one of the reasons that I'm kind of bearish on the market right now.
Even though we're coming into Christmas looking at the s p y Panic zone chart you can see we're up at the top of the panic zones.
Rejecting lower prices here.
Down towards the 370 level, we did punch through the 40625 level three times over the past couple of months, and then stopped.
So, we've had three tries at breaking out to higher highs higher than the September high and we have not been able to do that.
So that's a little bit of a bearish sign there.
If you look at the last two bars, you'll notice that we closed near the low of the day and that tells us that the pros were selling into the clothes.
I looking for a close on, the right side chart on Thursday, below 39534 to give us a cell signal.
And then if you want to give the market a little more room, of course, you can go to the midterm chart, and we're looking for clothes on Thursday below 390 to tell us a conservative investors.
are starting to leave the market.
Now, look at the fly paper Channel chart.
Of course, we've got the average to range across the bottom here.
I want you to notice an anomaly when we are topping, and if you go back to the left hand side, that's when we talk back.
I April in May and there's where we talked in August and here's where we are right now.
The average true range contracts around the top of a move and that could be what's happening right now.
Now your te date of the spider ETF is down over 14% year-to-year basis were down over 12%.
That might be a catalyst for people to do some year-end tax-loss selling and that we should see that happen over the next week or so.
And then look at the data itself, the average to range for the Dow right now is 506 points and change at.
So, you know, when we see the markets down to 40 in the pre-market, that's not that big a deal.
Certainly, the volatility that we saw on Tuesday is a big deal and may turn out to be the top for this particular move.
Now, looking at the Canadian market and again starting off looking at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 50-day moving average.
CSX composite made a multi-year high over the past couple of weeks, and has started to pull back, the TSX attracted a fairly well for a while, but now, it has started to break down, so of.
the four, major indexes that we follow each day.
That the TSX was the first one to generate a cell signal.
Now again, if you look at the average, true range will see if contracted when the market is speaking.
And it has currently contracted quite a bit and there you'll also see that at the bottom.
There's a lot more volatility at the bottom of a move then there is at the top of a move.
So I looking for the check TSX to continue lower from here, out of the moving averages between a day moving average is still acting as support, but that will probably change on Thursday, conservative investors have.
already started to sell the TSX and we've got a sell signal on the midterm chart of the pros have given up control the high chairs for the TSX.
60 are on a daily right side cell signal.
The new low yesterday looking for that to continue on Thursday.
If the market where to turn around, sharply, we need to close on Thursday about $3093.
Now, the Vic's acted a little strangely on Wednesday.
It actually ended the day on a cell signal.
There's a big option, expiration date on Friday and I think the Vic's might be a bit screwy for the next couple of days and then might we might have to wait till next week before it.
Comes back and sinks up with the overall stock market.
Now my internal confidence has been low this week, I've been waiting for a Buy Signal, an apple and still short Apple.
The trade hasn't done anything over the past couple of weeks were in a range but is still on a cell signal.
I'm still watching Tesla closely to see how low it can go.
I might turn around to be an incredible by at some point but that isn't on Thursday morning and there's headlines out.
The deal on is still Selling a lot of Tesla shares and I'm still short Amazon that did not change on Tuesday.
Got pretty close to changing on Tuesday, but it didn't, I'm still short Goldman Sachs another stock that did not generate a bicycle on Tuesday.
So you can see, my internal confidence is rather low.
I given the market activity this week in the fact that the stocks that I follow didn't didn't generate new by signals and I've got something to do this morning and the CME actually generated a cell.
signal yesterday.
So I'm going to get rid of the rest of my long position and go short to see me at the open on Thursday, last up.
Look at those megatrends that did not change on Wednesday.
So we got the us.
dollar Index.
Making a new low on Wednesday, we had an inside day for bonds closing slightly lower.
Had it inside day for gold closing slightly lower on the day.
I could all continue to move higher.
It's moving up again.
In the pre-market this morning not by a lot but it's still moving up and natural gas had to pull back.
I know Wednesday looking for clothes on Thursday below 5:40 to give us a new daily sell signal.
Okay folks that is all for this morning's presentation looking for some selling at the open have a great day.
Next time you hear my voice is on Friday morning.